原油集输联合站故障树分析研究

采用故障树分析法对原油集输联合站生产工艺流程和危险危害因素进行分析,确定原油集输联合站的故障树因素表,以该站故障为顶上事件,以火灾爆炸、介质泄漏、其他危险作为故障树的中间事件,建立联合站故障树。通过定性定量分析,求取联合站故障树的最小割集为77组,进而确定故障树顶事件的事故发生概率为5.68×10-3和底事件结构重要度,得出影响集输联合站安全性的重要因素为通风不良、储罐密封不良、液体腐蚀、盘管穿孔和人员误操作等。因而提出加强原油集输联合站安全监察和监控措施,及时地发现和处理故障,以提高联合站运行安全可靠性和生产效率。     

人的不安全行为对高危行业从业人员安全评价的影响研究

从危险源、事故隐患的理念出发,定义安全工程中"不安全人"的概念;提出了某些从业人员由于生理心理上的影响,因而有其不可控制性;存在着不可控制的隐患,需要进行基于定量方法的测量、辨识和评估。在现代安全工程需要安全评价的基础上,建立一套全新的针对高危行业从业人员的安全评价方法,是对目前的安全评价的有益补充。     

危险品区多米诺效应的风险分析

根据多米诺效应的特点,提出了一种针对危险品区域的多米诺效应的风险分析方法.通过多米诺效应事故场景的辨识、设备的概率损坏模型和多米诺分析技术,分析区域内所有危险设备的多米诺效应风险指数和设备在多米诺事故链中的传播作用,定量分析多米诺事故后果.通过该方法可以得到区域内设备的多米诺效应风险指数和多米诺事故的后果风险.通过该方法可建立起区域的安全防范措施,从而有效预防潜在的多米诺效应,降低事故风险.     

Human rights and proactive displacement: determining the appropriate balance between the duty to protect and the right to remain

The proactive displacement by public authorities of populations from areas perceived to be exposed to a high risk of disaster presents complex human rights challenges. Provided that no ulterior motive is at play, the use of compulsory evacuations and relocations as policy responses to such risk is mandated by the duty to protect the right to life. However, proactive displacement in the interest of saving lives can be problematic as such measures can lead to the limitation of other human rights, resulting in an intricate assessment of whether compulsory evacuation or permanent relocation is proportional in any given circumstance. Such an analysis demands critical attention by public authorities to the perception of the disaster risk in question and problematises claims to objectivity of official risk assessments. Furthermore, it poses the question as to whether measures designed to address the disaster risk in question that are less intrusive than relocation may be available to public authorities.     

QSAR models for predicting the toxicity of halogenated phenols to Tetrahymena

Halogenated phenols are industrial pollutants which may cause serious damage to the environment. In this work, a two-dimensional (2D) and two three-dimensional (3D) quantitative structure–activity relationship models for the toxicity prediction of halogenated phenols in Tetrahymena were developed. The structural factors that mainly influence toxicity were explored, agreeing with previously reported data. The results obtained with the 3D model were in agreement with those obtained with the 2D model. According to our findings, several new molecules with different predicted activities were designed.     

Socioeconomic backwardness and vulnerability to climate change: evidence from Uttar Pradesh state in India

This study tests the thesis that ‘vulnerability to climate change is not only a result of biophysical events alone but also influenced by the socioeconomic conditions in which climate change occurs’. The study chose Uttar Pradesh (UP), a state in India, for its importance in the nation's food and nutrition security programme and its high sensitivity to climate change. It uses an indicator approach to see which districts of UP are the most vulnerable to climate change, and attempts to identify the factors on a set of explanatory variables. The study finds that infrastructurally and economically developed districts are less vulnerable to climate change; in other words, vulnerability to climate change and variability is linked with social and economic development. This observation is corroborated by the findings of relational analysis wherein livestock, forestry, consumption of fertilizer, per capita income, and infant mortality rate are observed to be important correlates of vulnerability to climate change.     

Building community resilience: can everyone enjoy a good life?

Initiatives to reduce community carbon emissions and foster sustainable lifestyles have had varying degrees of success. There is now a need for a re-energised, concerted and joined-up approach that places environmental issues in a wider context – one that improves quality of life while building community resilience. This involves enhancing the capacity of neighbourhoods to recover, respond and adapt to environmental and socio-economic changes. This paper examines the experience gained in a participatory action research (PAR) study to build community resilience, where facilitators supported residents to take ownership of their own agendas. The New Earswick Good Life Initiative (GLI) was an 18-month project undertaken in a low-income suburb of York (UK). A range of approaches were used to identify activities which had the most potential to nurture resilience and foster a shift towards greater environmental sustainability. The GLI highlighted how the introduction of new ideas not only need to be locally relevant but also requires care and time in order for them to embed within community. Altering the way a community manages its environment involves transforming social relationships, strengthening institutions and influencing local power balances. Furthermore, it is necessary to build social capital, knowledge, leadership skills and support social networks to allow communities to effectively engage with relevant local and national policies. Only by providing opportunities to develop these resilient attributes can increased local responsibility be successful. The paper concludes by providing guidance on strengthening community resilience and delivering pro-environmental behaviour change.     

A framework for reforming India's forest biodiversity management regime

India's forest biodiversity management regime is analysed at the policy, legal and institutional levels, from the perspective of the triple objectives of the Convention on Biological Diversity and the principles of the Indian constitution. The forest biodiversity management regime has both structural and functional flaws that render it largely incapable of facing the challenge of increasing biodiversity degradation and deepening poverty among the Adivasis and other forest‐dependent communities. The paper argues for the reform of the forest biodiversity management regime and offers recommendations in regard to most aspects of the regime, with a view of putting the country's conservation enterprise on a course that is effective, sustainable and inclusive, rejecting the report of the High Power Committee (HPC) (also known as the Subramanian Committee), which is premised on easing corporate access to forests.     

Evolution of China’s water issues as framed in Chinese mainstream newspaper

There is an urgent need globally to trigger fundamental societal changes in water management away from existing unsustainable paradigms. This paper attempts to understand the evolution of newspaper coverage of water issues in China by analyzing water-related articles in a major national newspaper, the People’s Daily, over the period 1946–2012 using a content analysis approach. The major findings include the following: (1) water issues were in relatively prominent positions in the newspaper; (2) the reporting of water issues in China experienced three stages: 1946 to the middle of 1980s—flood and drought control and water for food production, the middle of 1980s to 1997—water for economic development, and 1998 to the present—water for the environmental sustainability and economic development; (3) the reporting of water issues in the People’s Daily clearly reflected China’s top-down water resources management system, and no “real” public opinions on water were reported during the study period; and (4) the People’s Daily is just a wind vane of Chinese mainstream values and policies on water. The findings supported the realist assumption that the societal value changes on water issues in China were triggered by a range of factors including biophysical pressure (floods and droughts), political campaign (the Cultural Revolution), macro-economic reform (Reform and Opening-up), water institutional arrangement (the Water Law), and water management reform (the No. 1 Central Document on water reform). While there are similarities and differences between this study and other studies, important implications for more sustainable water management are a need to strengthen academic specialists’ and NGO’s voices in the newspaper to create a better informed public, and to stimulate practices toward sustainable water use.     

基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析

针对海洋立管破坏失效事故资料不完备及发生概率缺乏精确值的现状,提出了基于模糊故障树的海洋立管破坏失效风险分析方法。通过对现有的海洋立管破坏失效事故原因的统计分析,建立了以"海洋立管破坏失效"为顶事件的故障树。在对故障树进行定性分析的基础上,得到了引起海洋立管破坏失效的105个各阶最小割集,确定了海洋立管发生破坏失效的主要模式。采用专家判断法与模糊集理论结合的方法对故障树进行了定量分析,评估了故障树底事件的发生概率,并计算了故障树顶事件的发生概率。通过模糊故障树分析得到了海洋立管系统的薄弱环节,从而可以对其采取有效措施,以降低事故发生概率及提高系统可靠性。