北京城区"7.10"灾害性强降水分析

对2004年7月10日发生在北京城区的灾害性强降水过程进行了分析.结果发现,造成本次城区暴雨的天气系统为一中β尺度对流云团,它生成于河北西北部的偏南暖湿气流中,在移到北京城区发展并停留的1～2h内,造成了本次强降水过程.大尺度背景场分析表明,暴雨发生前北京即处于有利降水的形势场中,地面中尺度辐合线可能是强对流的触发系统.此外还初步分析了城市环境对强降水的增幅作用.     

国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项产出城镇降雨径流污染控制技术的成熟度评估及该技术体系发展中面临的挑战

系统梳理了国家“水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项”在“十一五”和“十二五”期间有关课题产出的城镇降雨径流污染控制关键技术,通过对其进行技术和系统成熟度评价来解析我国城镇降雨径流污染控制技术的发展水平和面临挑战,为进一步推进相关技术的发展提供参考。结果表明：我国在城镇降雨径流污染控制技术领域已开展了大量研究工作,研发和应用的大部分单项关键技术的技术成熟度已达到7级,可在一定程度上解决我国城镇径流污染问题;在城镇降雨径流污染控制技术体系中,支撑技术系统成熟度为4级,达到系统发展验证阶段,能够用于开展系统的工程设计,减少集成风险;4个关键技术环节和城镇降雨径流污染控制技术系列的系统成熟度分别为3级和2级,在技术环节和系列方面仅仅形成系统及设计开发策略,能在一定程度上降低系统集成风险,形成组合技术。因此,我国城镇降雨径流污染控制技术的单项技术成熟度还需进一步提高,以加强技术和系统的集成,并开展集成创新,使整体技术系列能达到满足任务需求的设计、运行和处理能力,在系统生命周期内向应用效益最佳的方向优化和发展。     

Ensemble Streamflow Forecast: A GLUE‐Based Neural Network Approach1

Abstract: While training a Neural Network to model a rainfall‐runoff process, generally two aspects are considered: its capability to be able to describe the complex nature of the processes being modeled and the ability to generalize so that novel samples could be mapped correctly. The general conclusion is that, the smallest size network capable of representing the sample distribution is the best choice, as far as generalization is concerned. Oftentimes input variables are selected a priori in what is called an explanatory data analysis stage and are not part of the actual network training and testing procedures. When they are, the final model will have only a “fixed” type of inputs, lag‐space, and/or network structure. If one of these constituents was to change, one would obtain another equally “optimal” Neural Network. Following Beven and others' generalized likelihood uncertainty estimate approach, a methodology is introduced here that accounts for uncertainties in network structures, types of inputs, and their lag‐space relationships by looking at a population of Neural Networks rather than target in getting a single “optimal” network. It is shown that there is a wide array of networks that provide “similar” results, as seen by a likelihood measure, for different types of inputs, lag‐space, and network size combinations. These equally optimal networks expose the range of uncertainty in streamflow predictions and their expected value results in a better performance than any of the single network predictions.     

太阳质子耀斑与降雨指数R间的关系

长江中下游和华北地区的降雨指数R与峰值质子(>10mev)流量≥100pfu质子耀斑呈正相关关系。约有81.3%和76.1%的大质子耀斑(峰值质子流量≥100pfu)事件,在其发生后的第一个月内,长江中下游和华北地区的雨量将明显地增加,如果雨量过大,还容易造成洪水灾害。对于1991年初夏发生的二次特大洪水过程,如果天气预报时,考虑到日面连续爆发大质子耀斑这一天文因素,有可能提前24～30天预报这两次大水,从而做到及早防范。大质子耀斑后,西太平洋副高的西伸北移和极涡南移造成的冷空气南下,是长江中下游和华北地区雨量明显增加的重要原因之一,在夏季汛期,很可能是洪水灾害的主要原因。     

城市化对南昌市降雨变化的影响研究

通过南昌市1951~2007年降雨资料市区站与郊区站对比分析的方法研究南昌市城市化对城市降雨的影响程度。分析表明,随着城市化进程推进,虽然城区汛期雨量没有增加,不存在明显"雨岛效应",但是降雨有趋于集中的趋势,降雨年内分配不均匀更加明显;受城市化的影响,城区降雨变化频率将增大,这直接影响到城市现有的和拟建的排水工程标准和雨洪排水工程的安全;城市化使得城区强降雨发生概率增加,其中对大暴雨发生概率的影响最大。     

渭北旱塬生态用地降水资源化潜力的估算及评价

针对黄土高原地区水资源严重短缺的态势和生态环境建设的需要,以黄土高原典型地区的渭北旱塬为例。对该区各种生态用地降水资源化理论潜力、可实现潜力和现实潜力进行初步估算。并进行相应评价。结果表明：农、林、牧、果业生产结构布局不合理,使得区内各地、市各种降水资源化潜力差异较大;林地、园地、牧草地的自然降水利用率较大：生态用地降水资源化现实潜力开发度与可实现潜力开发度有11．06％差距．现实潜力开发度与理论潜力开发度相比有36．22％潜力尚待开发。证明该区降水资源化潜力较大,但生态环境建设还是受水盗源短缺限制。     

人工增雨对西北地区的减灾作用

概述了我国西北五省(自治区)现有开展人工影响天气的规模、作业特点、人工增雨减灾效果、催化方法和飞机播撒技术。对西北地区人工增雨作业的效益进行了分折,并针对各地区的人工增雨作业提出了建议。事实证明:人工影响天气作业是西北地区气象灾害减灾、促进农牧业发展、改善自然生态环境的一项具有潜力的措施。     

降雨径流面源污染年负荷预测方法的开发——以镇江古运河为例

在对镇江古运河2009~2013年的降雨量、降雨径流污染物量监测的基础上,运用回归分析建立降雨量-径流污染方程,并采用灰色理论对未来降雨量进行预测,进而得出降雨径流面源污染年负荷值。结果表明:2014~2020年间,镇江古运河降雨径流中污染物TP、NH₃-N和SS的年负荷与降雨量同向变化,2020年降雨量达到1 381.2 mm时,污染物TP、NH₃-N和SS的年负荷可分别达到217.15 t、421.4 t、5 811.87 t,数值较大;灰色理论与回归分析结合所提出的降雨径流面源污染年负荷预测方法,能够在小样本、贫信息和波动数据序列情况下,简捷有效的对降雨径流面源污染负荷进行高精度的预测,实用与推广价值较大。     

Effect of sunlight radiation,rainfall and droplet spectra of sprays on persistence of bacillus thuringiensis deposits after application of dipel® 76af formulation onto conifers

Abstract

The effect of sunlight radiation, rainfall and droplet spectra of sprays on per ‐sistence of a Bacillus thuringiensis subspp. kurstaki (Btk) formulation, DiPel^® 76AF, was examined after application onto spruce [Picea glauca (Moench) Voss] foliage. The investigation consisted of three studies: (i) Study I: a laboratory microcosm study to examine the photostability of DiPel 76AF deposits on foliage after different periods of exposure to two radiation intensities, (ii) Study II: a laboratory microcosm study to examine the rainfastness of foliar deposits after exposure to different amounts of rainfall consisting of two separate droplet spectra, and (iii) Study III: a field microcosm study to investigate the influence of two different droplet spectra of DiPel 76AF sprays on foliar persistence of Btk under natural weathering conditions. In all studies, persistence of Btk was investigated both by bioassay [using spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens)] and total protein assay.

The findings of Study I indicated that bioactivity of foliar deposits decreased with increasing duration of exposure to radiation, and with increasing radiation intensity. The half‐life (DT₅₀, the exposure period required for 50% of the initial bioactivity to disappear) was 5.1 d for the low intensity, and 3.9 d for the higher intensity. In contrast with the bioassay results, the total protein levels [determined by the bicinchoninic acid (BCA) method] showed no decrease with increasing duration of exposure, or with increasing radiation intensity.

The findings of Study II indicated that bioactivity of foliar deposits decreased with increasing cumulative rainfall. A new term, RF₅₀ [the amount of rain (in mm) required to washoff 50% of the initial deposit], was introduced to understand the relationship between rainfall intensity and reduction in bioactivity. When the same amount of rain was applied in different droplet sizes, the RF₅₀ value was high (5.2 mm) for the small rain droplets, and was low (2.9 mm) for the large rain droplets. Similar to the bioassay results, the total protein concentrations (determined by the BCA method) decreased with increasing amount of rain and with increasing rainfall intensity. The RF₅₀ value (obtained using ng protein /cm²) was 5.4 mm for the small rain droplets, and was 3.4 mm for the large rain droplets.

The field microcosm study indicated that when DiPel 76AF was applied in small droplets (D_v.5 of 65 μm), the persistence of bioactivity was ca 8.0 d, whereas when it was applied in large droplets (D_v.5 of 130 nm) it was ca 11 d. Bioactivity decreased with time after spray, and the DT₅₀ was 1.98 d for the spray of small droplets, and 2.87 d for that of large droplets. Similar to the bioactivity, the total protein concentrations also decreased with time after spray, and the DT₅₀ values for the small and large droplet spectra were 3.45 and 6.07 d respectively.     

TRMM降水产品在鄱阳湖流域的精度评价

为对比TRMM 3B42 V6和V7两种版本的降水产品在鄱阳湖流域的估算精度,了解TRMM卫星资料在中国南方湿润区的应用前景,利用2003~2010年V6和V7在鄱阳湖流域的降水产品以及同期实测降水数据,从不同时间和空间尺度对比二者在鄱阳湖流域降水的估算精度。结果表明:(1)在年降水总量上,V6和V7的降水估算与实测降水差别不大,而在季和月降水尺度上,V6和V7的估算精度开始有所下降,但V7比V6结果要好一些,V7与实测降水的相关系数比V6与实测降水的相关系数高出0.1以上;(2)空间分布来看,V6和V7都能刻画出鄱阳湖流域降水自西南向东北方向递增的空间格局,但在修水流域和赣南地区,V6与实测降水偏差较大,而V7在这两个区域的降水估算精度有较大改善。总的来说,在鄱阳湖流域,V7估算的降水精度比V6有较大的提升。