基于QSPR方法的脂肪醇化合物闪点预测

为提高脂肪醇化合物闪点预测精度,提出基于定量结构-性质关系(QSPR)原理的脂肪醇化合物闪点预测方法。应用Dragon软件计算出91种脂肪醇的分子描述符,利用遗传函数算法(GFA)从1 481个描述符中筛选出3个与脂肪醇闪点关系最密切的分子描述符。分别用多元线性回归(MLR)方法和支持向量机(SVM)方法进行建模,并采用内部验证和外部检验的方式对模型的拟合度、预测性等性能进行验证。结果表明:预测集的MLR方法和SVM方法的平均绝对误差(AAE)分别为2.870 K和2.706 K;均方根误差(RMSE)为3.451 K和3.371 K。SVM模型在精度上略优于MLR模型,而MLR模型更为简单和方便。     

安全科学原理及其结构体系研究

从安全科学学的高度和大安全的视角,论述5类安全现象、安全规律和安全科学及其对应关系。提出了由安全生命科学原理、安全自然科学原理、安全技术科学原理、安全社会科学原理和安全系统科学原理5大一级安全科学原理和25条二级安全科学原理组成的安全科学原理体系。分别构建了安全科学原理的"人形"结构和"轮形"结构。阐述各级安全科学原理在"人形"结构和"轮形"结构中的地位、联系、协同、促进与发展作用。研究结果得出了大安全背景下的一个安全科学原理新体系。     

电气火灾一次短路熔痕金相组织特征参数定量分析

电气火灾一次短路熔痕鉴别和判定对分析火灾原因和事故认定至关重要,而目前金相分析方法目前处于经验和半经验水平,缺乏定量分析手段.本文开展不同电流条件下(100A至300A,间隔为20A)铜导线一次短路模拟实验,制作相应短路熔痕金相图谱.同时引入描述金相组织特征参数,基于Image - ProPlus应用数字图像处理技术提取图谱的金相组织特征参数量化指标,讨论金相组织晶粒和孔洞尺寸变化的特点,实现金相微观组织特征参数和电流之间的关系数据对比分析,探讨一次短路熔痕金相组织的量化判据和变化规律.     

高硫炼油装置硫化氢泄漏场景集定量分析

随机规划方法已成为解决不确定条件下高硫炼油装置气体检测报警仪布置优化问题的重要途径,而构建接近真实情况的泄漏场景集则是实现随机规划的基础。目前,有毒气体泄漏场景集构建方面的研究鲜有报道,且传统以典型泄漏场景为代表的做法未能体现真实风险。为此给出一种融合泄漏概率和风场联合分布概率的定量构建硫化氢泄漏场景集的方法,使场景集包括重要泄漏场景并运用DNV的LEAK软件和历史气象数据定量预测场景的实现概率,为实现后续的气体泄漏检测报警仪布置随机规划提供技术支持。并以某柴油加氢装置为例,定量构建其硫化氢泄漏场景集,为后续的气体检测报警仪布置优化及其它基于定量风险分析的控制决策提供支持。     

煤矿井下不同作业场所的职业健康风险定量评价

为评估煤矿井下工人面临的职业健康风险,采用特征化分析和货币化法,提出煤矿井下不同作业场所职业健康风险的定量评价方法。对井下主要作业场所进行划分,收集各作业场所粉尘、噪声和热环境的清单数据,进行特征化分析,将粉尘、噪声和热环境对工人的健康风险影响量化,最后进行货币化,使评价结果赋予经济意义。结果表明:平煤某矿的职业健康风险为715.47万元,主要作业场所职业健康风险由大到小依次为回采、掘进、煤仓口、锚喷作业点和胶带运输转载,评价结果可为煤矿职业健康管理提供更全面的决策依据。     

基于投影寻踪聚类的油气管道失效可能性评价

为保障油气管道运行安全,将投影寻踪聚类的方法引入油气管道失效可能性评价中,从系统理论的角度将油气管道失效分为致灾因子危险性、承灾体的脆弱性和应对能力脆弱性3个子系统,据此建立油气管道失效可能性评估指标体系,然后基于投影寻踪聚类的失效可能性评价模型,对油气管道失效可能性进行量化分析,从而确定其失效可能性等级。实例分析表明,所建立的失效可能性评价模型能对油气管道失效可能性进行评价,可为管道的风险管理提供决策依据。     

Trade-Offs between Species Conservation and the Size of Marine Protected Areas

Abstract:  Moving from single-species- to ecosystem-based management requires an understanding of how community-level attributes such as diversity change with area. We used survey data from bottom trawls to examine spatial patterns of species richness in U.S. Pacific coastal fishes. Specifically, we generated and compared species–area relationships (SARs) for species classified into several groups on the basis of maximum body size, trophic level, diet, maximum depth, geographic affinity, and taxonomic order. Because SARs among groups were not parallel and z values varied significantly for several groups, groups of species were under- or overrepresented (depending on the size of the area) relative to their proportions in the entire community (i.e., entire U.S. Pacific coast). In this way, differences in SARs help demonstrate trade-offs between species representation and coastal area and suggest strategies (such as targeting the protection of habitats and locations where a particular species or groups of species are maximized) that may minimize the size of marine protected areas (MPAs) but protect diversity at the level of the community and functional group.     

湖南省资源结构及其产业对策

资源是区域经济发展的基础，资源结构是区域产业结构赖以形成的重要条件。区域产业是经济发展的载体，它不仅支持着区域的增长，而且在很大程度上决策着经济增长的能力与潜力。据此，在分析湖南省资源及产业结构优化标准的基础上，提出了充分与合理利用资源的产业对策建议。     

The Tribal Environment: Solid Waste in Indian Country

The issue of solid waste management in Indian country is multidimensional in scope because it affects more than just regulatory concerns. There are more than 550 federally recognized Alaska Native and American Indian Tribes in the United States. Tribes are sovereign nations that have a special relationship to the federal government and a unique legal status. The environmental problems faced by tribes are many, and it is only fair that tribes, as sovereigns, specify the levels of protection on their lands. The one-size-fits-all regulatory approach to environmental problems and solid waste management in particular does not work and often leads to conflict between tribes and the federal and state governments. Inherent tensions also exist between tribes and various levels of government concerning jurisdiction of lands and managing solid waste. These intergovernmental relationships are often complex and present unique challenges to all. More research needs to be done on targeting resources to meet the capacity-building needs of tribes, as well as the overall environmental management needs of Indian country under the federal trust obligation. Successful intergovernmental relationships can be fostered through partnership arrangements between tribes and federal, state, and local governments. In the area of solid waste such partnerships have worked. It requires that all levels of government deal with tribes with careful consideration of their cultural, historic, and socioeconomic aspects, which are often intertwined.     

社会发展综合实验区的评估理论和方法

本文根据我国社会发展综合实验区建设实际，以可持续发展思想为指导，建立了社会发展综合实验区的评估理论、方法和指标体系。