贵州龙里实验区酸性降水特征及变化趋势

以2007年4月～2008年12月贵州龙里实验区的降水监测数据为基础,运用统计学方法对该地区大气降水酸度和化学组成的特征及其季节变化趋势进行分析.结果表明,研究期内当地的降水pH均值为4.70,酸雨占降雨次数的70.1%和总降雨量的76.7%.酸雨的发生呈现一定的季节变化特征,其中春季为酸雨高发季节.降水中SO42-、NO3-、NH4+、Ca2+等含量较高.与相关研究进行对比,初步认为该地区大气降水所带来的S和N的湿沉降量尚未超过当地生态系统的酸沉降临界负荷.     

气象水文要素对流域产沙量和输沙量影响研究

选取年降雨量和流量等气象水文要素作因子，应用Ｂ－Ｐ神经网格，建立渠江流域毛坝、车林两站的年均含沙量和输沙量的预测模型。其模型拟合合格率达９０％以上，预留预测检验合格率达８０％以上。     

ASSESSMENT OF SAMPLING ERROR ASSOCIATED WITH SOIL MOISTURE ESTIMATION DESIGNS1

A spectral formalism was developed and applied to quantify the sampling errors due to spatial and/or temporal gaps in soil moisture measurements. A design filter was developed to compute the sampling errors for discrete measurements in space and time. This filter has as its advantage a general form applicable to various types of sampling design. The lack of temporal measurements of the two‐dimensional soil moisture field made it difficult to compute the spectra directly from observed records. Therefore, the wave number frequency spectra of soil moisture data derived from stochastic models of rainfall and soil moisture were used. Parameters for both models were estimated using data from the Southern Great Plains Hydrology Experiment (SGP97) and the Oklahoma Mesonet. The estimated sampling error of the spatial average soil moisture measurement by airborne L‐band microwave remote sensing during the SGP97 hydrology experiment is estimated to be 2.4 percent. Under the same climate conditions and soil properties as the SGP97 experiment, equally spaced ground probe networks at intervals of 25 and 50 km are expected to have about 16 percent and 27 percent sampling error, respectively. Satellite designs with temporal gaps of two and three days are expected to have about 6 percent and 9 percent sampling errors, respectively.     

IMPACTS OF CALIFORNIA'S CLIMATIC REGIMES AND COASTAL LAND USE CHANGE ON STREAMFLOW CHARACTERISTICS1

ABSTRACT: To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC‐HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate stream flow for a 14‐year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14‐year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino‐Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two stream flow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing stream flow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14‐year distributions of stream flow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14‐year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m³/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m³/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern.     

Climate change implications for disaster risk management in Japan: A case study on perceptions of risk management personnel and communities in Saijo city

This paper reviews climate change impacts and the existing disaster risk management system in Japan and offers the results of a structured questionnaire survey of the community leaders and disaster risk management personnel of Saijo city of Japan that assesses their perceptions about dealing with the extreme disasters by the existing disaster risk management systems. This study was inspired by the record number of typhoon landfall that has surprised the local government and communities in 2004. While unearthing the hidden vulnerabilities in cities like Saijo, this event has loosened the confidence of local communities on the disaster risk management systems. From the study, we conclude that the existing disaster risk management systems need further fillip and that the proactive community involvement in disaster risk management is still in nascent stages. Associating with the scientific community, involving the local communities (including the elderly), enhancing the redundancy in disaster risk management systems, inculcating strategic thinking and micro-level planning, conducting vulnerability assessments by considering the special circumstances including resource constraints of small cities and better policy coordination across the administrative hierarchy are some important considerations for dealing with the uncertainty brought by the extreme events.     

降雨入渗诱发斜坡失稳的物理模型适用性分析

降雨是诱发斜坡失稳的一个十分重要的触发因素和动力来源。基于降雨入渗诱发斜坡失稳的物理过程建立相应的物理模型是评价降雨型滑坡的有效方法。在查阅大量相关资料的基础上,按照降雨入渗模型和斜坡稳定性分析方法的不同,将常用的降雨入渗诱发斜坡失稳的物理模型大致分为三大类:Green-Ampt入渗模型与无限边坡稳定性方法相结合的模型(Ⅰ类)、Richard入渗理论与无限边坡稳定性方法相结合的模型(Ⅱ类)、其他水文模型与边坡稳定性方法相结合的模型(Ⅲ类),并对各种物理模型的假设条件、优缺点和适用性等进行了深入分析、归纳和总结,以期为实践中降雨滑坡评价模型的选择提供理论依据。     

Local perception of infrequent,extreme upland flash flooding: prisoners of experience?

The United Kingdom has experienced several exceptional summer flash floods in recent years and there is growing concern about the frequency of such events and the preparedness of the population. This paper uses a case study of the upper Ryedale flash flood (2005) and questionnaire and interview data to assess local perceptions of upland flash flooding. Experience of a major flash flood may not be associated with increased flood risk perception. Despite local residents’ awareness of a trend towards wetter summers and more frequent heavy rainfall, the poor maintenance of rivers was more frequently thought to be a more significant factor influencing local flood risk than climate change. Such findings have important implications for the potential success of contemporary national flood policies, which have put greater emphasis on public responsibility for responding to flooding. This study recommends, therefore, the use of fresh participatory approaches to redistribute and raise awareness of locally‐held flood knowledge.     

模拟降雨试验研究神东矿区不同阶段堆积弃土的水土流失

选择了神东矿区内坡度范围在30°～35°之间,弃土时间分别为2002～2003年、2000～2001年、1998～1999年、1996～1997年、1994～1995年、1992～1993年、1990～1991年以及原状土共计8个试验区进行强度为1.5和2.5mm·min-1的土壤侵蚀模拟试验.经过数据处理,获得了16场降雨的累积产沙曲线;利用统计软件SPSS11.5进行因子分析,确定了影响土壤侵蚀的主要因子为弃土堆积时间和土壤的植被覆盖度.结果表明,不同阶段弃土具有明显不同的抗侵蚀能力;随着堆积时间的增加,弃土的植被覆盖度和抗侵蚀能力都有较明显的提高;弃土时间超过7a的地区植被和抗侵蚀能力都有较好的恢复,而堆积时间超过10a的弃土基本达到原状土土壤的抗侵蚀水平.     

降雨特征及污染物赋存类型对路面径流污染排放的影响

在西安市城市主干道南二环路太白立交高架段设置路面径流采样点,采用人工时间间隔采样法对2014年7月~2015年9月的13场径流事件全程采样,共获得样品207个,测试径流过程SS、COD、溶解态COD、Cu、溶解态Cu、Pb、溶解态Pb、Cr、溶解态Cr、Cd、溶解态Cd的质量浓度变化,研究降雨特征及污染物赋存类型对路面径流污染质量浓度变化和负荷排放的影响.结果表明,西安市城市道路径流SS、COD污染严重,是径流的主要污染物,重金属Pb、Cr污染水平亦较高;径流过程中污染物质量浓度变化与降雨特征及污染物赋存状态密切相关,溶解态污染物排放不受降雨特征影响,均在径流初期达到质量浓度峰值随即持续降低,颗粒态污染物的质量浓度峰值出现在足够大的降雨强度峰值之后,径流过程随雨强变化波动显著,且受降雨历时和降雨量等因素的共同影响;降雨特征对溶解态污染物负荷排放的影响较小,但对颗粒态污染物具有显著影响.Ⅰ、Ⅱ型降雨事件较之Ⅲ型降雨,SS、COD、Cu、Pb、Cr、Cd的负荷初期冲刷效应更明显;路面径流的负荷初期冲刷效应并非普遍存在,所监测径流场次所有污染指标均未出现强烈的负荷初期冲刷,各污染物的负荷初期冲刷程度排序为CODSS溶CODCuPbCr溶CuCd溶Pb溶Cr溶Cd.     

双龙湖枯、丰水期交替期间水质变化评价研究

对双龙湖枯、丰水期交替期浮游藻类种类、数量及总氮、总磷、高锰酸盐指数、叶绿素a、透明度、浊度等指标进行监测分析，从浮游藻类营养分级标准法、优势藻类指示法及生物指标评价法和富营养化综合评价法对双龙湖营养状态进行评价，认为双龙湖丰水期初期水质优于枯水期末期，处于中营养化水平，枯水期末期处于富营养状态。研究评价枯、丰水期的水质变化规律，为加强双龙湖污染防治，改善和保持水环境提供科学依据。