低功率和停堆工况下人员可靠性分析

低功率和停堆工况下人的错误操作引起的人误事件,是电站风险的重要根源之一,应对其进行认真分析并找出其发生的主要原因。笔者根据低功率和停堆工况下人误事件的特点,通过对5种人员可靠性分析方法的比较,选择了SPAR -H作为人误事件定量化分析的方法;以停堆工况下的抽水过多事件为实例,对该事件中包含的3个人误事件进行了定量化分析,给出了定量化分析结果;通过分析、比较及实例应用的结果表明,SPAR H作为低功率和停堆工况下HRA分析方法是合适的,符合该工况下人误事件的特点,同时SPAR H过程简单,有利于电站人员进行实际应用。     

太阳质子耀斑引发旱涝灾害的模糊预测

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AN OBJECTWE TEST FOR HYDROLOGIC SCALE1

ABSTRACT: Improving the reliability of parametric hydrologic models (sometimes called cenceptual rainfall-runoff models) in the continuous simulation of runoff from ungaged catchments has been frustrated by difficulties in estimating model parameters from catchment characteristics. An underlying problem is that these models use parameters to represent catchments as a whole, whereas data on catchment characteristics are collected at multiple field locations and are difficult to transform into one measure of collective impact. Subdividing the catchment and calibrating a stochastic parametric model to estimate distributions for the parameters that covered the range of observed streamflow values was found to improve the simulations. This paper presents an optimization of the amount of subdivision to use in simulation with a version of the Stanford Watershed Model using available climatological data. The calibration process assumes that catchment heterogeneity introduces errors that can be reduced by calibrating parameters as spatial distributions rather than single values. Calibrations for three diverse small gaged catchments located in California and in Virginia found the optimal number of subdivisions to range from 4 to 25 and the optimal scale to range from 0.3 to 2.1 mi².     

SPACE-TIME TRADEOFFS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC DATA SETS OF COMPETING RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS: A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The concept of a space-time tradeoff is extended to the hydrologic data sets of competing rainfall-runoff modeling techniques. Examples are given by comparing the performance of a regression model and a quasi-physically based model using data from an experimental catchment and data synthetically generated. Space-time tradeoffs are demonstrated within the data sets of the two modeling techniques, but not across the competing hydrologic data sets.     

USING A DISTRIBUTED ROUTING RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Urban storm water data from four catchments near Miami, Florida, were collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey and were used for testing the applicability of deterministic modeling for characterizing storm water flows from small land use areas. The four sites were:

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