FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR EVALUATING WATERSHED CONDITIONS WITh RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Many rainfall-runoff modeling studies compare flood quantiles for different land-use and/or flood mitigation scenarios. However, when flood quantiles are estimated using conventional statistical methods, comparisons may be misleading because the estimates often misrepresent the quantile relationship between scenarios. An alternate statistical procedure is proposed, in which rainfall-runoff modeling is used to evaluate an approximate relationship between flood quantiles for different scenarios. Monte Carlo experiments show that the proposed method produces flood quantile estimates that better reflect the differences between scenarios. The ratio between quantiles for different scenarios is more accurate, so comparisons of the scenarios using flood quantiles are more reliable.     

APPLICATION OF SCS INFILTRATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: The SCS infiltration model was applied to the Ralston Creek watershed in eastern Iowa. The criteria to determine the various model parameters were revised to obtain a better agreement between the observed and computed total runoffs. A procedure to calibrate the infiltration model is presented. The infiltration model was used in conjunction with an overland flow model to develop flood hydrographs. The results indicate that SCS infiltration model adequately describe the distribution of losses.     

PREDICTING PEAK STREAM FLOW FROM AN UNDISTURBED WATERSHED IN THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS1

ABSTRACT: Data from a small forested catchment were used to model peak stream flow as a function of basic hydrologic variables associated with 112 rain storms. Rainfall depth and initial stream flow rate accounted for 87.1 percent of peak flow variability. Forty expressions of rainfall intensity (describing both the temporal sequence of intensity for 20 equal storm intervals, and maximum intensity for 20 separate interval lengths) were used in an attempt to improve the predictability of basic models. None of the intensity parameters improved predictability by as much as 2 percent, apparently because the most intense rainfall bursts generally occurred near the beginning of storm periods. Mean rainfall intensity for entire storms was generally as effective as any of the shorter interval intensities, and its use helped to linearize the relationship between peak flow and rainfall depth and duration.     

基于蝴蝶结模型分析“11·22”东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故

为了找出"11·22"中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故发生原因及有效预防措施,利用蝴蝶结模型将事故树与事件树结合分析事故发生原因及后果,研究企业和政府相关部门在输油管线管理及泄漏处理方面存在的问题,提出有效的防范措施,对提高类似事故的管理与应急处置能力有一定的意义。     

Bow-tie模型分析在乙烯球罐区的应用实践

针对乙烯球罐区属于一级重大危险源和高风险重点监控区域的特点,将Bow-tie模型分析方法引入到乙烯球罐区的风险管理中,通过识别危险因素和初始事件,确定乙烯泄漏为顶上事件,定性分析了导致乙烯球罐泄漏的原因和后果,设置有针对性的预防和减缓屏障,验证了各屏障的有效性,提出针对性的措施,实现Bow-tie模型分析方法在乙烯球罐区风险管控的成功运用。     

确保环境安全 构建和谐社会

我国现阶段，环境恶化趋势尚未得到有效遏制，环境灾难也时有发生，环境安全形势不容乐观。接连不断的环境污染事件对人民健康、生态环境、经济发展造成了严重影响。文章就确保公众的环境安全提出了几项措施，以期改善目前的环境污染状况．加快构建和谐社会的步伐。     

中央环保督察“回头看”的市场反应——基于重污染行业上市公司的影响分析

运用事件研究法和非参数检验,探究了中央环保督察“回头看”的宣布实施对于沪深两市A股重污染行业上市公司收益情况的影响及其差异情况,结果显示：事件窗内中央环保督察“回头看”使得重污染行业上市公司的平均累计异常收益率降低至-2.005%,且这一负面冲击在时间上有延长趋势;不同公司性质、子行业的重污染行业上市公司所受影响存在显著差异.就企业性质差异而言,非国有公司累计收益率所受的负面冲击平均比国有公司高1.696%.在不同行业中,建材、制药、石化行业所受负面冲击最大,纺织、造纸、制革行业所受影响则较小.此外,市场对于火电、化工行业企业的反应并非多为负向,注重环境管理使得部分企业在中央环保督察“回头看”中得到了市场的正向回馈.建议持续推进中央环保督察“回头看”制度,以切实促进公司开展节能减排,同时,重污染行业公司特别是非国有公司以及上述行业公司应加强自身环境管理,积极进行环境信息披露,从而尽可能避免在类似的环境规制中受到负面冲击.     

西安市城市主干道路面径流污染特征研究

在西安市城市主干道南二环路建立路面径流原位采样站,利用自制流量等比例采样装置,全程收集2009年3月~2010年2月的32场降雨产生的路面径流,测试径流SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH3-N、Pb、溶解性Pb、Zn和溶解性Zn的事件平均浓度(EMC),研究路面径流污染强度、污染物赋存状态、相关关系、浓度影响因素以及季节变化规律.结果表明,城市主干道路面径流污染物EMC变异大且污染严重,SS、COD、溶解性COD、NH3-N、Pb、Zn、溶解性Zn的EMC中值分别为1543,574,129,1.86,0.042,0.219,0.111mg/L,变异系数0.41~0.8,其中SS、COD的EMC中值远大于《污水综合排放标准》三级标准,是主要污染物.路面径流中Pb主要以颗粒态存在,而47.4%的Zn、25.1%的COD呈溶解态.径流中颗粒物是许多其他污染物的载体,COD、Pb、Zn均与SS在显著性水平0.01时显著相关,相关系数分别为0.845,0.807和0.903.表征降雨特征的各因子中,降雨量、最大降雨强度与污染物浓度呈负相关,降雨历时与除NH3-N之外的其他污染物呈负相关,相关性依次为降雨量>最大降雨强度>降雨历时,前期晴天时间与溶解性Zn和溶解性COD浓度正相关,但与其它污染指标不相关.方差分析结果表明,SS、COD和NH3-N浓度随季节明显变化,而溶解态COD、重金属Pb、Zn和溶解态Zn的浓度季节差异不大.     

建立突发环境影响事件应急处置体系

随着经济的高速发展,环境安全问题日益突显,突发环境事件正逐步进入高发期。本文在对突发环境事件特点分析的基础上,对突发环境事件应急处置体系的构成做了初步的探索,详细介绍了地区突发环境事件应急处置体系应包含的组成要素和相应功能,对地区突发环境事件应急体系的建立具有很好的借鉴作用。     

城市绿地削减降雨地表径流污染效应的试验研究

针对城市降雨地表径流造成的非点源污染已成为城市收纳水体水质恶化和生态退化的主要因素这一现状,利用室内土壤柱模拟城市绿地对典型降雨地表径流污染的削减效应,研究土地覆被、径流污染物浓度、土层厚度以及水力负荷与停留时间对污染削减率的影响.结果表明,在低、中和高3种典型降雨地表径流污染浓度水平(COD为44.5、144.3、487.2 mg.L-1;NH4+-N为4.27、11.44、36.61 mg.L-1;TP为0.98、2.85、9.66 mg.L-1),8.15、7.13和6.12 cm.h-1的进水负荷持续1 h条件下,城市绿地的污染削减能力良好、稳定,对照组对COD、NH4+-N和TP的平均削减率分别达到33.41%~37.14%、58.74%~61.49%和63.65%~67.08%;受复氧能力和水力停留时间的限制,绿地覆被植物对污染物削减率的影响不明显;随着降雨地表径流污染浓度水平的增加,绿地的污染综合削减率保持在50%~60%左右,略有增大趋势;绿地对降雨地表径流污染的削减主要发生在深度50~70 cm的土层之上.