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291.
In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market.
In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural
model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences,
especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s
Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits
in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from
that of smaller ones.
This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance
& Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.” 相似文献
292.
在现行的性能化防火设计中,通常将火灾发展与人员疏散两个过程分开考虑,从而忽略了火场环境对人员疏散过程的实时作用。该方法与实际情况有很大差异。笔者借助火灾模拟程序CFAST和人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS,以某地铁车站为例,进行了火场环境实时作用下的人群疏散仿真研究。结果表明,火场环境会降低人群的判断和活动能力,延长疏散时间并产生其他的不利后果。因此,在防火设计中考虑火场环境对人群疏散的实时影响是十分必要的。 相似文献
293.
294.
Helen M. de la Maza Jerry O. Wolff Amber Lindsey 《Behavioral ecology and sociobiology》1999,45(2):107-113
A widely accepted paradigm in mammalian behavioral biology is that exposure to unfamiliar males causes pregnancy disruption
in female rodents (commonly known as the Bruce effect). This behavioral phenomenon has been demonstrated in the laboratory
with at least 12 species of rodents, primarily within the genus Microtus, and is supposedly an adaptation that provides male perpetrators with reproductive access to females, and functions, for
females, as a counterstrategy to infanticide. However, neither the Bruce effect nor its adaptive significance have been tested
experimentally in the field. In a controlled field study, we exposed reproducing female gray-tailed voles (Microtus canicaudus) to treatments in which males were removed and replaced by either unfamiliar males or females, and found no significant differences
in intervals between parturitions, number of pregnancies, and juvenile recruitment among the treatment and control animals.
Thus, we conclude that neither the Bruce effect nor infanticide occurred differentially as a consequence of the treatments
in gray-tailed voles. Multimale mating to confuse paternity, and postpartum estrus resulting in simultaneous pregnancy and
lactation may deter infanticide and functionally negate any benefits of pregnancy disruption in gray-tailed voles and perhaps
other murid rodents with similar mating systems. In light of our results, we recommend field verification for other species
of murid rodents that exhibit the Bruce effect in the laboratory before the results are applied to evolutionary theory.
Received: 12 May 1998 / Accepted after revision: 6 September 1998 相似文献
295.
296.
店员在超市安全疏散中的作用研究 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
杨洪瑞 《中国安全科学学报》2008,18(7)
对某超市安全疏散演习资料进行分析,研究超市店员在火灾疏散中的行为对顾客的影响。通过观看疏散录像,分析疏散之后所作的问卷调查,采用SPSS统计分析软件分析不同位置店员在听到火灾警报后的反应。研究发现:店员的疏散前准备时间随他们所处的位置而不同,也因在不同岗位的店员所承担的责任不同。由于经过消防训练和对环境比较熟悉,店员的疏散速度明显快于顾客的疏散速度。在整个疏散过程中,大约80%的店员为顾客安全疏散提供帮助,对顾客及时撤离产生直接的有益影响。一些骨干型的店员在疏散中发挥了重要作用。对商店消防培训和疏散预案的制定提出建议。应根据店员岗位设置不同培训内容,并注重培训骨干消防员;对店员行为进行干预;制定性能化的疏散预案等。 相似文献
297.
Adaptive governance to typhoon disasters for coastal sustainability: A case study in Guangdong,China
Globally, more people and assets are concentrated on the limited coastal plains where they are exposed to frequent disasters, such as typhoons, rainstorms and floods that often result in tremendous casualties and economic losses. Based on the causal analysis of the historical typhoon cases in the Guangdong Province of China, this study indicates that structural measures alone are not sufficient to resist and offset the impacts caused by typhoon disasters. Additionally, structural measures are unsustainable due to their high investment and low security. Adaptive governance, which uses non-structural measures and resilience building, is a feasible and cost-effective strategy for responding to the cascading effects of typhoon disasters. Multi-stakeholder participation and vertical–horizontal coordination are essential for providing adaptive governance to typhoon disasters. A risk-sharing model was put forward by bringing together the government, insurance companies and victims. Furthermore, a favorable atmosphere for public participation in disaster risk reduction can be fostered and should be a long-term adaptation strategy. The views and frameworks of adaptive governance provide policy makers with insights on coastal disaster risk management within the broader context of climate change. 相似文献
298.
The purpose of the research was to improve prediction of response of buildings to blast waves by including the negative phase and considering clearing of both positive and negative phases. Commonly used structural design practices, which trace their origins to military design manuals, often ignore the negative phase as well as positive phase clearing. For high explosive threats, this approach is conservative in most circumstances. However, negative phase clearing had not previously been studied for blast waves, and the implications for structural response had not been evaluated. This paper presents results of modeling negative phase blast clearing behavior for a typical blast wave and discusses the differences from positive phase clearing. The implications of including positive and negative phase clearing in building blast damage analysis are also investigated through single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) analyses.Blast waves from explosion sources like a vapor cloud explosion (VCE), pressure vessel burst or high explosive exhibit both positive and negative phases, and the relative magnitude of the positive and negative phases varies among explosion sources and the specific circumstances of each source. A fully reflected blast wave is produced if an incident blast wave were to strike an infinitely tall and wide wall in a normal orientation. Both the positive and negative phases of the blast wave are enhanced by the reflection process. However, when an incident blast wave strikes a wall of finite size in a normal orientation, rarefaction waves are created at the edges of the wall, and the rarefactions sweep down from the roof and inward from sides. The rarefaction waves result in a clearing effect for both the positive and negative phases.Clearing relieves some of the applied blast load on the reflected wall for the positive phase. However, this is not always the case for the negative phase. As shown by the results presented in this paper, clearing may either relieve or enhance the applied negative phase blast load, depending on the duration of the blast wave and the wall dimensions.The impact of negative phase clearing on structural response for generic building components was also investigated. Nonlinear SDOF methods were used to characterize response in terms of peak positive and negative displacements. It was found that the influence of the negative phase is significant and the peak structural response can occur during negative (outward) displacement. 相似文献
299.
为了探究结构差异较大、应用较为广泛的几类增塑剂雌激素活性的联合效应,选择邻苯二甲酸二丁酯(DBP)、双酚A(BPA)和壬基酚(NP)作为邻苯二甲酸酯、双酚A类和烷基酚类增塑剂的代表物进行试验.用DBP、BPA和NP单独及两两混合处理MCF-7细胞.采用MTT法检测培养24h、48 h、72 h和96h时的细胞增殖情况.采用流式细胞术检测药物培养48h后的细胞生长周期分布,并计算细胞增殖指数(PI).运用效应叠加模型(ES)判定联合效应类型.结果表明,在单独暴露试验中,DBP、BPA和NP组PI均大于1,且均能提高S期(DNA合成期)细胞比例.因此,DBP、BPA和NP均能显著促进MCF-7细胞增殖.混合暴露试验中,1)DBP和BPA在MTT试验中24h、48h、72 h和96h时的效应叠加指数(ESI)分别为1.013 9、1.023 8、0.9999、1.010 8,在流式细胞仪试验中ESI为1.014 1.因此,DBP和BPA的雌激素活性联合效应为加和作用.2)DBP和NP在MTT试验中24 h、48 h、72 h和96 h时的ESI分别为1.004 0、1.008 6、1.011 5、1.010 3,流式细胞仪试验中ESI为0.997 0.因此,DBP和NP的雌激素活性联合效应为加和作用.3)BAP和NP在MTT试验中24h、48 h、72 h和96h时的ESI分别为0.980 6、0.981 8、0.977 7、0.973 3,流式细胞仪试验的ESI为0.912 8.由此可知,BPA和NP的雌激素活性联合效应为拮抗作用.因此,可以采用MCF-7细胞增殖试验研究环境污染物雌激素活性联合效应. 相似文献
300.
为提高对职业危害的识别和控制能力,采用跨国企业风险评估模式帮助我国中小企业改善职业健康与安全管理。选用通用电气环境健康安全管理体系中的11个相关元素作为评估工具,对企业开展干预,并评估效果。结果表明,干预效果较好,工人接触有害物质的水平明显降低,个体防护用品使用率和正确使用率有较大提高,职业危害风险评估符合率有明显提高。应用风险评估模式干预的示范企业,职业卫生现状得到有效改善,为企业管理提供了借鉴。 相似文献