核素示踪法研究农耕地土壤侵蚀的定量模型及其评价

应用137Cs示踪技术估算农耕地土壤侵蚀量的定量模型主要有两类径流小区上建立的经验关系式及各种理论模型.文章主要对各种主要模型作了简要介绍,并对各种模型的优点、局限性进行了比较和评价;指出今后在模型的建立和应用中注意的问题.     

应用ICE和PCA方法评价硝基芳烃的综合毒性

应用种间相关估算(ICE)方法预测50种硝基芳烃缺失的生物毒性数据,对通过ICE计算获得的各种生物毒性数据进行主成分分析(PCA),计算综合毒性因子(ITI),进行综合毒性评价.结果表明,除了黄瓜种子发芽抑制毒性以外,其他各种生物毒性都在1%的显著水平上呈显著的线性正相关.硝基芳烃的这些生物毒性机制基本相似,因此应用ICE方法预测其毒性数据是可行的.QSAR分析表明,ITI与分子最低未占轨道能E_lumo有显著的相关性,r=0.869,表明亲电反应性是硝基芳烃的各种生物毒性所综合反映的主要致毒机理.基于ICE和PCA方法计算得到的ITI与基于QSAR和PCA方法计算得到的ITI的大小趋势具有一致性,ICE与PCA方法的联合应用可以成功地评价和预测硝基芳烃的综合毒性.     

油田硫酸盐还原菌快速定量检测方法

现有油田废水中硫酸盐还原菌检测周期长、检测费用较高,本研究应用聚合酶链式反应(PCR)技术与倍比稀释法(MPN)相结合的DSR-MPN-PCR法,对硫酸盐还原菌进行快速定量检测.从废水中制备了直接用于PCR扩增的菌液,保证了定量准确性;建立以硫酸盐还原菌亚硫酸盐还原酶基因(Dsr)为靶位点的通用探针DSR1F和DSR5R的反应体系和扩增条件.结果表明,该方法检测灵敏度明显比液体稀释培养法高2个数量级,真实地表征了废水中实际的SRB菌数量,整个操作过程需要3～4　h,检测结果非常稳定,降低了检测费用,可以在生产中应用.     

Microscale Spatial Variation in Forest Litter Phytotoxicity

The spatial variation (within a 100 × 100 m plot) in the pollution of forest litter with heavy metals (Cu, Cd, Pb, and Zn), its acidity, and phytotoxicity (measured by the results of the root test using seedlings from a genetically homogeneous sample of common dandelion (Taraxacum officinale s.l.) have been estimated. Forest litter has been sampled in three zones differing in the toxic impact of long-term polymetal pollution by emissions from a copper-smelting plant emissions in the Middle Urals. The phytotoxicity variation is maximum in a moderately polluted plot, where both very high and very low pollution levels were observed, which determines a substantially nonlinear dose–effect relationship. The litter phytotoxicity is mainly accounted for by exchangeable forms of metals. Biological testing of samples from the most polluted plot has demonstrated marked antagonism between heavy metals and acidity.     

高风险社会及其对策研究

经济和技术不断发展的过程中伴随的副作用使人类社会逐渐处于“风险社会”乃至“高风险社会”之中。当前我国正处于结构调整和社会转型中,存在着自然灾害、事故灾难、公共卫生事件和社会安全事件等各种各样的风险。在对现代社会风险的特点进行归纳后,对其量化方法也进行了初步探讨,并结合我国实际情况从影响风险大小的各因素入手,拟定了若干风险管理对策,对如何面对“风险社会”和提高风险承受能力可起到积极的参考作用。     

区域农业水分供应脆弱性分析及定量损失评估

采用积分湿度指数方法,建立了区域农业水分供应脆弱性分析模型,并以山东省为案例进行了应用研究,结果表明:无论春、夏、秋季还是年平均的积分湿度指数值,均呈从东南到西北递减的趋势,说明自然降水对农业需水的满足程度沿该方向递减。对山东省而言,农业用水的满足程度在季节上也存在较大的差异,夏季降水在农业满足程度方面最高、秋季次之、春季最差。由于气候因子的年变异较大,积分湿度指数的年变异亦大;根据作物产量的形成为一动态过程,作物整个生育期内的每一个生长阶段都对其最终产量有一定的贡献,利用积分回归模式对作物全生育期中每一旬降水因子与产量的定量关系进行模拟分析,得到了主要农作物全生育期内每旬降水对最终产量的贡献系数。根据每旬降水对产量的贡献系数和作物受旱指标,建立了作物旱灾损失评估模型。     

Variation in Sensitivity of Aquatic Species to Toxicants: Practical Consequences for Effect Assessment of Chemical Substances

5 –10⁶ times higher compared with less sensitive species. The use of assessment factors in effect assessment procedures may lead to an underestimation of effects on the more sensitive species. For many priority pollutants there is little information on their ecotoxicity. Predictive techniques are needed to compensate for this lack of data. Knowledge of the relation between modes of action of compounds and interspecies variation in sensitivity should be integrated in risk assessment procedures in order to make more efficient use of the limited financial resources available.     

GIS-based assessment of the threat to world forests by patterns of non-sustainable civilisation nature interaction

The paper presents a novel transdisciplinary approach to investigate non-sustainable civilisation–nature interactions in the context of global change. The approach rests on the decomposition of intricate dynamics of Global Change into problematic patterns civilisation nature interactions (‘syndromes’) this is done by an iterative process of observations, data and theoretical system analysis and GIS-based modelling attempts. These syndromes of global change characterise endangering and risky developments of civilisation nature interaction and represent a baseline for measuring and indicating ‘non-sustainability’; in order to have a sustainable development it is necessary to have a far-reaching absence of syndromes. They encompass the core problems of global change, e.g. soil degradation, climate change, threats to biodiversity or global deforestation. Patterns are defined as characteristic constellations of global change trends (‘symptoms’). Cause–effect schemes of symptoms and their interrelations are constituted as complex phenomena resulting from interactions over the different spheres of the Earth system (biosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, population, pedosphere, economy, psychosocial sphere, social organisation, science and technology). The approach is illustrated by an analysis of civilisation–nature interaction patterns relevant for global deforestation. Global forest ecosystems have been chosen for this investigation because of their important role in the global carbon cycle and their importance for biological diversity. The resulting geographical patchwork of the combined dispositions and intensities of the different syndromes describes current and future regional threats to forests by their underlying global cause–effect patterns of civilisation–nature interaction.     

我国城市污水处理技术剖析及对策研究

以我国近10年城市污水处理情况为基础,并参照国外情况,对排污系统建设、废水治理设施以及污水处理效果等方面的多项技术指标逐一进行了剖析,定量地分析评价了我国废水处理技术状况,并提出相应的对策建议,以求为提高我国的污水处理总体水平提供技术参考.      

开都河灌区灌溉引水对博斯腾湖面积影响的定量分析

开都河是注入博斯腾湖的最大河流,1958～2002年间平均入湖水量达23.62×10⁸m³,占博斯腾湖总补给量的80%以上。1958年以来开都河灌区灌溉引水量维持在8.17×10⁸m³～13.18×10⁸m³之间,其中20世纪60年代灌溉引水量平均为10.14×10⁸m³/a,占开都河径流量的31.1%;70年代引水量上升到12.15×10⁸m³/a,为开都河径流量的36.5%;80年代引水量下降到11.29×10⁸m³/a,但引水量仍占开都河径流量的36.5%;90年代灌溉引水量进一步降至9.85×10⁸m³/a,仅占径流量的27.1%。通过水量平衡分析和相关回归计算,得出开都河灌区灌溉引水对博斯腾湖面积影响的数值:20世纪60年代平均值为62.4km²;70年代平均值为80.8km²;80年代、90年代分别为90.4km²、76.7km²,2000年以来平均仅为41.3km²。由此可见,45年来开都河灌区灌溉引水对博斯腾湖面积的影响经历了弱→强→弱的变化过程。