气候变化对洪湖湿地的影响

气候变化影响着湿地生态系统。在全球气候变化的背景下,洪湖湿地区域气候也发生了明显变化。通过对洪湖周边4个站点1961~2004年的气象数据分析,从气象学和生态学的角度探讨了气候变化对洪湖湿地的影响。结果表明20世纪60年代以来,洪湖湿地区域气温有显著升高趋势,气温增加倾向率为0264℃/10 a;年降水量有微弱升高趋势,增加倾向率为49964 mm/10 a;降水量夏季和冬季有升高趋势,但是春季和秋季有减弱趋势。气候要素的综合变化使洪湖湿地区域湿润系数具有降低趋势。气候变化造成洪湖湿地面积萎缩、水位降低,同时造成了生物多样性降低和生物入侵,降水格局的变化改变了湿地水文状况,加剧了湿地的生态不稳定性。研究结果为湿地恢复重建和本区湿地生态安全提供了科学依据.     

上海霾气候数据序列重建及其时空特征

利用上海11个气象站点1960～2008年日均相对湿度、能见度以及天气现象资料,重建了上海近50a霾气候数据序列,并从时间和空间两个方面分析了上海霾日数的气候特征和变化规律。结果表明,上海霾气候数据序列重建值与报表记录值之间变化形态存在着较好的一致性,重建值较记录值偏高。1960～2008年,上海霾日数以9.7d/10a的线性趋势显著增加,2002年以后霾日数总体上呈减少趋势。上海多年平均霾日数以冬季最多而夏季最少。近50a,上海霾日数呈现出西南部最多-市区较多-东北和东南部最少的空间分布,霾日数的空间变化趋势则表现为西南部增加较多而东部增加较少。1981～2008年,上海霾日数在西部和南部都增加,东部则减少。     

吐曼河近5a水质变化浅析

通过单因子评价法对吐曼河水质现状及近期变化趋势进行了分析,揭示了近几年来吐曼河水质年内及年际变化的特点,以期对吐曼河水污染治理提供参考。     

Effective communication about complex environmental issues: Perceived quality of information about carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) depends on stakeholder collaboration

This experimental research addresses the effectiveness of communication about complex environmental issues, depending on whether the same information is provided by multiple collaborating or by individual organizations (i.e., stakeholders). The information provided pertains to carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology, as an example of a complex environmental issue. In Studies 1 (N = 75) and 2 (N = 66) we found that participants perceived factual information from collaborating stakeholders to be of higher quality than when the same information was provided by individual stakeholders. As predicted, the expectation of diverse perspectives being represented in the collaborative information mediated this effect. In addition, in Study 3 (N = 79) the perceived dissimilarity of collaborating stakeholders was shown to be an important precondition for the collaboration effect observed in Studies 1 and 2. Finally, these studies indicate that occasional collaboration between different stakeholders does not necessarily harm the perceived credibility of each individual stakeholder.     

Spring leaf flush in aspen (Populus tremuloides) clones is altered by long-term growth at elevated carbon dioxide and elevated ozone concentration

Early spring leaf out is important to the success of deciduous trees competing for light and space in dense forest plantation canopies. In this study, we investigated spring leaf flush and how long-term growth at elevated carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) and elevated ozone concentration ([O₃]) altered leaf area index development in a closed Populus tremuloides (aspen) canopy. This work was done at the Aspen FACE experiment where aspen clones have been grown since 1997 in conditions simulating the [CO₂] and [O₃] predicted for ∼2050. The responses of two clones were compared during the first month of spring leaf out when CO₂ fumigation had begun, but O₃ fumigation had not. Trees in elevated [CO₂] plots showed a stimulation of leaf area index (36%), while trees in elevated [O₃] plots had lower leaf area index (−20%). While individual leaf area was not significantly affected by elevated [CO₂], the photosynthetic operating efficiency of aspen leaves was significantly improved (51%). There were no significant differences in the way that the two aspen clones responded to elevated [CO₂]; however, the two clones responded differently to long-term growth at elevated [O₃]. The O₃-sensitive clone, 42E, had reduced individual leaf area when grown at elevated [O₃] (−32%), while the tolerant clone, 216, had larger mature leaf area at elevated [O₃] (46%). These results indicate a clear difference between the two clones in their long-term response to elevated [O₃], which could affect competition between the clones, and result in altered genotypic composition in future atmospheric conditions.     

Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Biogeochemical Cycles, Benthic Fauna, and Management

Hypoxia has occurred intermittently over the Holocene in the Baltic Sea, but the recent expansion from less than 10 000 km² before 1950 to >60 000 km² since 2000 is mainly caused by enhanced nutrient inputs from land and atmosphere. With worsening hypoxia, the role of sediments changes from nitrogen removal to nitrogen release as ammonium. At present, denitrification in the water column and sediments is equally important. Phosphorus is currently buried in sediments mainly in organic form, with an additional contribution of reduced Fe-phosphate minerals in the deep anoxic basins. Upon the transition to oxic conditions, a significant proportion of the organic phosphorus will be remineralized, with the phosphorus then being bound to iron oxides. This iron-oxide bound phosphorus is readily released to the water column upon the onset of hypoxia again. Important ecosystems services carried out by the benthic fauna, including biogeochemical feedback-loops and biomass production, are also lost with hypoxia. The results provide quantitative knowledge of nutrient release and recycling processes under various environmental conditions in support of decision support tools underlying the Baltic Sea Action Plan.     

CLUE-S模型对村镇土地利用变化的模拟与精度评价

利用航片、IKONOS和Quickbird影像得到研究区3期（1991、2001和2009年）土地利用历史数据,运用CLUE S模型,基于1991、2001年的土地利用数据对2009年土地利用格局进行模拟预测,并将模拟结果与2009年真实土地利用数据进行比较。类型水平上,选择ROC曲线统计和偏离度指数分别对各地类的Logistic回归拟合精度和CLUE S模型模拟精度进行评价;景观水平上,采用景观指数和Kappa指数系列方法,从综合预测能力、景观格局、数量和空间位置等方面对CLUE S模型的模拟精度进行全面评估。结果表明:①CLUE S模型对各土地利用类型的模拟精度均较高,各地类的Logistic回归的拟合精度随着模拟分辨率的提高而逐渐增加;②随着模拟时间的缩短,CLUE S模型对整体景观格局的模拟精度提高;③该模型对土地利用数量的模拟精度明显优于其对空间位置的模拟精度。总体而言,CLUE S模型在村镇尺度的模拟效果良好,预测精度较高,但在空间位置和景观格局精度方面还有待提高     

气候变化经济学研究综述

对近10 a来国内外有关气候变化经济学研究成果作了综述。气候变化经济学是一门研究人类干预气候变化过程中涉及经济过程的学科。当前的研究热点包括气候变化的经济影响、适应措施的成本和收益、国际合作机制和涉及代际公平的折现率选取。 在研究方法上,对得到广泛运用的成本收益分析法和碳税机制作了详细的评述。在应用层面上,欧美发达国家在城市气候变化经济评估系统建立和碳税征收方面都有成功的应用,但我国在这方面的实践还处于起步阶段。对于我国气候变化经济学领域的研究来说,比较适合在发达省份以市域或省域为单位开展成本收益评估,发展中省份则应将更多关注放在评估气候变化可能造成的经济损害及相应的防范措施。此外,我国也应关注在欧盟地区实施较为成功的碳税政策,虽然目前在中国开征碳税的可能性较低,但是对碳税在中国实施的可行性、税率选取及立法保障机制等方面的探讨和研究仍是必要的     

三江源区气候及水文变化特征研究

以1961~2007年三江源区的气象及径流资料为基础,采用M K法和R/S分析法分析三江源区气候及水文要素变化趋势及进行未来变化趋势预测,并采用主成分分析法判定径流过程的主要驱动要素。研究表明:三江源区气温普遍显著升高,水面蒸发和地温随着气温的升高也不断增加,降水的增加并不显著,而年径流尤其是夏秋季节径流存在明显减小的趋势。R/S分析结果表明气候和水文要素未来总体的变化趋势与过去一致。三江源区径流过程是由气温起主导作用,径流对气温变化较降水变化更为敏感。本研究将为三江源区水资源开发利用及优化配置提供科学借鉴,同时为三江源区的生态建设和保护提供参考依据     

极端气候事件的灾后适应能力研究——以水稻为例

本研究以水稻种植业为例,基于1985-2008年中国水稻主产区的面板数据,实证分析了中国极端气候事件灾后适应能力的机制及绩效。结论表明:西南、华中、华东地区在极端气候事件灾后,并没有将农业产业结构向养殖业调整,相反,种植业在政府扶持与创新激励下反而恢复生产甚至进一步扩张。特别对于西南等经济相对欠发达地区而言,较强的灾后适应能力,往往是农业生产机会成本较低的作用结果,同样由于此原因,华东地区在水灾之后却出现了劳动力转移现象。现阶段,灾后适应能力较多的表现为微观层面的农户响应行为,此种民间调控机制必然有其局限性,政府部门应加大投入力度,通过水利工程建设、气象灾害预警体系构建、标准化农田建设、良种补贴等方式引领粮食主产区应对气象灾害。