基于主成分分析法和AHP-GEM模型的区域新增建设用地指标合理配置——-以江苏省为例

为从理论上科学合理地配置各子区域的新增建设用地指标, 以江苏省为例, 初步选取了影响 区域新增建设用地合理配置的13 项指标, 为避免指标间的多重共线性, 应用主成分分析法将这些 指标综合归并为人口资源、经济社会、城镇发展3 个综合因子。在此基础上, 采用AHP-GEM模型对 江苏省的新增建设用地指标进行了理论上的配置, 结果表明: 江苏省新增建设用地指标分配值可以 分为4 个层次: ①苏州、无锡和南京, 理论上所应分配的新增建设用地面积占全省总量的比例均大 于10%, 其中, 苏州最多, 为18.80%, 无锡、南京次之, 分别为16.78%和11.20%; ②南通和常州, 分 别为7.93%和7.81%, 其比例在7.5%至8%之间; ③扬州、镇江、盐城、泰州和徐州, 分别为6.03%、 5.91%、5.51%、5.33%和5.00%, 其比例占全省的5.5%左右; ④淮安、连云港和宿迁, 分别为3.65%、 3.03%和3.01%, 其比例在3%左右。通过比较, 理论上计算的结果与实际分配情况大致吻合。     

Efficient allocation of coal de-capacity quota among Chinese provinces: a zero-sum gains data envelopment model

ABSTRACT

An efficient coal de-capacity quota allocation scheme is key for accelerating China’s coal supply-side structure reform. This paper allocates the coal de-capacity quota from the perspective of efficiency to seek the optimal capacity allocation in each Chinese province. First, we estimate the coal capacity of 24 coal-producing provinces based on boundary production function model. According to the actual coal overcapacity in each province, we initially allocate the coal de-capacity quota of reducing 0.8 billion tons among them. Then, we optimize the initial allocation plan by using the zero-sum gains data envelopment model (ZSG-DEA) considering backward coal capacity, coal economic output, and coal resource endowment of each province. The results indicate that: First, there is coal overcapacity all over China, and there are obvious differences among the provinces. Second, the optimal allocation results show that the large coal producing provinces, including Shanxi, Inter Mongolia, Shaanxi, etc., need to undertake most of the coal de-capacity tasks, while the old coal producing provinces in northeast and west China should undertake a heavier burden of coal de-capacity. Third, the “one-size fits-all” approach burdens the small coal producing provinces with reducing coal capacity, leading to a general low enthusiasm for coal de-capacity in these regions.     

干旱缺水地区缓解水危机的途径: 水资源需求管理的政策效应

水资源短缺是制约干旱区经济发展的瓶颈因素,缓解水资源供需矛盾必须引入水资源需求管理政策。基于市场机制的价格调整和基于行政管理的数量控制是水资源需求管理的两种重要手段。论文基于分布式水资源-经济模型,在用水需求零增长、用水结构升级调整的情景下,研究了水价调整和水量控制在抑制农业用水需求中的政策效应。结果表明,因现行灌溉水价过低,农户对水价上涨不敏感,水量控制比水价调整更加有效。如果要达到相同的节水效果,水价调整政策下农户收入损失比水量控制要更大。水价调整政策下农户收入损失由于成本上涨和作物结构转换导致,水量控制政策下农户收入损失主要是作物种植规模压缩所致,两种政策均需考虑一定的利益补偿。水价调整和水量控制都会导致种植结构转换,但对区域粮食安全影响不大,对经济作物的影响较大,水价上涨会减少用水量多的作物种植,水量控制会使作物种植结构由单方水效益低的作物转向单方水效益高的作物。     

排污权交易的经济优化机制研究

利用经济学原理，分析了环境污染产生的原因和经济学对策，对排污权交易理论和市场优化机制进行了研究，并说明我国建立排污权交易市场的可行性。     

Fishing quota markets

In 1986, New Zealand responded to the open-access problem by establishing the world's largest individual transferable quota (ITQ) system. Using a 15-year panel dataset from New Zealand that covers 33 species and more than 150 markets for fishing quotas, we assess trends in market activity, price dispersion, and the fundamentals determining quota prices. We find that market activity is sufficiently high in the economically important markets and that price dispersion has decreased. We also find evidence of economically rational behavior through the relationship between quota lease and sale prices and fishing output and input prices, ecological variability, and market interest rates. Controlling for these factors, our results show a greater increase in quota prices for fish stocks that faced significant reductions, consistent with increased profitability due to rationalization. Overall, this suggests that these markets are operating reasonably well, implying that ITQs can be effective instruments for efficient fisheries management.     

山东各地市经济发展环境评价研究

为评价山东各地市的经济发展环境。采用《2003山东统计年鉴》中的数据及专家打分资料进行因子分析，得出由地市经济运行环境、地市社会发展环境、地市制度政策环境、地市自然环境和地市资源环境五部分构成的地市经济发展环境评价指标体系。并根据评价得分。将山东各地市划分为3个梯度：(1)青岛、济南得分在0．7以上，为第一梯度，有良好的地市经济发展环境；(2)淄博、东营、烟台、威海、潍坊得分在0分以上。为第二梯度，经济发展环境较好；(3)其他地市为第三梯度。经济发展环境较差。文章最后分别对各梯度地市提出改善经济发展环境的策略。     

Urban Water Resources Quota Management: The Core Strategy for Water Demand Management in China

Since China has the largest population in the world, the available water resources per capita in China are very limited. With the rapid economic development that is currently occurring, the shortage of water resources at the national level has become extremely critical. How to solve the problems due to water scarcity and water pollution has received increasing attention from the Chinese government and various communities. In order to provide a sustainable development environment for 1.6 billion people in the future, the whole country has started to reform urban water resources management systems in terms of related policies, regulations, methodologies, and technologies focusing on improving the efficiency and effectiveness in water use. Urban water quota management has now become a core strategy in developing a water resources governance model for water demand management aiming at establishing a water-saving society. This paper introduces the main stages and the processes of implementing water quota management in China, analyzes the basic principles, and expounds the elements, information foundation, core module and operational model of the urban water quota management system. It has been demonstrated that urban water quota management has made some remarkable contribution not only in transforming the pattern of water mode and strengthening water management enforcement but also in integrating various management methods in saving water and preventing pollution.     

集体建设用地指标市场化交易预警研究

对集体建设用地指标市场化交易进行预警研究可以更好地为其入市提供科学的监督和管控。本文以集体建设用地指标市场化交易的结果征兆信息建立其警兆值的评测指标体系;运用基于主成分分析的"惩罚性"变权法确定权重,计算综合模拟指数划分警界区间、确定警度;结合GM(1,1)模型进行警度预测,并以江苏省新沂市为例进行了实证测算。研究结果表明:1采用景气信号灯来反映警度,2007-2008年新沂市的集体建设用地指标市场交易的警兆值为-0.041和0.184,处于紫色预警;2009年警兆值为0.238,处于蓝色预警;2010年警兆值上升到0.649,处于绿色预警;2011-2013年警兆值从0.876提高至0.920,处于红色预警状态。2对指标体系进行主成分分析确定基础权重,得到建设用地转耕地面积(0.08)、农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费(0.084)、地均财政收入(0.083)等的基础权重明显大于其他指标,是制约预警警度的重要因素。3通过"惩罚性"变权研究,得知农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费的变权权重值有波动下降趋势,说明该指标的重要性递减;第一产业单位面积产值、新型农村合作医疗覆盖率、农村居民基本养老保险参保率的变权权重值有波动上升趋势,说明这些指标的重要性在不断加强。42014-2016年新沂市集体建设用地指标市场交易的预测警兆值是1.566,1.711和2.154,均是红色预警,表明集体建设用地指标交易持续高热。结论与建议:预警结果能为监测集体建设用地指标市场交易情况提供依据,对上述重要因素进行科学合理的管控将有利于降低指标市场交易的警度,以促进集体建设用地入市的持续健康发展。     

碳排放权配额管理体系的比较和借鉴

在地方性试点的基础上,我国已在电力行业启动全国性碳排放权交易市场建设。配额管理不仅直接影响参与者的经济利益,还决定着碳排放权交易机制能否成功建立和持续运行。从配额总量设定、地区和企业层面的配额分配、配额的调控和灵活管理机制等角度总结比较了各国碳排放权配额管理制度设计的经验教训,并从五个方面提出了对我国全国性碳交易市场建设的启示。     

大同市二氧化硫初始排污权分配研究

大同市是国家大气污染防治重点城市之一和山西省SO2排污交易试点城市。初始排污权分配是推动该市SO2排污权交易政策实施的关键。针对大同市大气SO2污染排放特征和总量控制目标,提出了金字塔形的初始排污权逐级分配模式。进而选择兼顾环境容量和环境质量目标的初始排污权分配模型,完成了全市各总量子控制区和主要污染行业两个级别的初始排污权分配,并据此建议了相关排污权交易方式。