Fear in grasslands: the effect of Eurasian kestrels on skylark abundances

Predation has received considerable theoretical and empirical support in population regulation. The effect of predators, however, could be achieved in direct (killing) or indirect effects (such as displacement). In this paper, we explored the relationship between Eurasian kestrels Falco tinnunculus and skylarks Alauda arvensis in Mediterranean grasslands. First, we analysed the presence of skylarks in the kestrel diet over 9 years. We also compared a grassland area of experimentally increased kestrel density and a second grassland as control area to evaluate the direct or indirect effect on skylark abundance. We also considered two different habitats, grazed and ungrazed plots. If skylark abundance decreased as the kestrel breeding season progressed in high-density kestrel area compared with the control area, it would suggest a direct effect (predator hypothesis). If skylark abundance remains constant in both areas of contrasting kestrel density, it would suggest that skylarks avoid kestrels (avoidance hypothesis). We found that skylark abundance decreased in the kestrel area from the beginning of kestrel nest-box installation to recent years. The rate of skylark consumption decreased in a 9-year period as kestrel abundance increased, although the total amount skylark consumption did not show a decreasing trend. In addition, skylarks were more abundant in the kestrel-free area than in the kestrel area. Finally, we found that skylark abundance did not change through the kestrel breeding period in relation to grazing. We suggest that an increased breeding density of kestrels during their breeding period may force the skylarks to breed in other areas, which may explain the decline of their abundance.     

装备环境适应性的定量化表征技术探讨

环境适应性的定量化表征技术对装备环境适应性的论证、考核、评价具有十分重要的意义,由于定量表征技术的复杂性,至今没有形成统一的方法。依据环境适应性的定义、内涵,将环境适应性定量表示为环境适应度,定义了环境适应度的概念,说明了环境适应度各计算参数的含义,并以算例的方式对环境适应度的计算进行了说明。     

珠三角SO_2污染区划及来源的定量研究

文章利用珠三角粤港空气质量监测网13个空气质量监测点2009年11月SO2监测浓度,通过聚类分析对珠三角SO2进行污染特征区划,最终选定该时段内3个核心关注区域,分别为广州中心城区、佛山江门片区、珠江口西侧片区。发现佛山江门片区的污染最为严重,其次是珠江口西侧片区。根据一定标准,选定11月23-27日为典型污染过程,11-16日为典型清洁时段。利用MM5-CALPUFF模式对这3个区域,在典型污染过程与清洁时段内的SO2平均浓度进行来源分析,发现在选定的模拟时段内,广州中心城区在污染过程中以本地污染为主(贡献率达62.47%),清洁时段则广州本地污染(49.43%)与东莞输送污染(40.27%)并重;佛山江门片区在污染过程和清洁时段均以外地输送污染(分别为65.06%和68.92%)为主,主要输入源地是广州和东莞;珠江口西侧片区在污染过程和清洁时段均是输送污染与本地污染并重(污染过程输送污染44.10%,本地污染51.83%;清洁时段输送污染50.25%,本地污染41.11%),其中污染过程中,输送污染的主要输入源地是深圳与东莞,清洁时段输送污染比重略大于本地污染,主要输入源地只有东莞。研究结果为控制及治理珠三角SO2源提供科学依据。     

溶解无机碳的拉曼光谱定量分析可行性研究

海水溶解无机碳(DIC)的平均浓度约为2.05mmol/L,其中HCO3-占93%, CO32-为6%,CO2和H2CO3共1%.HCO3-的拉曼散射活性太弱,而其他成分的浓度又过低,使得海水中DIC组分不能产生明显的拉曼散射强度,目前还未见有关溶解无机碳拉曼光谱定量分析的报道.为突破这一局限,本研究探索了一种碱化辅助的拉曼定量分析方法,以海水DIC中拉曼活性最低、占比例最大的HCO3-为研究对象进行了可行性实验研究.通过碱化处理(100mL样品中添加NaOH试剂15mg)将HCO3-转化为拉曼活性更强的CO32-,有效提高了拉曼光谱系统对HCO3-的检出限(<3mmol/L).定量分析使用内标定法,选取水在~1635cm-1附近的O—H弯曲振动谱带作为标定物.实验结果显示,该方法对与海水中浓度相当的低浓度HCO3-溶液的定量分析具有良好的精度(相对误差<6.5%).     

环境投资的定量考核探讨

环境投资占国民生产总值的比例是国际上普遍采用的衡量和评价各国环境与经济持续发展程度的重要指标，为控制我国日趋严重的环境形势，应加强对考核指标的研究，拓宽筹集资金的渠道，扩大环境投资的比例。     

水路危险品运输风险定量分析与评价探讨

围绕危险化学品水路运输风险，参照国外危险货物运输的定量分析方法以及水路危险货物运输现状，在固定场所定量风险评价的基础上，分析运输过程的安全性，初步探讨了对于危险化学品水路运输进行风险定量分析的基本步骤，风险的两种表述方式和定量评价标准，将危险控制在可接受范围内。     

海上风机可靠性评估

依据国内外相关可靠性设计标准以及IEC 61400系列风力发电机组开发标准,结合XE-5 MW海上风机设计开发,建立了整套的海上风力发电机组可靠性设计评估流程,制定了适用于海上风力发电机组工程研发的可靠性建模、可靠性分配、可靠性预计、FMECA和FTA的分析方法,并以上述可靠性设计评估流程和方法对XE-5 MW海上风机开展了可靠性定性和定量评估。     

Quantitative analysis of CO2 embodiment in international trade: An overview of emerging literatures

The increasing volume of CO₂ embodiment in international trade adds a layer of complexity to environmental policies and has raised arguments on the traditional production based responsibility for CO₂ emissions. In order to help understand the quantity of CO₂ embodiment in trade and its policy implications, this paper gives observations to recently emerging literatures that quantitatively discuss CO₂ embodiment in trade. The analytical approaches share the principle of using input and output modeling but vary dramatically in study boundary and estimation accuracy. The calculations can be roughly categorized into three types: direct quantification of CO₂ embodiments in multiregional trade, direct quantification of CO₂ embodiment in bilateral trade, and indirect analysis by comparing the scenarios with or without trade. The practical estimations strongly rely on trade partner selection and data availability. An obvious imbalance of net CO₂ embodiment in the commodity trade between major developed countries and developing economies as a whole was confirmed by these literatures. Carbon taxes and other possible limitations on CO₂ emissions have been addressed. The consistency across the calculations could be enhanced by systematic analyses in more detail to convince the international community to take binding commitments for the reduction of global CO₂ emissions.     

机械系统的风险概率与经济性安全评价方法研究与应用

针对机械事故频发,为预防和控制事故,依据安全评价发展方向,结合安全系统工程、模糊可靠性理论、人因可靠性技术和安全经济学,从人-机-环3方面分析风险评价因素,建立符合客观实际的风险评价模型,提出包括人为因素、机械设备和环境在内的基本事件失效概率估算方法;以安全经济学的角度将事故严重度量化为风险经济损失,根据每个风险因素的风险概率和风险经济损失来选择风险评价项目,通过检查评价项目状况,最终得出系统风险度,从而形成关于机械系统的定量风险概率与经济性安全评价方法。并给出起重机大车运行机构的工程示例,验证该方法的正确性和可行性。     

企业安全氛围测评的实证研究

安全氛围是影响企业安全生产的重要因素,首先在理论分析的基础上明确安全氛围的定义及其包含的主要研究内容,提出安全氛围构成的关键元素,开发测评工具,并构建基于主成分分析法和四分象限图分析法的测评数据分析模型。采用主成分分析法具体描述各关键元素对企业安全氛围的影响度值;应用四分象限图分析法进一步分析,根据元素的影响度值将元素划分至"优势区"、"优先改进区"、"深入改进区"和"维持优势区"4个区域,为企业改进安全氛围提供更为具体直观的参考。提出的测评工具及测评数据的定量分析模型在一定程度上克服定性评价的不足,可以在不同类型的企业应用。