A hierarchical Bayesian non-linear spatio-temporal model for the spread of invasive species with application to the Eurasian Collared-Dove

The spread of invasive species is a long studied subject that garners much interest in the ecological research community. Historically the phenomenon has been approached using a purely deterministic mathematical framework (usually involving differential equations of some form). These methods, while scientifically meaningful, are generally highly simplified and fail to account for uncertainty in the data and process, of which our knowledge could not possibly exist without error. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for population spread that accommodates data sources with errors, dependence structures between population dynamics parameters, and takes into account prior scientific understanding via non-linear relationships between model parameters and space-time response variables. We model the process (i.e., the bird population in this case) as a Poisson response with spatially varying diffusion coefficients as well as a logistic population growth term using a common reaction-diffusion equation that realistically mimics the ecological process. We focus the application on the ongoing invasion of the Eurasian Collared-Dove.     

近5年增强UV-B辐射对植物影响的研究进展

综合分析了近5年增强UV-B辐射对植物影响的最新研究进展.结果发现近5年来增强UV-B辐射对植物影响的研究明显具有以下趋势:1)增强UV-B辐射对植物个体影响的研究总体上趋于减少;2)对植物信号转导的研究日益增多;3)植物对增强UV-B辐射胁迫的防卫机制和伤害修复研究仍是重点,但更偏重于防卫机制方面的研究;4)更加重视对植物群体及生态系统影响的研究;5)增强UV-B辐射与其它因子(环境背景因子和污染胁迫因子)的复合作用研究成为新的热点和重点.根据近5年的研究进展,推断在今后一段时间内,有关增强UV-B辐射对植物和生态系统影响的研究还会加强,信号转导、分子水平机理以及增强UV-B辐射与其它因子的复合作用研究可能是今后的研究热点.     

Cost-Effective Suppression and Eradication of Invasive Predators

Abstract: Introduced predators can have pronounced effects on naïve prey species; thus, predator control is often essential for conservation of threatened native species. Complete eradication of the predator, although desirable, may be elusive in budget‐limited situations, whereas predator suppression is more feasible and may still achieve conservation goals. We used a stochastic predator–prey model based on a Lotka‐Volterra system to investigate the cost‐effectiveness of predator control to achieve prey conservation. We compared five control strategies: immediate eradication, removal of a constant number of predators (fixed‐number control), removal of a constant proportion of predators (fixed‐rate control), removal of predators that exceed a predetermined threshold (upper‐trigger harvest), and removal of predators whenever their population falls below a lower predetermined threshold (lower‐trigger harvest). We looked at the performance of these strategies when managers could always remove the full number of predators targeted by each strategy, subject to budget availability. Under this assumption immediate eradication reduced the threat to the prey population the most. We then examined the effect of reduced management success in meeting removal targets, assuming removal is more difficult at low predator densities. In this case there was a pronounced reduction in performance of the immediate eradication, fixed‐number, and lower‐trigger strategies. Although immediate eradication still yielded the highest expected minimum prey population size, upper‐trigger harvest yielded the lowest probability of prey extinction and the greatest return on investment (as measured by improvement in expected minimum population size per amount spent). Upper‐trigger harvest was relatively successful because it operated when predator density was highest, which is when predator removal targets can be more easily met and the effect of predators on the prey is most damaging. This suggests that controlling predators only when they are most abundant is the “best” strategy when financial resources are limited and eradication is unlikely.     

Effects of Detectability on Estimates of Geographic Range Size in Bignonieae

Abstract: Extinction risk has not been evaluated for 96% of all described plant species. Given that the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation proposes preliminary conservation assessments of all described plant species by 2010, herbarium specimens (i.e., primary occurrence data) are increasingly being used to infer threat components from estimates of geographic range size. Nevertheless, estimates of range size based on herbarium data may be inaccurate due to collection bias associated with interspecific variation in detectability. We used data on 377 species of Bignonieae to test the hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between detectability and estimates of geographic range size derived from herbarium specimens. This relationship is expected if the proportion of the true geographic range size of a species that is documented by herbarium specimens is given by the product of the true geographic range size and the detectability of the species, assuming no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability. We developed 4 measures of detectability that can be estimated from herbarium data and examined the relationship between detectability and 2 types of estimates of geographic range size: area of occupancy and extent of occurrence. Our results from regressing estimates of extent of occurrence and area of occupancy on detectability across genera provided no support for this hypothesis. The same was true for regressions of estimated extent of occurrence on detectability across species within genera. Nevertheless, regressions of estimated area of occupancy on detectability across species within genera provided partial support for our hypothesis. We considered 3 possible explanations for this mixed outcome: violation of the assumption of no relationship between true geographic range size and detectability; the relationships between estimated geographic range size and detectability may be an artifact of a negative relationship between estimated area of occupancy and the sampling variance of detectability; detectability may have had 2 opposite effects on estimated species range sizes: one determines the proportion of the true range of a species documented by herbarium specimens and the other determines the distribution of true range size for the species actually observed with herbarium data. Our findings should help improve understanding of the potential biases incurred with the use of herbarium data.     

北京市25种公路绿化植物及配置模式的绿量

计量研究公路绿地的生态服务功能有助于科学评估公路绿化的无形价值。以北京市顺义区顺平路(S305)的绿化植物群落为研究对象,运用WinScanopy For Canopy Analysis冠层分析仪采集数据,研究了公路绿化常见植物及配置模式的绿量率,并建立了25种公路绿化常见植物的绿量率模型,以期为公路绿化树种选择和群落配置提供基础分析与参考。结果表明:阔叶乔木的绿量率在3.02~4.80之间,针叶乔木的绿量率集中在4~6之间,灌木植物的绿量率较小,种植紧凑的绿篱绿量率达到3.94;不同配置模式的群落绿量率大小顺序依次为:针阔混交林>阔叶林>针叶林>灌木群落。其研究结果为公路绿化建设和绿地生态效益的计量提供了科学依据。     

威海市区黑松林群落的物种多样性特征

用3个丰富度指数、2个多样性指数和3个均匀度指数对威海市区11个黑松林群落多样性进行研究,并用相关分析研究了这些指数间的关系,结果表明:(1)黑松混交林群落的丰富度和多样性均高于黑松纯林群落,但均匀度却无此规律;(2)生境最优的黑松+刺槐+麻栎林(位于仙姑顶的样地11)在11个样地中的物种多样性表现最好,丰富度、多样性和均匀度都最大.而生境最差的位于火炬大厦的黑松纯林(样地2)群落的丰富度和多样性指数都最小;(3)除样地2外,其余样地群落的草本层丰富度和多样性都最大,灌木层次之,乔木层最小,均匀度无此规律;(4)3个丰富度指数之间、2个多样性指数之间以及两个Pielou均匀度指数之间存在极显著的相关性,但Alatalo均匀度指数和其它7个指数之间相关性都不显著,同时对8个物种多样性指数进行比较后发现丰富度指数中Patrick指数(S)最优,而多样性指数中Shannon-Wiener(H)最优,均匀度指数中以H为基础计算出的Pielou(JH)指数最优.     

简化活性污泥数学模型在城市污水厂中的应用

以活性污泥 1号模型 (ASM1 )为开发平台 ,建立了简化的活性污泥数学模型 (ASM CN)。该模型主要描述了碳氧化和硝化过程 ,其中模型组分、反应过程和参数的数量都少于ASM1 ,从而提高了该模型在城市污水厂中的实用性。通过测定模型组分、化学计量系数和动力学参数 ,为模型的应用提供了重要的前提和基础。最后利用ASM CN模型对实际城市污水厂的运行进行了动态模拟 ,模拟结果良好 ,验证了ASM CN模型的实用性和有效性 ,并且也验证了模拟程序的准确性。     

乙酸对硅酸聚合胶凝及形态分布的影响

要研究了硅酸在不同pH条件下,乙酸存在时的形态分布及转化特征．结果表明：当硅酸溶液中有乙酸存在时,硅酸的聚合胶凝时间将延长．从而证实了乙酸的存在,能有效地减缓硅酸溶液中聚硅酸的生长速度．     

宁波市城市污水处理厂污泥处置方案探讨

随着城市污水处理率提高导致的污水污泥产量的增长趋势也使得污水污泥的处理问题更为突出。在总结国内外城市污泥处置技术发展趋势的基础上,结合宁波市的实际情况,根据无害化、减量化和资源化的原则,提出城市污泥近远期处置方案,并对处置方案作出可行性分析。     

植物提取液处理恶臭气体的研究进展

介绍了近二十年来国内外关于植物提取液治理恶臭气体的研究成果,内容包括植物提取液的应用研究、除臭机理研究及植物提取液提取方法的研究;指出对恶臭气体中的胺类和醚类除臭机理、对植物提取液提取工艺优化的研究是今后研究的重点。