生产性公共支出、空间溢出效应与区域经济差距——基于多地区动态一般均衡模型的分析

改革开放以来,中国东、中、西部地区经济差距不断拉大,政府为协调区域经济发展水平,逐渐将生产性公共支出向较不发达的中部和西部地区倾斜。为了全面地评估这种财政政策的效果,在传统一般均衡分析的基础上将生产性公共支出及其空间溢出纳入宏观经济分析框架,构建了一个多地区动态一般均衡模型,并用该模型模拟了现实经济中区域生产性公共支出政策及其调整对区域经济和宏观经济的冲击,得到的结论是:(1)当前生产性公共支出空间分布基础上,新增生产性公共支出分散于各个地区,会继续扩大区域经济差距;(2)新增生产性公共支出集中于较不发达的地区时,由于较低的基础设施边际生产力和较弱的空间溢出效应,全国人均产出不能达到最大水平,但可缩小区域经济差距;(3)新增生产性公共支出集中于较发达的地区时,由于较高的基础设施边际生产力和较强的空间溢出效应,全国人均产出可达到最大水平,但同时拉大区域经济差距。由此得到的政策启示是:在现有生产性公共支出的区域分布基础上,以缩小区域经济差距为目标的次优的财政政策将新增的生产性公共支出向西部和中部等较不发达地区倾斜,靠直接刺激效应促进当地产出增长;以效率优先为准则的财政政策选取较发达地区为生产性公共支出目的地,因为较发达地区通常具有较高的基础设施边际生产力和较强的空间溢出效应。     

中国地区间跨界污染治理的两阶段多边补偿机制研究

近年来,以雾霾、河流污染等为代表的跨界污染问题严重影响了我国经济社会的可持续协调发展。本文将跨界污染治理视为典型的地区间外溢性公共品,从公共经济学的视角出发,分析了我国地区间跨界污染治理的种种困境,并通过构建两阶段多边博弈模型,探讨了补偿机制的可行性。本文首先构建了一个跨地区的污染模型,通过中央政府干预或不干预的博弈分析发现,当污染存在地区内部及跨地区的外溢性时,如果中央政府不介入而由企业自行设定产出水平,那么企业的污染排放水平将超过社会有效率的水平。在此基础上,本文进一步构建了一个两阶段多边补偿机制博弈模型,即由中央政府设计一个地区内部企业与居民之间以及跨地区之间的补偿机制,来解决以上的无效性问题。结果显示,当企业支付的补偿金额取决于居民设定的补偿系数,而居民得到的补偿金额又取决于企业设定的补偿系数时,相互影响的博弈关系使得企业和居民从自身的利益出发,将补偿系数设定在企业污染对于居民边际损害的水平,从而企业生产水平会达到有效状态,两阶段多边补偿机制实现了有效的污染排放。本文在庇古税思想的基础上,通过放松庇古税对外部性相关信息的强假设,构建了一个两阶段多边补偿机制,即由企业缴纳庇古税后,中央将征收的庇古税补偿给居民,这样不仅内部化了企业污染给居民造成的负外部性,还进一步平衡了地区间的跨界污染治理问题。     

Matching mechanism in global public goods games: a case of climate protection

In the setting of dealing with climate change, this article designs a matching mechanism for global public goods provision with the aggregative game approach. Given endowment and the technology of each country, we propose the conditions under which the matching mechanism is able to guarantee full participation and Pareto efficient provision, respectively, in the cases with certain and uncertain preference information. These conditions cannot only be adopted in international negotiation and cooperation, but also refines the theory of matching game. In comparative static analyses, we discover that: First, changes of initial stock of climate goods produce a wealth effect and the crowd-out effect is less than 1. Second, climate tax policies affect the supply and welfare of each country only when they produce wealth effects, and if tax revenue is transferred into climate goods with more advanced technology, they will produce positive wealth effects. Third, modifying matching plans dynamically and appropriately can urge countries to improve technology, and especially given a Pareto optimal mechanism, adjusting the matching plan to keep marginal rates of transformation unchanged as technology changes is still able to ensure full participation and efficient supply of climate goods.     

认知资源对公众城市气象灾害防御支付意愿的影响研究——基于南京市暴雨灾害防御的实证

城市气象灾害防御措施的改进是防灾减灾的有效手段,但如何在辨识公众支付意愿的基础上,构建多方成本分担的灾害防御制度是解决问题的关键。从成本分担的视角出发,以南京暴雨灾害防御为例,分析公众对增强型城市气象灾害防御的支付意愿及认知资源在其中的重要作用。通过构建由Probit模型和有序Probit模型组成的递归混合模型,探讨认知资源和经济资源在公众支付决策中的重要性。研究表明:认知资源的作用十分明显,且随着公众对暴雨灾害风险感知、防御措施了解程度、防御制度认可程度的提高,公众支付意愿越强。而暴雨灾害风险感知又受到灾害趋势认知和经历的共同影响,这两个变量分别影响风险感知的广度和深度,但受教育程度对风险感知深度的影响并不显著。核心建议是从满足公众对城市暴雨灾害风险、防御措施、灾害趋势等知识的需求,政府应该加强暴雨灾害科普宣传的主动性、提升主管和协同部门的公信力;规范科普知识内容、拓宽科普渠道。     

Does Engagement in Advocacy Hurt the Credibility of Scientists? Results from a Randomized National Survey Experiment

It is often assumed that issue advocacy will compromise the credibility of scientists. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment to test public reactions to six different advocacy statements made by a scientist—ranging from a purely informational statement to an endorsement of specific policies. We found that perceived credibility of the communicating scientist was uniformly high in five of the six message conditions, suffering only when he advocated for a specific policy—building more nuclear power plants (although credibility did not suffer when advocating for a different specific policy—carbon dioxide limits at power plants). We also found no significant differences in trust in the broader climate science community between the six message conditions. Our results suggest that climate scientists who wish to engage in certain forms of advocacy have considerable latitude to do so without risking harm to their credibility, or the credibility of the scientific community.     

Insurance sector management of climate change adaptation in three Nordic countries: the influence of policy and market factors

The insurance industry is important for facilitating climate change adaptation. Insurance companies’ involvement is, however, influenced by national adaptation policy. The literature suggests that especially policy factors – government interventions, political priorities and public–private cooperation – and market factors – cost offset, cost mitigation, planning flexibility and business opportunities – shape private actor approaches. To increase the understanding of insurance company involvement in adaptation, this study examines how insurance companies’ approaches are influenced by policy and market factors in three countries: Denmark, Norway and Sweden. The study found that the policy factors tested significantly shaped the approaches of the companies assessed, while market factors currently appear less influential. This is likely due to the absence of climate risk and adaptation in political debates and among insurance policyholders. The study discusses the potential role of the insurance industry in adaptation governance and suggests how barriers facing insurance companies could be overcome.     

Local governments in the driving seat? A comparative analysis of public and private responsibilities for adaptation to climate change in European and North-American cities

The division of responsibilities between public and private actors has become a key governance issue for adaptation to climate change in urban areas. This paper offers a systematic, comparative analysis of three empirical studies which analysed how and why responsibilities were divided between public and private actors for the governance of local urban climate adaptation. For 20 governance arrangements in European and North-American cities, the divisions of responsibilities and the underlying rationales of actors for those divisions were analysed and compared. Data were gathered through content analysis of over 100 policy documents, 97 in-depth interviews and 2 multi-stakeholder workshops. The comparative analysis reveals that local public authorities are the key actors, as they bear the majority of responsibilities for climate proofing their cities. In this stage of policy emergence, local authorities are clearly in the driving seat. It is envisaged that local public authorities need to more actively engage the different private actors such as citizens, civil society and businesses through governance networks along with the maturation of the policy field and the expected acceleration of climate impacts in the coming decades.     

Patronage and access to a legacy city farmers’ market: a case study of the relocation of the Flint,Michigan, market

This study examines the effects of relocating the Flint Farmers’ Market, a large and successful market in the medium-sized legacy city of Flint, Michigan. Over the course of a year, market patrons and vendors were surveyed to explore questions about the scale of the market, patron demographics, reasons for visiting the market, seasonal variations in outcomes, and healthy food access. The results indicate that the relocated, downtown market is successful in large part because it satisfies multiple needs – it provides access to fresh, local produce; it provides lunch options for downtown workers and students; and it serves as a community gathering space. The study further demonstrates that farmers’ markets in legacy cities can serve a large region, attract diverse customers, and remain sustainable year-round, even in northern climates. These findings should be of interest to planners, policy-makers, and market managers who are considering opening or relocating a farmers’ market as a means of supporting community health, well-being, and economic development.     

战略环境影响评价中公众参与方法研究与案例分析

公众参与有效性是衡量战略环境影响评价质量的一个重要指标,它对于提高环境管理水平具有重要的意义。本文在对比项目环境影响评价的基础上,系统阐述了战略环境影响评价公众参与的内容、对象、方式、时机、实施主体、数据处理及信息反馈,初步建立了战略环境影响评价公众参与的方法与体系,并结合典型案例进行了战略环境影响评价公众参与的过程分析。     

南四湖供用水管理机制的完善

南四湖的供用水管理尚存在诸多不完善之处,诸如供用水管理权限不清、用水纠纷、法治建设落后于实际需要、执法难等问题一直困扰着当地经济和社会的发展。采取完善法治、优化现有管理体制、改善行政执法条件等措施,将有利于完善南四湖供用水管理机制,有利于南四湖水资源的管理与利用,促进当地经济和社会的可持续发展。