Uncertainty management in integrated assessment modeling: towards a pluralistic approach

Integrated Assessment (IA) is an evolving research community that aims to address complex societal issues through an interdisciplinary process. The most-widely used method in Integrated Assessment is modeling. The state of the art in Integrated Assessment modeling is described in this paper in terms of history, general features, classes of models, and in terms of the strengths and weaknesses, and the dilemmasand challenges modelers face. One of the key challenges is the issue of uncertainty management. The paper outlines the sources and types of uncertainty modelers are confronted with. It then discusses how uncertainties are currently managed inIntegrated Assessment modeling, on which evaluation it is argued that complementary methods are needed that allow for pluralistic uncertainty management. The paperfinalises with discussing pluralistic concepts and approaches that are currently explored in the IA community and that seem promising in view of the challenge to incorporate explicitly more than one hidden perspective in models.     

GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION USING GENETIC ALGORITHMS AND SIMULATED ANNEALING: FORMULATION AND COMPARISON1

ABSTRACT: Genetic algorithms (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), two global search techniques, are coupled with MODFLOW, a commonly used groundwater flow simulation code, for optimal management of ground water resources under general conditions. The coupled simulation-optimization models allow for multiple management periods in which optimal pumping rates vary with time to reflect the changing flow conditions. The objective functions of the management models are of a very general nature, incorporating multiple cost terms such as the drilling cost, the installation cost, and the pumping cost. The models are first applied to two-dimensional maximum yield and minimum cost water supply problems with a single management period, and then to a multiple management period problem. The strengths and limitations of the GA and SA based models are evaluated by comparing the results with those obtained using linear programming, nonlinear programming, and differential dynamic programming. For the three example problems examined in this study, the GA and SA based models yield nearly identical or better solutions than the various programming methods. While SA tends to outperform GA in terms of the number of forward simulations needed, it uses more empirical control parameters which have significant impact on solution efficiency but are difficult to determine.     

关于含低CODcr、高CL-稀土废水中CODcr的测定方法探讨

本文通过实验研究，提出用低铬法(0．0250mol/L)测定稀土废水中的CODCr，该方法测定结果和高铬法比较误差较小，准确度提高，并给出了低铬法测定稀土废水中CODCr时，HgSO4最佳使用量。     

酚类化合物的QSAR研究

直接应用化合物的分子结构式产生的结构描述参量研究了45个酚类化合物的麻醉毒性和分子结构之间的相关性,用多元回归分析和神经网络法建立了相应的数学模型,并用其预测了5个酚类化合物的麻醉毒性.结果表明,所提取的结构参量较好地反映这类化合物的结构特性,而用神经网络法所得结果优于多元回归分析结果.     

基于Bp网络的强夯加固软土地基的影响因素量化分析

本文以河流相软土为例,应用检验合格的Bp网络模型,对影响强夯加固软土地基效果的因素进行量化分析。得到了液性指数I_L、被加固土层厚度h、排水设计、施工工艺与加固效果之间定量的关系,对实现强夯加固软土地基的信息化施工具有一定的意义。     

关于铜冶炼企业清洁生产主要途径的探讨

简要介绍了清洁生产的起源以及清洁生产的基本概念，并结合赤峰地区铜冶炼企业清洁生产工作的实际情况，提出了几条实现清洁生产的主要途径供参考，以促进铜冶炼企业的环境保护工作。     

Some questions about landscape modlling

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中国环保投入拉动内需问题初探

本文就加大环保投入对推动内需问题从现状及潜在力进行了分析初探，并就如何加大环保投入提出建议。     

内蒙古有机食品产业发展探讨

内蒙古有着独特的发展有机食品所应当具备的条件和资源,本文介绍了有机食品的概念及发展情况,对内蒙古有机食品产业的发展作出展望和探讨。     

西北地区(甘宁青)农业生态气候资源量化与评价

为了量化分析和分类评价农业生态气候资源 ,根据西北地区 (甘宁青 )165个气象台站多年平均的气候资料 ,采用农业生态气候适宜度的动态模型 ,首先计算了农业生态气候的资源指数、效能指数和利用系数 ;然后通过对多年逐月平均效能指数的模糊动态聚类 ,划分出农业生态气候资源的12个类型并进行了相应评价 ,结果表明农业生态气候的资源潜力、匹配状况和利用程度具有明显的地域分异特征 ,进而在此基础上提出了开发利用农业生态气候资源的若干建议