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231.
232.
民航安全风险定量评价模型研究 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:3
张元 《中国安全科学学报》2007,17(9):140-145
在对民航风险评价的现状和常用的定量风险评价方法进行分析的基础上,建立民航安全风险定量评价模型。在计算风险的可能性时,不仅考虑了风险的历史发生概率,而且利用风险发生概率影响因素所发生的变化对风险的历史发生概率进行修正,从而得出在当前情况下风险的发生概率,并且首次提出指数型权重的概念;在计算风险的后果时,考虑风险的直接损失和间接损失,并通过计算多种可能后果的期望的形式,综合考虑多种可能的后果情况;通过上述的可能性和严重性从而达到对安全风险进行定量评价的目的。最后,给出了一个算例,其结果表明该模型具有很强的实用性。 相似文献
233.
利用小波的时频局部化的特征,将信息的加密过程由传统的时域中进行改为在时域和频域中进行,达到信息加密和增强信息安全性的目的。采用两种方法实现信息的加密与解密的过程,一种是将明文保存为图像文件格式,对图像文件进行小波的分解与重构,实现信息的加密与解密;另一种是将明文数值化为一个系数矩阵,对数值矩阵进行小波的分解与重构,实现信息的加密与解密。通过小波分解过程进行加密,小波的重构过程进行解密,改变了传统的在空域中通过一系列的移位、迭代和置换的方式进行的加密过程,因此也不能通过传统的解密方式进行解密,增强了信息的安全性。由于小波的多样性,不同的小波变换得到的结果也会不同,增加了解密的难度,保证了数据的安全。 相似文献
234.
Abstract: Identifying relationships between landscape hydrogeological setting, riparian hydrological functioning and riparian zone sensitivity to climate and water quality changes is critical in order to best use riparian zones as best management practices in the future. In this study, we investigate water table dynamics, water flow path and the relative importance of precipitation, deep ground water (DG) and seep water as sources of water to a riparian zone in a deeply incised glacial till valley of the Midwest. Data indicate that water table fluctuations are strongly influenced by soil texture and to a lesser extent by upland sediment stratigraphy producing seeps near the slope bottom. The occurrence of till in the upland and at 1.7‐2 m in the riparian zone contributes to maintaining flow parallel to the ground surface at this site. Lateral ground‐water fluxes at this site with a steep topography in the upland (16%) and loam soil near the slope bottom are small (<10 l/d/m stream length) and intermittent. A shift in flow path from a lateral direction to a down valley direction is observed in the summer despite the steep concave topography and the occurrence of seeps at the slope bottom. Principal component and discriminant analysis indicate that riparian water is most similar to seep water throughout the year and that DG originating from imbedded sand and gravel layers in the lower till unit is not a major source of water to riparian zones in this setting. Water quality data and the dependence of the riparian zone for recharge on seep water suggest that sites in this setting may be highly sensitive to changes in precipitation and water quality in the upland in the future. A conceptual framework describing the hydrological functioning of riparian zones on this setting is presented to generalize the finding of this study. 相似文献
235.
Nora M. Znotinas Keith William Hipel 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1979,15(1):44-59
ABSTRACT: Procedures are presented for comparing and evaluating alternative engineering designs for a particular water resources project. By using certain aspects of fuzzy set theory, it is possible to introduce both quantitative and qualitative considerations into the decisionmaking process. In addition, the viewpoints of the various interest groups involved with the water resources development can be realistically incorporated by the evaluation techniques for the alternative designs. Methods are given for eliminating undesirable alternatives and thereby obtaining a reduced set of possible feasible solutions to the problem. Because of the flexibility of the evaluation methods, the viable alternatives should not only satisfy economical, technical. environmental and other types of constraints, but these possible solutions should be politically feasible as well. A method is formulated for checking the sensitivity of the feasible results with respect to the factors that are considered in the analysis. 相似文献
236.
Shaun K. Wilson Nicholas A. J. Graham Rebecca Fisher Jan Robinson Kirsty Nash Karen Chong‐Seng Nicholas V. C. Polunin Riaz Aumeeruddy Rodney Quatre 《Conservation biology》2012,26(6):995-1004
Disturbance plays an important role in structuring marine ecosystems, and there is a need to understand how conservation practices, such as the designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), facilitate postdisturbance recovery. We evaluated the association of MPAs, herbivorous fish biomass, substrate type, postdisturbance coral cover, and change in macroalgal cover with coral recovery on the fringing reefs of the inner Seychelle islands, where coral mortality after a 1998 bleaching event was extensive. We visually estimated benthic cover and fish biomass at 9 sites in MPAs where fishing is banned and at 12 sites where fishing is permitted in 1994, 2005, 2008, and 2011. We used analysis of variance to examine spatial and temporal variations in coral cover and generalized additive models to identify relations between coral recovery and the aforementioned factors that may promote recovery. Coral recovery occurred on all substrate types, but it was highly variable among sites and times. Between 2005 and 2011 the increase in coral cover averaged 1%/year across 21 sites, and the maximum increase was 4%/year. However, mean coral cover across the study area (14%) remained at half of 1994 levels (28%). Sites within MPAs had faster rates of coral recovery than sites in fished areas only where cover of macroalgae was low and had not increased over time. In MPAs where macroalgae cover expanded since 1998 there was no recovery. Where coral was recovering on granite reefs there was a shift in relative prevalence of colony life‐form from branching to encrusting species. This simplification of reef structure may affect associated reef fauna even if predisturbance levels of coral cover are attained. Efecto de la Expansión de Macroalgas y Áreas Marinas Protegidas sobre la Recuperación de Coral Después de una Perturbación Climática 相似文献
237.
可持续发展实验区灾害风险定量估算方法研究 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
作者将探索性数据分析方法引入区域灾害风险的定量估算,系统地建立了区域灾害风险的定量估算方法。计算实例表明,文中给出的方法可便捷地用于可持续发展实验区灾害风险评估。 相似文献
238.
改善企业安全文化技术手段的应用研究 总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1
安全文化建设在我国企业界受到重视,但是缺乏安全文化建设明确、实用的方法.将安全文化定义为"影响企业安全业绩的核心要素",设计Likert量表、硬件设备和计算机管理系统对安全文化进行定量测量,根据测量结果设计有针对性的培训可以快速改善企业的安全文化.从实际的企业测量可知,通过三次测量、两次抽样培训,企业安全文化可以提高8%左右,说明测量和培训相结合的方法是企业安全文化改善的有效手段. 相似文献
239.
240.
Fairness is a relative concept with multiple, subjective and competing notions of what it is, how to achieve it, and for which beneficiaries. Fairtrade International's collaborative efforts to develop a standard to certify Fairtrade Carbon Credits (FCCs) brought together multiple stakeholders in a deliberative context. This paper uses Q methodology to empirically assess the notions of fairness this wider consultation group held. Three distinct ‘factors’ (or perspectives) are identified, and discussed in relation to a multi-dimensional framework for exploring fairness. The first factor prioritises development delivered through organisations, participation in decision-making and use of minimum prices to adjust trade imbalances. The second factor conceptualises a non-exclusive approach maximising generation and sales of FCCs, involving a commodity chain where everyone performs their optimum function with financial transparency and information-sharing to facilitate negotiations. The third factor involves minimising intervention, allowing carbon commodity chains and project set-ups to function efficiently, and make their own adjustments to enhance benefits access and quality received by beneficiaries. The three factors reflect debates within carbon and fair trade spheres about who should be playing which roles, who should be accessing which benefits, and how people should be supported to interact on an uneven playing field. Communicating findings to standards organisations enables a more open and inclusive policy process. Our research provides a critical reflection on these plural notions of fairness, identifying areas of (dis)agreement within the FCC dialogue, and provides a wider, yet manageable, set of inputs for supporting the FCC process during its inception and subsequent implementation. Clearer definitions of “fairness” are also useful for standards organisations in reviewing ex post whether “fairness” goals have been met. 相似文献