Global climate change and the politics of disaster

The paper explores the potential political impact of global climate change and, more generally, of natural disaster. Because the affluent West has largely tamed the natural and the social domains, popular clamor for government to anticipate, prevent, and redress disaster increases. I delineate several consequences of the new politics of disaster.     

基于负产品投入产出分析的循环经济定量化评价及实证研究

借用投入产出法的矩阵思想，构建了一个部门间以负产品关联的投入产出分析模型。基于此模型建立了衡量研究区域循环经济模式下的各生产部门的收益与贡献以及区域整体的环境效益和经济效益的评价指标。实证研究中，应用上述指标对深圳市南山区月亮湾循环经济产业示范园区进行了相关评价与分析，同时指出了该评价方法的优点与不足。     

Innovative policy practices to advance building energy efficiency and retrofitting: Approaches,impacts and challenges in ten C40 cities

This study examines ten programmes to advance energy efficiency and retrofitting of existing, private sector buildings in C40 cities in Asia-Pacific and USA. We set out to identify differing policy approaches, together with potential impacts and implementation challenges for each. Findings unearthed six policy models – both mandatory and voluntary – with unique impacts and challenges. We demonstrate that innovation occurs without new policy inventions and largely by necessity, as new features are added and generic models are adapted to local circumstances. Our sample demonstrated experimentation with benchmarking in the USA, comprehensive regulation in Asia, and voluntary approaches in Australia. Overall, environmental impacts are particularly slow to emerge and plagued with attribution challenges. We found limited evidence of benchmarking programme effectiveness in reducing energy consumption in the short-term, but some indication of mid-term outcomes. Driven by unique local circumstances, the cap-and-trade model stood out by fostering large, sustained and attributable GHG emission reductions and retrofitting. Market and social impacts are highly significant across all programmes, highlighting needs to consider non-environmental impacts in policy evaluation. We emphasise the complementary potential of voluntary and regulatory approaches to advancing energy efficiency and climate resilience. We also underscore the potential for reporting or benchmarking programmes to later transition to models mandating performance improvements, such as cap-and-trade.     

TREE RING RECONSTRUCTIONS OF STREAMFLOW FOR THREE CANADIAN PRAIRIE RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: Information regarding long term hydrological variability is critical for the effective management of surface water resources. In the Canadian Prairie region, growing dependence on major river systems for irrigation and other consumptive uses has resulted in an increasing vulnerability to hydrological drought and growing interprovincial tension. This study presents the first dendrochronological records of streamflow for Canadian Prairie rivers. We present 1,113‐year, 522‐year, and 325‐year reconstructions of total water year (October to September) streamflow for the North Saskatchewan, South Saskatchewan, and Saskatchewan Rivers, respectively. The reconstructions indicate relatively high flows during the 20th Century and provide evidence of past prolonged droughts. Low flows during the 1840s correspond with aridity that extended over much of the western United States. Similarly, an exceptional period of prolonged low flow conditions, approximately 900 A.D. to 1300 A.D., is coincident with evidence of sustained drought across central and western North America. The 16th Century megadrought of the western United States and Mexico, however, does not appear to have had a major impact on the Canadian rivers. The dendrohydrological records illustrate the risks involved if future water policy and infrastructure development in the Canadian Prairies are based solely on records of streamflow variability over the historical record.     

Forest Stand Dynamics and Livestock Grazing in Historical Context

Abstract:  Livestock grazing has been implicated as a cause of the unhealthy condition of ponderosa pine forest stands in the western United States. An evaluation of livestock grazing impacts on natural resources requires an understanding of the context in which grazing occurred. Context should include timing of grazing, duration of grazing, intensity of grazing, and species of grazing animal. Historical context, when and under what circumstances grazing occurred, is also an important consideration. Many of the dense ponderosa pine forests and less-than-desirable forest health conditions of today originated in the early 1900s. Contributing to that condition was a convergence of fire, climate, and grazing factors that were unique to that time. During that time period, substantially fewer low-intensity ground fires (those that thinned dense stands of younger trees) were the result of reduced fine fuels (grazing), a substantial reduction in fires initiated by Native Americans, and effective fire-suppression programs. Especially favorable climate years for tree reproduction occurred during the early 1900s. Exceptionally heavy, unregulated, unmanaged grazing by very large numbers of horses, cattle, and sheep during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries occurred in most of the U.S. West and beginning earlier in portions of the Southwest. Today, livestock numbers on public lands are substantially lower than they were during this time and grazing is generally managed. Grazing then and grazing now are not the same.     

长江上游地区泥石流灾害敏感性量化评价研究

泥石流敏感性分析对灾害分析评价预测具有重要作用。文章以长江上游为研究区,选择坡度、相对高差、地层岩性、年降雨量、地震烈度等5方面因素为评价因子,探讨运用GIS技术管理分析泥石流灾害信息和区域泥石流敏感性分析的方法。量化评价因子的作用分值大小,有效表达泥石流敏感性指数(DFSI),进而,结合空间分析与条件概率模型,实现了区域泥石流敏感性分析并制作了泥石流敏感性专题图。长江上游地区泥石流敏感性区域具有一定的规律性,高度敏感区主要分布在第一级阶梯与第二级阶梯的过渡地带,比较集中的区域有雅砻江中下游、安宁河、小江、普渡河、大渡河中下游、理塘河、白龙江、岷江上游、涪江上游等干支流的5～10 km范围内;中度敏感区主要分布在高度敏感区的外围约10～30 km范围内。利用历史泥石流资料验证,表明已经发生的泥石流主要分布在泥石流敏感性指数较高地区,说明敏感性分析的结果基本反映出研究区泥石流敏感性特性。     

便携式GC/MS对空气中苯系物的定量分析方法研究

文章采用简单快速的采气袋配气方式,以苯系物为例,研究了便携式GC/MS对大气中痕量有机污染物的快速定量测定方法。分别在Full scan和建立的SIM扫描方式下对苯系物标准样品进行了测定。对比实验结果表明,Full scan和SIM两种扫描方式下苯系物测定结果的相对标准偏差分别在5.1%~28.4%和13%~19%之间,回收率范围分别为46%~186%和60%~110%,方法检出限范围分别为2.504~10.63μg/m3和0.494~2.399μg/m3。总体而言,SIM方式在测定结果的精密度与准确度上均优于Full scan方式。室内外空气样品的测试结果映证了SIM方式在对痕量有机污染物测定的优势。     

牧民对气候变化的认知及应对措施——以镶黄旗为例

文章通过对镶黄旗60户牧户的调查访问,分析牧户对气候变化和极端气候灾害事件的认知和应对措施,结果显示:牧民对气温有较强的认知能力,而对于降雨和大风的认知与实际相悖;气候变化下牧户对草场情况和水资源状况等生态环境变化的认知来看,牧民对牧草产量、植物种类、土壤沙化、鼠虫害、地下水变化的认知比较明显;牧民对气候变化所采取的措施主要有政策措施、帮助措施和合作方式,而3种措施中牧民主要采取草畜平衡和春节休牧、畜种改良和防疫措施、邻里间的互助来应对气候变化。影响镶黄旗牧民的主要灾害天气主要是旱灾,占灾害天气的75%,从气候灾害事件影响方面的认知来看;气候灾害事件对畜、草、人的影响比较大,且影响程度为畜>草>人;牧民面对气候灾害事件主要采取处理牲畜、购买草料、走场、圈养、外出打工等5种应对措施。     

苯甲酸盐厌氧驯化体系中三氯乙烯的还原脱氯特性

采用气相色谱法实时监测了厌氧条件下,以苯甲酸盐为唯一碳源的驯化活性污泥体系对三氯乙烯(TCE)的还原脱氯情况;同时,结合454焦磷酸测序和实时荧光定量PCR技术对该体系中的微生物群落结构及脱卤拟球菌(DHC)的数量进行分析.结果表明,该驯化体系在94 d内能将TCE完全去除,最终转化产物为一氯乙烯(VC),同时伴随大量的甲烷产生;体系中微生物的多样性很高,涵盖了16个门、33个纲、52个目、88个科和129个属,而且体系中约有51.2%的微生物的分类地位尚未明确,说明体系中还存在很多未知的功能菌;体系对TCE的降解过程其实就是还原脱氯菌与其它功能菌相互作用的结果,且起主要还原脱氯作用的是携带tce A功能基因的DHC.     

空冷塔对大气环境温度湿度影响的数值模拟

运用FLUENT建立空冷塔模型进行数值模拟,研究不同出口温度、环境温度和侧风速度下空冷塔与大气环境之间的传热.结果表明：不同出口温度及环境温度对空冷塔与大气环境间的换热有显著影响.其中,当出口温度升高到328K时,空冷塔近地面层空气温度上升6.22K,而其相对湿度由47.7%降至31.78%,空气干燥程度增大;随着环境温度与排气温度间温差增大,换热效果更为显著,表现为冬季空气干燥程度变化最大,春秋次之,夏季最小.不同环境风速对空冷塔与大气环境间换热区域影响显著,其中,当侧风风速为7m/s时,热交换影响区域可达11.17km,且空冷塔近处相对湿度由47.7%降至39.47%.