THE OPTIMAL TIME TO START THE OPERATION OF A DESALTING PLANT IN ISRAEL1

The study contains the methodology of finding the optimal time to start the operation of a desalting plant or any other non conventional source of water for agricultural use in Israel. The essence of the methodology is the moving equilibrium price and quantity of agricultural products. The market of agricultural products is represented by a single demand curve and a supply curve which is derived from the agricultural sector production function. Both the demand for and the supply of agricultural products functions are shifting over time. The marginal value product of water is the critical value that determines the optimal time of a desalting plant. The study is static in the sense that dynamic aspects per se are not dealt with-e.g. learning by doing of building and operating desalting plants. The empirical results although used for illustrative purposes can be used as reference points for other detailed and more ‘exact’ studies on water desalination.     

Sustainable Agriculture: New Paradigms and Old Practices? Increased Production with Management of Organic Inputs in Senegal

Farmers in Sahelian countries are confronted with a variety of soil fertility and management problems. During the last two decades, NGOs have worked with farmers and research institutions to develop and test practices that will increase food production, while at the same time enhance the natural resource base.Since 1987, The Rodale Institute (RI) has worked closely with farmers' associations and government institutions to promote regenerative agriculture-farming systems that prioritize the use of local resources while improving them as they are used to grow food, using agro-ecological methods. The Senegalese Agricultural Research Institute has collaborated in this program as a partner of RI. The Senegal Regenerative Agriculture Resource Center model has been applied as a new and viable approach that builds on traditional knowledge and farmer-to-farmer exchange.Research results on soil conservation and improvement have shown that fields spread with amended animal manure or compost yield greater harvests than fields farmed with traditional methods.     

自然灾害综合区划的基本类别及定量方法

依据区域灾害系统论原理,提出了以灾害强度、灾害势、抗灾力和灾度４个状态参量描述的区域自然灾害系统状态,建议以之为基础,将自然灾害综合区划分为灾害强度区划、灾害势区划、抗灾力区划和灾度我划４个基本类别、并结合自然灾害综合区划定量方法的讨论,以实例说明了上述基本类别类别划分的可行性。     

Prioritizing Wetland Restoration for Sediment Yield Reduction: A Conceptual Model

In a climate of limited resources, it is often necessary to prioritize restoration efforts geographically. The synoptic approach is an ecologically based tool for geographic prioritization of wetland protection and restoration efforts. The approach was specifically designed to incorporate best professional judgment in cases where information and resources are otherwise limited. Synoptic assessments calculate indices for functional criteria in subunits (watersheds, counties, etc.) of a region and then rank the subunits. Ranks can be visualized in region-scale maps which enable managers to identify areas where efforts optimize functional performance on a regional scale. In this paper, we develop a conceptual model for prioritizing watersheds whose wetlands can be restored to reduce total sediment yield at the watershed outlet. The conceptual model is designed to rank watersheds but not individual wetlands within a watershed. The synoptic approach is valid for applying the sediment yield reduction model because there is high demand for prioritizing disturbed wetlands for restoration, but there is limited, quantitative, accurate information available with which to make decisions. Furthermore, the cost of creating a comprehensive database is prohibitively high. Finally, because the model will be used for planning purposes, and, specifically, for prioritizing based on multiple decisions rather than optimizing a single decision, the consequence of prioritization errors is low. Model results cannot be treated as scientific findings. The conclusions of an assessment are based on judgement, but this judgement is guided by scientific principles and a general understanding of relevant ecological processes. The conceptual model was developed as the first step towards prioritizing of wetland restoration for sediment yield reduction in US EPA Region 4.     

九寨沟景区旅游环境容量研究

本文从不同的视角对九寨沟景区现状条件下的旅游生态环境容量、旅游空间容量、旅游服务设施容量和旅游社会环境容量进行了定量分析，获得了九寨沟景区现状条件下最大旅游环境容量和最佳旅游环境容量值；诊断出九寨沟旅游生态环境容量充分满足游客需求，但服务设施的不足限制了大量游人的进入。     

煤矿本质安全特征及管理方法研究

分析国内煤矿本质安全管理研究现状及存在问题,进一步讨论煤矿本质安全的内涵。探讨近年来我国煤矿事故发生的致因与根源,指出人的行为安全是我国煤矿本质安全的主要特征。通过研究我国煤矿事故的控制管理,选择事故率作为我国煤矿本质安全判别的参考标准;分析我国煤矿生产的现状与差异,提出了对我国煤矿的本质安全性进行分类判别的思想;从深入开展煤矿安全管理理论研究、加强煤矿安全管理立法、建立煤矿安全管理标准和有效组织机制等方面提出了实现煤矿本质安全的管理策略。     

民航安全风险定量评价模型研究

在对民航风险评价的现状和常用的定量风险评价方法进行分析的基础上,建立民航安全风险定量评价模型。在计算风险的可能性时,不仅考虑了风险的历史发生概率,而且利用风险发生概率影响因素所发生的变化对风险的历史发生概率进行修正,从而得出在当前情况下风险的发生概率,并且首次提出指数型权重的概念;在计算风险的后果时,考虑风险的直接损失和间接损失,并通过计算多种可能后果的期望的形式,综合考虑多种可能的后果情况;通过上述的可能性和严重性从而达到对安全风险进行定量评价的目的。最后,给出了一个算例,其结果表明该模型具有很强的实用性。     

COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE ENGINEERING DESIGNS1

ABSTRACT: Procedures are presented for comparing and evaluating alternative engineering designs for a particular water resources project. By using certain aspects of fuzzy set theory, it is possible to introduce both quantitative and qualitative considerations into the decisionmaking process. In addition, the viewpoints of the various interest groups involved with the water resources development can be realistically incorporated by the evaluation techniques for the alternative designs. Methods are given for eliminating undesirable alternatives and thereby obtaining a reduced set of possible feasible solutions to the problem. Because of the flexibility of the evaluation methods, the viable alternatives should not only satisfy economical, technical. environmental and other types of constraints, but these possible solutions should be politically feasible as well. A method is formulated for checking the sensitivity of the feasible results with respect to the factors that are considered in the analysis.     

可持续发展实验区灾害风险定量估算方法研究

作者将探索性数据分析方法引入区域灾害风险的定量估算，系统地建立了区域灾害风险的定量估算方法。计算实例表明，文中给出的方法可便捷地用于可持续发展实验区灾害风险评估。