滑坡与降雨的耦合关系研究

从暴雨频次、降雨的周期变化、降雨历时、降雨量以及雨型等方面研究了滑坡发生与降雨的耦合关系,发现它们与滑坡的发生存在着密切的联系,文章的最后对研究中存在的问题与展望进行了初步探讨。     

Long‐Term High‐Resolution Radar Rainfall Fields for Urban Hydrology

Accurate records of high‐resolution rainfall fields are essential in urban hydrology, and are lacking in many areas. We develop a high‐resolution (15 min, 1 km²) radar rainfall data set for Charlotte, North Carolina during the 2001‐2010 period using the Hydro‐NEXRAD system with radar reflectivity from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler weather radar located in Greer, South Carolina. A dense network of 71 rain gages is used for estimating and correcting radar rainfall biases. Radar rainfall estimates with daily mean field bias (MFB) correction accurately capture the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall, but bias correction at finer timescales can improve cold‐season and tropical cyclone rainfall estimates. Approximately 25 rain gages are sufficient to estimate daily MFB over an area of at least 2,500 km², suggesting that robust bias correction is feasible in many urban areas. Conditional (rain‐rate dependent) bias can be removed, but at the expense of other performance criteria such as mean square error. Hydro‐NEXRAD radar rainfall estimates are also compared with the coarser resolution (hourly, 16 km²) Stage IV operational rainfall product. Stage IV is adequate for flood water balance studies but is insufficient for applications such as urban flood modeling, in which the temporal and spatial scales of relevant hydrologic processes are short. We recommend the increased use of high‐resolution radar rainfall fields in urban hydrology.     

Floods in the Douala metropolis,Cameroon: attribution to changes in rainfall characteristics or planning failures?

With urban populations worldwide expected to witness substantial growth over the next decades, pressure on urban land and resources is projected to increase in response. For policy-makers to adequately meet the challenges brought about by changes in the dynamics of urban areas, it is important to clearly identify and communicate their causes. Floods in Douala (the most densely populated city in the central African sub-region), are being associated chiefly with changing rainfall patterns, resulting from climate change in major policy circles. We investigate this contention using statistical analysis of daily rainfall time-series data covering the period 1951–2008, and tools of geographic information systems. Using attributes such as rainfall anomalies, trends in the rainfall time series, daily rainfall maxima and rainfall intensity–duration–frequency, we find no explanation for the attribution of an increase in the occurrences and severity of floods to changing rainfall patterns. The culprit seems to be the massive increase in the population of Douala, in association with poor planning and investment in the city's infrastructure. These demographic changes and poor planning have occurred within a physical geography setting that is conducive for the inducement of floods. Failed urban planning in Cameroon since independence set the city up for a flood-prone land colonization. This today translates to a situation in which large portions of the city's surface area and the populations they harbor are vulnerable to the city's habitual annual floods. While climate change stands to render the city even more vulnerable to floods, there is no evidence that current floods can be attributed to the changes in patterns of rainfall being reported in policy and news domains.     

Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States1

Bonnin, Geoffrey M., Kazungu Maitaria, and Michael Yekta, 2011. Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6): 1173–1182. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00603.x Abstract: Semantic differences have led to a gap in the understanding of the impacts of climate change on precipitation frequency estimates. There is popular perception that heavy rainfalls have become more frequent, and that this trend will increase with global warming. Most of the literature examines this question from the point of view of climatology using definitions of “heavy,”“very heavy,” or “extreme” rainfall, which are different from those commonly used by civil engineers. This article identifies the differences in meaning used by the climate and civil engineering communities and examines trends in the observed record in the frequency of exceedances (not trends in magnitudes). Using concepts recognized as the basis for design of the Nation’s civil infrastructure, we look at trends in the number of exceedances of thresholds for a variety of precipitation frequencies and event durations used by civil engineers. We found that the estimated trends in exceedances at one‐day and multiday durations were statistically significant and increasing for the Ohio River Basin and surrounding states but the reverse was true for the Semiarid Southwest (i.e., not significant and decreasing trends). In addition, we found the magnitude of the trends was small for all but the more frequent events and also small with respect to the uncertainty associated with the precipitation frequency estimates themselves.     

降雨对坡面产沙及土壤养分流失的影响研究

为研究天然降雨条件下坡面产沙及土壤养分流失的变化规律,根据当地不同的种植模式,在野外标准径流小区进行试验.结果表明,采用玉米顺垄耕作坡面产沙量同I30关系最为密切,产沙量随I30的增大而增多;采用玉米横垄的耕作方式时,坡面产沙量同降雨量和降雨强度没有明显的变化规律.降雨量对径流中土壤养分流失量的影响不明显,而径流中土壤...     

湖南省公路交通暴雨风险评价研究

以湖南省为例,在地理信息系统技术和灰色综合评价方法的支持下,建立了基于栅格数据的公路交通暴雨风险评价模型,对湖南省公路交通暴雨风险状况进行了评价与分析。结果表明:公路水毁情况严重的岳阳、永州、郴州、常德、张家界、湘西以及娄底等地,其暴雨风险水平亦较高;受灾国道和省道几乎均处于较重度以上暴雨风险区。说明本风险评价模型具有一定的可信度。基于栅格数据层建立的公路交通暴雨风险评价从空间上突破了行政界限的制约,突出显示了公路受灾风险的时空格局,为公路暴雨灾害预报提供了技术支持。     

前期有效降雨对滑坡启动影响分析

降雨是诱发边坡失稳破坏的主要原因。以坡地水文模型为基础,结合无限边坡稳定计算模型,研究降雨条件下边坡启动的临界降雨条件。以都江堰市为研究区域,研究前期降雨、边坡体地下水位和渗流时间的关系,再结合滑坡启动的临界降雨模型,定量分析前期有效降雨对滑坡启动的影响。     

高速公路关键地段路面径流污染特征研究

在对湖南省长潭西高速公路关键地段(学士收费站和服务区加油站)降雨径流水质进行监测的基础上,分析了高速公路路面径流污染物特征,探讨了各污染物的初期冲刷效应和各污染因子间的相关性。结果表明,收费站路面径流样品中的COD和SS平均浓度分别为70 585 mg/L,而服务区加油站样品的COD和SS平均浓度分别为120 357 mg/L。受汇水面积差异的影响,收费站处的径流污染物未发生初期冲刷现象,而加油站的径流污染物均产生初期冲刷效应,以COD最为明显,20%的径流量携带的COD含量接近50%。2个地段的各污染物之间相关性处于显著水平以上,SS与其他污染物的相关系数均大于0.7。     

自然坑塘对夏季降雨径流污染的截流净化效果

选取上海市临港新城4种不同类型的自然坑塘,比较其在夏季对降雨径流污染的截留效应以及水质净化效果。结果表明:场地主要降雨径流污染物为TN、COD,自然坑塘对降雨径流污染具有较好的截留效应,但自然坑塘的截流效率并未得到最大程度的发挥。自然坑塘对于水质的净化处理效果总体较好,研究期内4个自然坑塘的TP平均净化率分别为:46.4%、4.6%、57.6%、57.4%;TN平均净化率分别为:34.7%、40.7%、46.4%、26.9%;COD平均净化率分别为:21.6%、40.5%、47.3%、-4.3%。在高温少雨、水深过浅的情况下,自然坑塘易出现水华现象,影响水质净化效果。因此,需要对自然坑塘进行优化设计、改造,保持自然坑塘生态系统的稳定与自我更新能力,才能最大限度地发挥其对于城市雨洪调蓄、径流污染控制等方面的综合生态价值。     

东部湿润区典型小流域土地利用的土壤水效应

不同土地利用类型下土壤水变化机制对流域水文过程与生态环境有较大影响。基于我国东部湿润区野外综合观测土壤墒情数据,探讨了不同土地利用类型下土壤水的动态变化特征。结果表明：（1）总体上,杨梅林土壤含水量在32%~37%之间波动;农田土壤含水量在20%~30%波动。坡耕地土壤含水量稳定在27%~35%之间;竹林土层土壤含水量大致稳定在25%~32%之间。垂直剖面上,表层（10 cm、20 cm）土壤水分变化大,深层（60~80 cm）土壤水分变化较小。表层土壤水分时间变化特征的波动幅度较深层土壤大。（2）不同降雨强度下,竹林土壤水分对降雨的响应程度大于杨梅林、农田和坡耕地。降雨强度越大,土壤水分响应程度越大;降雨停止后,土壤水分消退起伏下降,深层土壤水分变化较表层稳定。（3）通过增墒系数和减墒系数对土壤水分变化进行量化,发现竹林的消退最明显,其余三种土地利用类型变化幅度相当。杨梅林、农田和竹林均是表层变化较深层大,坡耕地变化更为复杂。研究结果将为我国东部湿润地区产汇流机理及防洪减灾研究提供一定参考。