电力突发事件综合风险定量分析技术研究

电力突发事件风险分析对电力安全运行至关重要。为进一步降低电力突发事件对电网正常运行带来的影响,本文根据近年来电力行业发生的大量突发事件相关数据,提取典型电力突发事件类型及关键要素,运用风险定量分析法,建立多要素电力典型突发事件综合风险计算模型。结果表明:该方法不仅得到了电力行业多种典型突发事件的综合风险量化分值,而且可以最终以图表的形式直观地反应出多种典型突发事件对电力安全运行的影响程度,为预防电力突发事件以及提升电力应急处置能力提供了一种新途径。     

Using internet search behavior to assess public awareness of protected wetlands

Improving public awareness of protected wetlands facilitates sustainable wetland management, which depends on public participation. One way of gauging public interest is by tracking Internet search behavior (ISB). We assessed public awareness of issues related to protected wetland areas (PWAs) in South Korea by examining the frequencies of specific queries (PWAs, Ramsar, Upo wetland, Sunchon Bay, etc.) using relative search volumes (RSVs) obtained from an Internet search engine. RSV shows how many times a search term is used relative to a second search term during a specific period. Public awareness of PWAs changed from 2007 to 2013. Initially the majority of Internet searches were related to the most well‐known tidal and inland wetlands Sunchon Bay and Upo wetlands, which are the largest existing wetlands in Korea with the greatest historical exposure. Public awareness, as reflected in RSVs, of wetlands increased significantly following PWA designation for the wetlands in 2008, which followed the Ramsar 10th Conference of Contracting Parties to the Convention on Wetlands (COP10) meeting. Public interest was strongly correlated to the number of news articles in the popular media, as evidenced by the increase in Internet searches for specific wetlands and words associated with specific wetlands. Correspondingly, the number of visitors to specific wetlands increased. To increase public interest in wetlands, wetland aspects that enhance wetland conservation should be promoted by the government and enhanced via public education. Our approach can be used to gauge public awareness and participation in a wide range of conservation efforts.     

Adaptive capacity and climate change: the role of community opinion leaders

The contribution of the informal community sector to the development of collective response strategies to socioecological change is not well researched. In this article, we examine the role of community opinion leaders in developing and mobilising stocks of adaptive capacity. In so doing, we reveal a largely unexplored mechanism for building on latent social capital and associated networks that have the potential to transcend local-scale efforts – an enduring question in climate change adaptation and other cross-scalar sustainability issues. Participants drawn from diverse spheres of community activity in the Sunshine Coast, Australia, were interviewed about their strategies for influencing their community objectives and the degree to which they have engaged with responding to climate change. The results show community opinion leaders to be politically engaged through rich bridging connections with other community organisations, and vertically with policy-makers at local, state, national and international levels. Despite this latent potential, the majority of community opinion leaders interviewed were not strategically engaged with responding to climate change. This finding suggests that more work is needed to connect networks knowledgeable about projected climate change impacts with local networks of community opinion leaders. Attention to the type of community-based strategies considered effective and appropriate by community opinion leaders and their organisations also suggests avenues for policy-makers to facilitate community engagement in responding to climate change across sectors likely to be affected by its impacts. Opportunities to extend understanding of adaptive capacity within the community sector through further research are also suggested.     

分子电性距离矢量预测多氯萘的正辛醇/空气分配系数

应用分子电性距离矢量(MEDV)对多氯萘(PCNs)的76种同系物进行结构表征,通过多元线性回归方法建立了PCNs的正辛醇/空气分配系数(lgKoA)与MEDV之间的定量结构一性质关系(QSPR),该模型具有显著的相关性(n=24,R=0.997,SD=0.088,F=417.546).采用逐步回归的方法(SMR)从原...     

化工园区重大事故风险分析

目前我国对化工园区风险分析的理论研究尚处于起步阶段.针对化工园区这一特殊区域,从整体角度出发,分析研究了化工园区内多个重大事故风险源造成的区域风险,并进行了实例应用.综合考虑多个重大事故风险源产生的风险,分析了其产生风险的叠加效应,绘制出化工园区的个人风险等值线;同时根据ALARP(合理可接受风险水平)准则对化工园区的...     

石油化工储存装置定量风险评价方法研究

提出通过基础失效概率数据库、事故树分析、事件树分析3种方式来确定重大事故的发生概率.阐述了外界气象条件和人员分布情况对风险的影响和确定方法,给出了利用区域网格方式计算装置在平面某点的个人风险叠加模型和社会风险计算方法.最后,研制开发了石油化工储存装置定量风险评价软件,利用该软件计算了某化工厂4个储存装置所产生的个人风险...     

钢渣堆场扬尘定量计算与控制措施分析

通过对天津钢铁集团有限公司钢渣加工处理过程及钢渣堆场进行现状监测及建模分析,得出不同条 件下钢渣加工及堆存的实际扬尘量,并提出切实有效的环境管理控制措施,为冶金企业在走可持续发展道路过程中降低污染排放、规避环境风险提供了理论依据和技术支撑.     

洋河水库微囊藻毒素及产毒株种群丰度的时空分布特征

在洋河水库设置6个采样点,于2015年5—10月采集水样,利用高效液相色谱测定了微囊藻毒素(MC-LR、MC-RR、MC-YR)的浓度,并采用基于mcy A和mcy B基因的荧光定量PCR技术检测产毒蓝藻与产毒微囊藻种群.同时,分析了水体中微囊藻毒素浓度和组成的时空分布特征,以及产毒蓝藻与产毒微囊藻丰度的动态变化.结果表明,洋河水库微囊藻毒素(Microcystins,MCs)浓度范围为0.24~10.99μg·L~(-1);水体中产毒蓝藻占总蓝藻种群丰度的7%~55%,产毒微囊藻占总微囊藻种群丰度的8%~59%,是主要的产毒蓝藻;微囊藻毒素浓度与产毒株种群丰度时空分布特征一致,季节变化规律为夏季秋季春季,空间分布表现为西洋河口附近区域高于东洋河口附近区域;而微囊藻毒素组成无显著时空差异,均以MC-RR和MC-LR 2种亚型为主.Pearson相关分析显示,产毒微囊藻种群丰度及其比例是影响微囊藻毒素浓度变化的主要因素,且其与总磷和叶绿素a浓度呈显著正相关(p0.01).     

浅谈宣威市“十一五城考”工作

根据宣威市“十一五”期间环境综合整治定量考核的成绩及排名,分析宣威市城市环境综合整治考核存在的问题,提出提高宣威市城市环境质量综合定量考核排名的建议。     

生态规划实施绩效的定量评价方法探讨

采用一票否决与加权结合的综合指数法,可以定量评价生态规划实施绩效,对规划中各指标近期实施情况进行综合评价;将生态建设指标分为若干类并将同类指标的评价值绘在一张雷达图中,可以对生态规划中远期目标的可达性进行评估。以江苏省句容市为例,参照考核目标和规划目标算出近期每年生态建设的绩效综合评价指数;再参照中远期规划目标算出中远期各项指标的评价值,并通过雷达图展示同类指标的可达性。结果表明,经四年实施,到2010年,句容已达到生态市建设考核目标的各项要求,但尚未完全达到规划目标要求;根据定量评价结果,进一步明确了句容下一步实施生态规划的重点所在。