基于灰色理论的特种设备安全事故预测研究

应用灰色理论,借助于EXCEL及MATLAB软件工具,并以我国近年实际数据为基础,对我国“十二五”期间特种设备安全事故的绝对死亡人数和万台设备死亡人数进行了预测.结果表明,基于灰色理论的特种设备事故的死亡人数和万台设备死亡人数的模拟值和真实值较吻合,预测模型精度检验为好；预测指标可为特种设备安全政策制订和科学监管决策提供依据及参考.     

基于灰色关联服役构件的可靠度评估研究

为获取服役构件的待定可靠指标以便为决策服务,用共维条件下排序方法通过影响因素的映射进而评估待定指标。采用通过分析服役受弯构件的性能来确定其可靠度影响因素,进而根据层次递阶原理建立可靠度评价指标体系。然后利用可变模糊集理论中模糊量化理论(FQT)的概念确定各影响因素的权重,再根据权重结果利用灰色关联分析法(GRA)计算构件的可靠指标的相对顺序,最后得到待定构件的可靠指标范围。实例研究结果表明,将FQT理论和GRA有机结合,能够有效刻画影响因素的互交性、判断准则的模糊性及所获取相关信息不完备的灰色性等特点,并且评估结果与实际情况吻合。     

用分子连接指数研究氯代芳香族化合物对绿藻的毒性及QSAR分析

本文测定了一批氯代芳香族化合物对羊角月牙藻的急性毒性,运用分子连接性指数分析了化合物结构与其毒性之间的定量关系,并用逐一抽取法检验比较了模型的稳健性.     

Sorption of carbamazepine, 17α-ethinylestradiol, iopromide and trimethoprim to biomass involves interactions with exocellular polymeric substances

The sorption of carbamazepine (CBZ), iopromide (IOP), trimethoprim (TMP) and 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2) was evaluated using four biomass types (pure ammonia oxidizing bacterial culture, two heterotrophic enrichment cultures with varying levels of oxygenase activity, and a full-scale nitrifying activated sludge (NAS) culture). CBZ and IOP did not sorb to the four biomass types. EE2 did not sorb to the pure culture but sorbed significantly to the heterotrophic cultures and NAS. TMP sorbed to the heterotrophic cultures and NAS, and was not evaluated for the pure culture. Three floc characteristics (hydrophobicity, median particle size, organic matter content) correlated moderately well with the EE2 organic matter sorption coefficient (K_OM,EE2). Zeta potential did not correlate well with K_OM,EE2 but did with K_OM,TMP, indicating that TMP sorption is more influenced by electrostatic factors than EE2. Once divalent cation-linked exocellular polymeric substances (EPS) were removed from flocs, EE2 and TMP sorption to the non-EPS (cellular) fraction decreased by approximately 50%. The correlation between K_OM,EE2 for the non-EPS cellular fraction deteriorated while the correlation between K_OM,TMP improved. EE2 seemed to sorb more strongly to EPS protein whereas TMP sorbed equally to polysaccharide and protein EPS. Attempts to develop predictive models were not successful. Pharmaceuticals that sorbed to biomass samples underwent biodegradation whereas those that did not sorb were not biodegraded, suggesting a relationship between sorption and pharmaceutical biotransformation.     

Structure-activity relationships of larvicidal monoterpenes and derivatives against Aedes aegypti Linn

In the search for larvicidal compounds against Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae), a collection of monoterpenes were selected and evaluated. R- and S-limonene exhibited the highest larvicidal potency (LC₅₀ = 27 and 30 ppm, respectively), followed by γ-terpinene (LC₅₀ = 56 ppm) and RS-carvone (LC₅₀ = 118 ppm). Structural characteristics which may contribute to the understanding of the larvicidal activity of monoterpenes were empirically identified. The presence of heteroatoms in the basic hydrocarbon structure decreases larvicidal potency. Conjugated and exo double bonds appear to increase larvicidal potency. Replacement of double bonds by more reactive epoxides decreases the larvicidal potency. The presence of hydroxyls in the cyclic structure resulted in decreased potency, probably due to increased polarity indicanting that lipophilicity seems to play an important role in increasing the larvicidal potency in this set of compounds.     

酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的定量结构-活性相关研究

测定了酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的logIC50值,以量子化学参数为自变量,应用偏最小二乘法（PLS）,建立了酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的定量结构-活性相关（QSAR）模型。模型所提取的PLS主成分所能解释的因变量总方差的比例Qc2um为0.820,表明模型具有较好的稳定性和预测能力。模型的结果表明,影响酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的主要因素是logkow、CCR和Ehomo,酚类化合物对硝化颗粒污泥活性抑制的logIC50随着分子logkow的增大而减小,随着Ehomo和CCR的增大而增大。     

涨渡湖湿地生态旅游资源评价及发展态势分析

采用层次分析法对涨渡湖湿地生态旅游开发条件进行了分析.资源定量评价的结果显示,湿地旅游资源价值在湿地生态旅游资源综合评价中的权重最大,表明保护和营造旅游资源的重要性.通过SWOT分析,显示涨渡湖湿地生态旅游开发具有一定优势,虽然在开发过程中存在一定制约因素,但可通过湿地生态旅游的科学规划和管理,在保护利用的基础上发挥湖泊湿地的生态旅游资源优势,将资源优势转变为经济优势,加快武汉市湖区旅游经济的发展.     

对一起烧山案法律定性的看法

由一起烧山案引入,详细地分析了失火罪、破坏生产经营罪、重大责任事故罪这三种在林业生产中经常会涉及的犯罪的四个构成要件,并比较了它们的异同,对基层执法人员的实际工作具有一定的借鉴作用。     

基于计量经济学理论对安全生产工作认识（二）

安全生产监管行为必然发生成本支出,包括立法与执法成本、对企业监管行为带来的社会成本和政府干预行为产生的寻租成本等,其成本与代价之高实际难以估量。 安全生产监察执法策略,既要遵循法治的严肃性,也必须考虑到企业和公众,尤其是约束对象的反映,还要考量执行难度和行政资源支出,并能使多数人从执法和守法中受益,否则会严重影响其执行力,甚至可能成为一纸空文。置信度较低的执法活动,不但效果有限,而且可能损害政府的公信力,使“政府失灵”。 政府经常运用权力强化各类安全生产行政审批,这在加大了干预力度同时,为寻租活动创造了机会,为腐败提供了土壤,可能产生新的风险,行政许可对安全监管工作是双刃剑。 安全生产工作中,政府与企业之间呈现博弈关系。无论政府和公众,还是企业都不愿见到发生伤亡事故,安全监管部门应因势利导,充分考虑到企业利益与立场,运用灵活性的管理策略,首先要使大多数企业都能达到法规要求,其次让少数条件较差或不主动守法企业也能感到压力,甚至受到处罚,转而被迫加大投入,达到安全生产法规要求,逐渐实现“纳什均衡”,使安全生产监管成本与效益达到一种“帕累托最优”。 市场经济条件下,安全生产监管应设计为一种激励相容机制,使每个参与方在追求各自利益的同时,也能达到总体设定目标。政府安全监管主要角色之一是指导各类安全生产资源有效配置,这些激励机制包括：要求企业建立安全承诺机制;基于分离均衡机制对企业实施分级监管;在事故分析中,参照“汉德法则”,理性判定事故责任,激发企业安全生产投入的主动意识和守法自觉性等。 对安全生产监管部门建立全过程的绩效评估机制,重视安全监管工作的过程?     

Philopatry, male presence and grooming reciprocation among female primates: a comparative perspective

Competition for food and a safe location in a group are considered to be the main determinants of variation in social relationships among female primates. The effect of the presence of males is usually overlooked, however. Here we put forward two hypotheses connecting the (relative) number of males in a group, a statistic measuring the strength of positive relationships among females (the degree of reciprocity of grooming) and female residence. Under the first hypothesis, we assumed that philopatric females suffer especially from competition for males. Because females of these species are restrained to their native group and thus do not move to groups where better conditions (i.e. more males) prevail, a higher socionomic sex ratio would imply reduced competition and this should be reflected in better relationships among females (i.e. in a higher degree of reciprocation). The second hypothesis is based on the contention of Wrangham (1987) that groups with more males are better able to defend large food sources: in these groups female relationships would suffer less from within-group competition for food. We therefore also expected a positive correlation between the absolute number of males and grooming reciprocation. To test the hypotheses, matrices of grooming interactions were collected by going through the primatological literature. For ten female-resident and four female-transfer primate species, the degree of grooming reciprocation was quantified using a specially adapted matrix statistic. The results favoured the first (competition for males) hypothesis. The degree of grooming reciprocation among females was positively correlated with socionomic sex ratio, but neither with group size nor with the absolute number of males. Correlations between the degree of reciprocity and sex ratio were confirmed at three levels: within the same group at different points in time, between groups of the same species, and between species. In addition, the degree of reciprocation increased with sex ratio more strongly in typical single/variable male than in multi-male species. This we interpreted as a direct consequence of the lower social availability of males for females in multi-male groups than single-male groups. In turn, this effect may be due to males competing for females in multi-male groups. Received: 28 May 1997 / Accepted after revision: 9 November 1997