Estimating Trophic State Proportions of a Regional Lake Population: Are Larger Samples Always Better?

During the summers of 1991–1994, the Environmental Monitoringand Assessment Program (EMAP) sampled 344 lakes throughout thenortheastern United States using a proportional stratified sampling design based on lake size. Approximately one-quarter ofthe 344 lakes were sampled each year (4 years) for totalphosphorus to determine the proportion (and associated95% confidence intervals) of the northeast lake population 1ha (11,076 ± 1,699 lakes) that was in oligotrophic,mesotrophic, eutrophic, or heupereutropic (4 classes) conditionaccording to the total phosphorus criteria of the North AmericaLake Manegement Society. Estimates for the second, third, andfourth yr were developed as cumulative of the previous yrsamples and the current yr samples for the northeast as a wholeand for each of its three ecoregions (4 regions). New confidence intervals were computed for each cumulative yrcondition estimate. This produced a total (4 years × 4classes × 4 regions) of 64 cumulative yr tropic conditionestimates. Confidence intervals for 21% of these estimates didnot shorten with increased sample size. This phenomena raisedquestions about the accuracy of estimates based on cumulativesampling procedures. We explain why and how the phenomenon comesabout with both straight random and proportional randomsampling. Further, we present an example of the effects thisphenomenon has on lake tropic state condition estimates in thenortheastern United States.     

灰色系统模型GM（1,1）在大气环境浓度预测中的应用

运用灰色系统理论，结合实例详细介绍了ＧＭ（１，１）模型在大气环境浓度预测中的应用。     

江苏省盐城市环境空气质量综合评价及整治对策

随着经济发展的加速,盐城已逐步融入长三角经济体系中,城市现代化建设正在大踏步向前迈进,城市生态环境问题也日益受到关注,生态环境问题已成为社会关注的焦点,是衡量盐城社会经济发展的重要指标,实现环境、经济、社会的和谐发展已逐步成为人们的共识.文章针对盐城环境空气质量问题,运用SO2、NO2和PM10等指标表示空气环境质量,采用模糊综合评价方法对盐城空气环境质量等级进行了划分,并采用API指数评价方法对污染程度作出了评价,分析了盐城环境空气质量面临的挑战,提出了盐城市区污染的防控措施.     

新疆D矿田金矿资源定量评价

本文在建立D矿田找矿信息层次模型基础上,确定矿田统计单元划分和地质变量提取的赋值原则,将该矿田划分出466个统计单元,提取25个地质变量并进行二态赋值,而后应用数量化理论Ⅲ。特征分析法及勃尔法等方法,建立了矿田金矿资源定量评价模型,定位预测了45个勘探靶区。     

Exploring the Theoretical Interface of Climate Change and Resource Dependency: Application to the Vulnerability of Boreal Forest Regions

This paper addresses the combined effects of two sources of disturbance on the boreal forest – climate change and the economic relations of industrial forestry. It describes a theoretical blueprint constructed of concepts from the theory of dissipative structures (derived from the discipline of physical chemistry) and world-systems theory (derived from the discipline of sociology) into a proposed integrated theory pivoting on the concept of social vulnerability. The goal is to examine the key concepts of this theory – vulnerability, resilience and adaptive capacity – as elements of the complex systems perspective provided by dissipative structure principles. The focus on social vulnerability provides the means to establish the role of external economic linkages relevant to industrial forestry – the core/periphery relations of the world-system – as they influence the social vulnerability of the boreal forest SESs. These systems are posited as embedded peripheries, following world-system criteria, and as the focal scale of analysis within a larger hierarchically organized dissipative structure. The goal is to suggest and stimulate ideas for further discussion and exploration, motivated by the premise that any successful climate change mitigation efforts depend on having sound theoretical foundations on which to stand.     

非线性灰色模型在污染物总量预测中的应用

在前人工作的基础之上介绍了几种修正的ＧＭ（１，１）非线性模型，并以衡阳市１９９０～１９９６年城区污染物总量（ＣＯＤ）的预测为例，探讨了各种模型的应用效果。结果表明：非线性模型的拟合精度更高，具有更加广阔的发展前景。     

多环芳烃的分配系数与双区理论

以双区理论为基础,提出了多环芳烃的致癌性与其分配系数之间的定量关系方程,并利用该方程计算了77个多环芳烃的致癌性。计算值与实验值基本符合。     

随机模拟在常州运河水质规划中的应用

以常州运河的水质规划为实例,讨论了确定性水质模型的随机模拟。讨论中引进了主观概率和客观概率的概念,用泰勒级数确定客观概率分布,用可能最大机率法估计主观概率分布,并给出了在实施不同规划方案时的水质概率曲线和水质达标的保证率。计算结果表明,使水质恶化的各种随机因素的作用不容忽视,各种水污染治理措施只能降低水质超标的风险水平。     

生物膜反应器在水处理中的应用

简述了生物膜技术的传质理论，并且对水处理工程中常用的各种类型生物膜反应器的应用和发展作了详细的论述．最后提出了生物膜反应器的发展方向。     

水质综合评价灰色理论模型及其应用

根据灰色关联度的定义，运用广义加权距离构造目标函数，建立了一种水质综合评价的灰色理论模型。综合实例说明了该模型的应用，得到与用其它方法评价完全一致的结果，该模型数学推导严谨，科学合理，分辨率高，可靠性强 。