Time discounting and the decision to protect areas that are near and threatened or remote and cheap to acquire

Should conservation organizations focus on protecting habitats that are at imminent risk of being converted but are expensive or more remote areas that are less immediately threatened but where a large amount of land can be set aside? Variants of this trade‐off commonly arise in spatial planning. I used models of land‐use change near a deforestation frontier to examine this trade‐off. The optimal choice of where to protect was determined by how decisions taken today accounted for ecological benefits and economic costs of conservation actions that would occur sometime in the future. I used an ecological and economic discount rate to weight these benefits and costs. A large economic discount rate favored protecting more remote areas, whereas a large, positive ecological discount rate favored protecting habitat near the current deforestation frontier. The decision over where to protect was also affected by the influence economic factors had on landowners' decisions, the rate of technological change, and ecological heterogeneity of the landscape. How benefits and costs through time are accounted for warrants careful consideration when specifying conservation objectives. It may provide a niche axis along which conservation organizations differentiate themselves when competing for donor funding or other support.     

污泥胞外聚合物的提取方法及其对污泥脱水性能的影响

采用7种不同方法提取污泥胞外聚合物(EPS),并研究污泥不同层EPS剥离前后对污泥脱水性能的影响.结果表明,甲醛+NaOH和2%EDTA提取法对污泥中紧密结合的胞外聚合物(tightly bound extracellular polymeric substances,TB-EPS)提取效率最高,总固体(SS)中的EPS提取量分别为128.9 mg.g-1和42.38 mg.g-1,但提取后细胞破裂严重,不能代表污泥EPS的真实含量,不宜采用.加热法较为温和,提取效率较高,总SS中EPS产量为21.97 mg.g-1.污泥剥离黏液层(Slime层)、松散结合的胞外聚合物(loosely bound extracellular polymeric substances,LB-EPS)和TB-EPS层后污泥的脱水性能大幅度改善,其中Slime层EPS含量越高污泥的脱水性能越差,当污泥EPS大量地释放到溶液中即Slime层时污泥的CST值大幅度升高,污泥的脱水性能变差.石湖墟和昂船舟污泥初始的毛细吸水时间(CST)为132.9 s和229.9 s,当剥离Slime层时这2种污泥的CST值分别为80.8 s和79.4 s,脱水性能得到明显改善.     

水力停留时间对活性污泥系统的硝化性能及其生物结构的影响

利用微生物呼吸醌指纹谱图结合传统分析方法研究了水力停留时间(HRT从30 h逐步缩短至5 h)对活性污泥硝化性能及种群结构的影响.结果表明,对于NH₄⁺-N浓度为500 mg·L^-1的废水,在HRT≥20 h时,氨氮去除率可达98%以上.若继续缩短HRT,污泥流失严重,尽管进水NH₄⁺-N浓度降低,出水NH₄⁺-N和NO₂     

多介质潜流人工湿地的水动力过程模拟

水动力过程是湿地净化功能发挥的重要机制之一.根据脉冲示踪试验,获得潜流人工湿地的水力停留时间分布曲线.针对其"多峰"现象,利用数学软件MATLAB7.0分别将对数正态分布、对流扩散模型以及考虑延迟的连续完全混合反应器模型时脉冲示踪试验数据进行叠加模拟,同时利用多流弥散模型拟合分析,结果表明:叠加模型和多流弥散模型均能较...     

排水沟渠炉渣与底泥对水中氮、磷截留效应

通过等温热力学吸附实验,将炉渣、炉渣+30%底泥、排水沟渠底泥对水中氨氮的去除效果进行比较,并采用Langmuir等温吸附方程对3种基质吸附氨氮、磷酸盐的量进行拟合;通过动力学实验,比较3种基质吸附速率.结果表明,炉渣、炉渣+30%底泥、排水沟渠底泥对氨氮的最大吸附量分别为0.49,1.03,1.75mg/g,对磷酸盐的最大吸附量分别为0.99,2.33,1.88mg/g;4h内基质吸附氨氮速率分别为:0.10,0.11,0.54mg/(g·h),2h内基质吸附磷酸盐速率分别为:0.048,0.051,0.096mg/(g·h).由于沟渠底泥较为松散、遇水冲刷易流失,故选择炉渣作为沟渠基质坝的填充物.基质坝能够减缓渠水流速,延长渠水的水力停留时间(HRT).     

应城市农村居民点人口和用地规模预测

预测2020年应城市的农村居民点人口规模和用地规模。分别利用自然增长法、时间序列分析法和灰色系统等方法预测2020年应城市的农村人口规模;利用人均定额指标法预测2020年应城市农村居民点的用地规模。研究结果显示:(1)利用自然增长法预测2020年应城市农村人口规模为62.74万人;(2)利用时间序列分析法预测2020年应城市农村人口规模为64.4万人;(3)利用灰色系统法进行微分方程模型拟合,预测2020年应城市农村人口规模为65.48万人;(4)通过以上三种方法的预测结果比较得出2020年应城市农村人口的平均规模为64.2万人;(5)利用人均定额指标法预测2020年应城市农村居民点用地规模将达7704 hm~2。研究结论为应城市城乡建设用地增减挂钩项目开展奠定坚实基础。     

The time process of post‐earthquake recovery: the Yao'an earthquake in China

Post‐disaster recovery is a constantly changing and developing process. The authors conducted three real‐name follow‐up surveys at 1, 12 and 18 months after the Yao'an earthquake, which had a surface wave magnitude of 6.0. They also calculated recovery ratios at different times and drew post‐earthquake domestic life recovery curves. Based on the recovery curves, the time trajectory of domestic life recovery takes on an approximate S‐type development and change process. The recovery time process of domestic life can be divided into four periods: emergency period (weeks 0–2(5)), early recovery period (weeks 2(5)–24), rapid recovery period (weeks 24–34) and late recovery period (weeks 34–60(80)).     

松散煤岩体钻封注耦合注浆锚固机理与试验研究

针对松散煤岩体巷道钻孔成孔困难、锚固力低的问题,提出了钻封注分次注浆时空耦合加固方法,实现了钻孔内“全长封孔+带压注浆”,分析了钻封注分次注浆加固技术原理,研发了自钻锚杆、封孔及加固注浆材料,其封孔材料具有膨胀性大、强度大和凝固时间快等特点,注浆加固材料具有速凝早强、流动性好、固结效果好及强度较高等优点。研究结果表明:全长封孔后带压注浆,浆液扩散半径大,钻封注锚杆锚固力相对于数脂锚固提高1倍以上,表明钻封注分次注浆加固技术具有较高的应用价值。     

城市道路应急交通组织措施及仿真评价*

为应对城市范围内的各类突发事件对城市道路交通系统带来的不利影响。在分析路径分配（交通分流）、反向交通组织、交叉口信号控制调整、交通管制措施等应急交通组织措施的基础上,以南京“6.20”道路交通事故为例,综合运用各种应急交通组织措施对城市局部路网进行应急交通组织,并通过VISSIM交通仿真软件对采用各种应急交通组织措施前后研究区域的行程时间进行对比。结果表明:采用应急交通组织措施对研究区域的交通疏导效果显著,且处理事故的时间越长,应急交通组织措施带来的优化效果越明显。     

基于集成学习的改进灰色瓦斯浓度序列预测

为有效提高煤矿瓦斯浓度动态预测精度,基于微分方程理论和最小二乘法,从灰色预测模型静态灰色作用量出发,优化灰色作用量,推导幂指数型灰色作用量的改进灰色瓦斯浓度预测算法,推导基于集成学习不同灰色作用量幂指数型灰色瓦斯预测模型,进而研究吉林八连城长期和短期瓦斯浓度监控数据预测精度.结果表明:瓦斯浓度时间序列近似线性时,基于集...