Postfire succession in a forest of the cryolithozone: The example of central Yakutia

The results of studies on postfire succession in larch forests of the permafrost zone are discussed. The main directions of successional processes in burned-out areas of different ages are described. It has been shown that secondary pyrogenic successions in larch forests follow the scheme of rapid regeneration without tree species replacement and the model of succession tolerance. Groups of plant species with different life strategies and indicator species characterizing different stages of the overgrowing of burned-out areas have been identified.     

基于粗糙集-神经网络的矿山地质环境影响评价模型及应用

采用衡山白果地区石膏矿山的11个评价指标,综合运用粗糙集和神经网络理论,构建了基于粗糙集-神经网络(RS-ANN)的矿山地质环境影响评价模型,对RSES软件约简的数据和无约简的数据采用EasyNN-plus软件进行预测评价。神经网络模型的输入属性为8个,而粗糙集-神经网络模型的输入属性为6个,训练样本均为13个,预测样本均为4个,前者的平均预测精度为1.85%～24.86%,后者为1.23%～15.28%。研究发现,粗糙集在保留关键信息的前提下可有效地对数据表进行约简,约简后的神经网络预测结果与实际情况吻合,并比无约简时总体精度有较大幅度提高。     

高危作业有害因素预防控制水平预警模型

针对职业卫生领域出现的急慢性职业病及突发性化学中毒等事件,本文采用预防控制水平指标体系,用因子分析法构建了单项有害因素的预警模型。在此基础上,利用加权平均法给出了多项有害因素的综合预警模型,其中,应用层次分析法确定各个有害因素的权重。高危作业有害因素预警模型的提出为高危作业有害因素防治提供了量化的科学依据。     

中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

应用底栖动物为指示生物的松花江干流水生态预警研究

指示生物监测及水生态预警是利用水环境中指示物种的数量、群落结构指标和个体生理指标等描述水生态系统的健康状态,其相比于常规理化监测和预警更直接地反映水体的生态质量。本研究在松花江干流2012—2015年大型底栖无脊椎动物监测结果的基础上,结合各监测点生态质量管理目标,通过分析物种的种类、出现的频次、物种污染敏感性(耐污值),尝试提出了松花江干流监控断面以底栖动物为指示生物的水生态预警模式,研究思路和结果对流域水环境风险管理指标的拓展有积极作用。     

Antibiotic resistant bacteria/genes dissemination in lacustrine sediments highly increased following cultural eutrophication of Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

This study investigates faecal indicator bacteria (FIB), multiple antibiotic resistant (MAR), and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), of sediment profiles from different parts of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) over the last decades. MARs consist to expose culturable Escherichia coli (EC) and Enterococcus (ENT) to mixed five antibiotics including Ampicillin, Tetracycline, Amoxicillin, Chloramphenicol and Erythromycin. Culture-independent is performed to assess the distribution of ARGs responsible for, β-lactams (blaTEM; Amoxicillin/Ampicillin), Streptomycin/Spectinomycin (aadA), Tetracycline (tet) Chloramphenicol (cmlA) and Vancomycin (van). Bacterial cultures reveal that in the sediments deposited following eutrophication of Lake Geneva in the 1970s, the percentage of MARs to five antibiotics varied from 0.12% to 4.6% and 0.016% to 11.6% of total culturable EC and ENT, respectively. In these organic-rich bacteria-contaminated sediments, the blaTEM resistant of FIB varied from 22% to 48% and 16% to 37% for EC and ENT respectively, whereas the positive PCR assays responsible for tested ARGs were observed for EC, ENT, and total DNA from all samples. The aadA resistance gene was amplified for all the sediment samples, including those not influenced by WWTP effluent water. Our results demonstrate that bacteria MARs and ARGs highly increased in the sediments contaminated with WWTP effluent following the cultural eutrophication of Lake Geneva. Hence, the human-induced changing limnological conditions highly enhanced the sediment microbial activity, and therein the spreading of antibiotic resistant bacteria and genes in this aquatic environment used to supply drinking water in a highly populated area. Furthermore, the presence of the antibiotic resistance gene aadA in all the studied samples points out a regional dissemination of this emerging contaminant in freshwater sediments since at least the late nineteenth century.     

Development and field validation of an indicator to assess the relative mobility and risk of pesticides in the Lourens River catchment,South Africa

A GIS based pesticide risk indicator that integrates exposure variables (i.e. pesticide application, geographic, physicochemical and crop data) and toxicity endpoints (using species sensitivity distributions) was developed to estimate the Predicted Relative Exposure (PREX) and Predicted Relative Risk (PRRI) of applied pesticides to aquatic ecosystem health in the Lourens River catchment, Western Cape, South Africa. Samples were collected weekly at five sites from the beginning of the spraying season (October) till the beginning of the rainy season (April) and were semi quantitatively analysed for relevant pesticides applied according to the local farmers spraying programme. Monitoring data indicate that physicochemical data obtained from international databases are reliable indicators of pesticide behaviour in the Western Cape of South Africa. Sensitivity analysis identified K_OC as the most important parameter influencing predictions of pesticide loading derived from runoff. A comparison to monitoring data showed that the PREX successfully identified hotspot sites, gave a reasonable estimation of the relative contamination potential of different pesticides at a site and identified important routes of exposure (i.e. runoff or spray drift) of different pesticides at different sites. All pesticides detected during a monitored runoff event, were indicated as being more associated with runoff than spray drift by the PREX. The PRRI identified azinphos-methyl and chlorpyrifos as high risk pesticides towards the aquatic ecosystem. These results contribute to providing increased confidence in the use of risk indicator applications and, in particular, could lead to improved utilisation of limited resources for monitoring and management in resource constrained countries.     

Use of Scale Invariance in Evaluating Judgement Indicators

Indicators are used to draw conclusions about ecological endpoints when these endpoints cannot be measured directly. In many cases, inferences about an endpoint are only possible because assumptions have been made about the relationship between indicator and endpoint; we refer to such indicators as judgement indicators. The validity of inferences made using a judgement indicator can be gauged by examining the known or assumed form of the general relationship between indicator and endpoint. The rules for this kind of inference are a consequence of scale invariance, which originates from measurement theory. For simple indicators comprised of a single indicator measurement, the inferences allowed – equivalence, rank, equality of intervals, and equality of ratios – depend on whether the data are nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio scaled. For composite indicators containing two or more simple indicators, inferences are also affected by the mathematical form of combination; e.g., whether the terms are summed or multiplied. Standardizing simple or composite indicators can allow inferences about the relative importance of observations, based on the natural range of occurrence. Scale invariance is a particularly important consideration in landscape assessments, since these often make use of judgement indicators.     

不同生境苔类和角苔类植物对生态环境的指示作用

利用植物对生态环境进行监测能综合地判断生态环境变化情况。通过对黔北丹霞地貌区、香纸沟喀斯特地貌区及烂泥沟卡林型金矿区苔类、角苔类植物的比较研究,统计分析种群的分布情况。结果表明,角苔类植物主要生长于生态环境保护较好的区域,扁萼苔科、角苔科为生态环境保护较好区域监测指示科植物,蛇苔属为生态环境保护较好区域监测指示属植物,小蛇苔、蛇苔为生态环境保护较好区域监测指示种植物。     

全二维气相色谱-飞行时间质谱法分离复杂体系中7种指示剂 多氯联苯

采用全二维气相色谱-飞行时间质谱法(GC×GC TOF-MS)分析了混标样品Aroclor 1260、Aroclor 1254、Aroclor 1242中的多氯联苯(PCBs)单体,考察了在复杂体系下对7种PCBs指示剂的分离能力。结果表明,与优化柱系统的分离效果相比,136种单体的混标样品中共分离出121种单体,7种指示剂经一维和二维的保留时间及质谱定性,在121种单体的2D斑点图中清晰可辨。全二维对于复杂体系的PCBs和指示剂的分离表明其强大的分离能力和对于检测复杂体系中指示剂的分辨能力,对该类物质的定性和定量检测具有重要意义。