NONLINEAR MODELING AND PREDICTION OF A RIVER FLOW SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: Model estimation and prediction of a river flow system are investigated using nonlinear system identification techniques. We demonstrate how the dynamics of the system, rainfall, and river flow can be modeled using NARMAX (Nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenuous input) models. The parameters of the model are estimated using an orthogonal least squares algorithm with intelligent structure detection. The identification of the nonlinear model is described to represent the relationship between local rainfall and river flow at Enoree station (inputs) and river flow at Whitmire (output) for a river flow system in South Carolina.     

悬浮载体生物膜反应器修复受污染河水试验研究

利用自行开发的悬浮载体生物膜反应器 (SCBR)进行了修复受污染河水的试验 ,考察了水力停留时间对CODCr和氨氮去除效果的影响 .试验结果表明 ,在水温为 15～ 2 0℃ ,进水CODCr为 70～ 10 0mg/L ,进水氨氮为 8～ 2 0mg/L的条件下 ,反应器水力停留时间采用 1 0h时 ,SCBR反应器可以有效去除河水中的CODCr和氨氮 ,其中对CODCr的平均去除率可以达到 5 6 9% ,对氨氮的平均去除率可以达到 76 0 % .     

Accounting for time in Mitigating Global Warming through land-use change and forestry

Many proposed activities formitigating global warming in the land-use change and forestry(LUCF) sector differ from measures to avoid fossilfuel emissions because carbon (C) may be held out ofthe atmosphere only temporarily. In addition, thetiming of the effects is usually different. Many LUCFactivities alter C fluxes to and from the atmosphereseveral decades into the future, whereas fossil fuelemissions avoidance has immediate effects. Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are animportant part of emissions from deforestation inlow-latitude regions, also pose complications forcomparisons between fossil fuel and LUCF, since themechanism generally used to compare these gases(global warming potentials) assumes simultaneousemissions. A common numeraire is needed to expressglobal warming mitigation benefits of different kindsof projects, such as fossil fuel emissions reduction,C sequestration in forest plantations, avoideddeforestation by creating protected areas and throughpolicy changes to slow rates of land-use changes suchas clearing. Megagram (Mg)-year (also known as`ton-year') accounting provides a mechanism forexpressing the benefits of activities such as these ona consistent basis. One can calculate the atmosphericload of each GHG that will be present in each year,expressed as C in the form of CO₂ and itsinstantaneous impact equivalent contributed by othergases. The atmospheric load of CO₂-equivalent Cpresent over a time horizon is a possible indicator ofthe climatic impact of the emission that placed thisload in the atmosphere. Conversely, this index alsoprovides a measure of the benefit of notproducing the emission. One accounting methodcompares sequestered CO₂ in trees with theCO₂ that would be in the atmosphere had thesequestration project not been undertaken, whileanother method (used in this paper) compares theatmospheric load of C (or equivalent in non-CO₂GHGs) in both project and no-project scenarios.Time preference, expressed by means of a discount rateon C, can be applied to Mg-year equivalencecalculations to allow societal decisions regarding thevalue of time to be integrated into the system forcalculating global warming impacts and benefits. Giving a high value to time, either by raising thediscount rate or by shortening the time horizon,increases the value attributed to temporarysequestration (such as many forest plantationprojects). A high value for time also favorsmitigation measures that have rapid effects (such asslowing deforestation rates) as compared to measuresthat only affect emissions years in the future (suchas creating protected areas in countries with largeareas of remaining forest). Decisions on temporalissues will guide mitigation efforts towards optionsthat may or may not be desirable on the basis ofsocial and environmental effects in spheres other thanglobal warming. How sustainable development criteriaare incorporated into the approval and creditingsystems for activities under the Kyoto Protocol willdetermine the overall environmental and social impactsof pending decisions on temporal issues.     

各种影响因子对电解法预处理医药废水的影响研究

探讨了电解法预处理医药废水时停留时间、电解电压、废水初始浓度、温度和废水pH值等影响因子对去除色度、COD和提高废水可生化性等处理效果的影响，并考察了其应用于工业实际废水处理的可行性。实验结果表明：电解法更适合高浓度医药废水的处理，色度的去除率可达到90％以上；电解时间宜控制在40-60min；电解电压越高，废水COD和色度去除效果越好；在实验温度范围内，温度对色度和COD去除率的影响不大；废水pH值为7．5时电解效果最佳，工程运用宜控制在6—9之间。     

用呼吸速率控制SBR反应时问的基础研究

以人工配水为对象，研究了SBR工艺反应过程中呼吸速率的变化规律，探讨了用呼吸速率控制SBR反应时间长度的可行性，结果证明，呼吸速率在SBR反应过程中有明显特征变化可以作为SBR反应结束的标志。把呼吸速率与其他物理变量结合起来可以更加有效地控制SBR，提高其运行效率。     

垂直流芦苇人工湿地对化粪池出水净化效果的研究

通过在同种基质上种植相同数目的芦苇，研究了垂直流人工湿地对化粪池出水的净化效果，以及不同水力停留时间对污水净化效果的影响。结果表明，同种填料、不同水力停留时间，对污水中TP、NH4^＋-N．CODcr的净化效果不同。由于芦苇根系和微生物的吸收与分解作用，以及基质的吸附作用，种植芦苇的人工湿地出水水质要比未种芦苇的好。     

污水生物处理中抗生素的去除机制及影响因素

环境中的抗生素污染日益严重,其诱导产生的抗生素抗性成为人类健康的重大威胁.通过对世界多地污水处理厂进、出水中抗生素浓度水平的文献调研汇总,发现当前的污水处理工艺不能实现抗生素的有效去除.吸附和生物降解是污水中抗生素的主要去除途径,因此本文深入地分析了吸附的作用机制和不同种类抗生素吸附程度的差异;从生物降解性能、降解菌和降解产物等方面分析抗生素在污水生物处理过程中的生物降解作用;分析讨论了水力停留时间、污泥停留时间、温度和工艺选型(传统活性污泥法、膜生物反应器和生物脱氮工艺)等污水生物处理工艺的运行条件对吸附和生物降解途径的影响,进而解析对抗生素去除效果的影响.菌群组成、生长基质供应情况和微污染物共存情况等因素对污水生物处理中抗生素迁移转化的影响需要更深入地研究.     

不同停曝比对连续流亚硝化颗粒污泥运行的影响

在（25~28℃）下,接种成熟亚硝化颗粒污泥于连续流反应器,为避免通过蠕动泵的污泥回流所造成的颗粒污泥破碎,采用内置沉淀区进行内回流,调整停曝比为1：1、2：1和1：2,研究不同停曝比对连续流亚硝化颗粒污泥系统稳定性的影响.结果表明,控制停曝比为1：1和2：1,亚硝化性能良好,阶段末期亚硝酸盐积累率分别为85.2%和94.5%,控制停曝比为1：2,亚硝化性能逐渐恶化,阶段末期氨氧化率和亚硝酸盐积累率下降至64.1%和58.7%.批次试验表明,间歇曝气相对连续曝气可在一定程度上较好地抑制亚硝酸盐氧化菌（NOB）的相对活性,停曝时间越长,对NOB的活性抑制越好,但由于停曝时间过长也将导致氨氧化率降低,故在亚硝化工艺中,可采用1：1停曝比并协同其他控制条件的方式来实现连续流亚硝化工艺的长期稳定运行.污泥性能分析表明,在停曝比为1：1~1：2范围内,停曝时间越长,颗粒污泥结构越稳定,停曝时间越短,反应器内选择压较小,致使污泥沉降性能变差,部分亚硝化颗粒污泥解体,此外,胞外聚合物（EPS）化学分析及三维荧光光谱分析显示,停曝比为2：1条件下,蛋白（PN）含量较高且蛋白/多糖（PN/PS）值也较高.     

相变储能光伏太阳能热泵干燥系统的研究

建立了相变储能光伏太阳能热泵干燥系统实验平台,介绍了系统的运行方式以及太阳能光伏集热蒸发器与直流压缩机的匹配计算,最后对实验数据进行了分析。结果表明,太阳能辐照量为800 W/m~2、光伏集热蒸发器面积为12 m~2的条件下,系统制热功率为10 k W,太阳能光伏集热蒸发器发电量为6.2 k W·h,大于直流压缩机的耗电量,满足供电要求;实验所得系统COP为3.25。相变储能可以解决太阳辐照波动导致的系统运行不稳定问题,具有显著的节能性和环保性。     

煤矿喷雾降尘雾滴存活时间的数值模拟

为提高煤矿喷雾除尘效率,揭示雾滴蒸发和存活时间的影响因素,基于差分方法,使用MATLAB软件编制雾滴蒸发过程仿真试验程序,研究了雾滴初始半径、雾滴与风流的初始相对速度、雾滴初始温度,以及巷道风流初始温度、湿度、风压共6个关键影响因素与存活时间的关系;采用逐步回归方法构造了包含5因素的雾滴存活时间计算方程。结果表明:在目前煤矿采用的雾化降尘工艺范围内,除雾滴初始温度外的其他5个因素对雾滴存活时间的影响均较为显著;构建的雾滴存活时间综合计算方程能合理计算雾滴的存活时间。