从非典事件看政府的危机管理制度创新

传染性非典型肺炎一度在世界各地迅速蔓延,是对政府的危机管理制度一次前所未有的严峻考验。这次非典危机也暴露出了我国政府危机管理制度存在的缺陷。我们必须抓住这个契机,进行政府危机管理制度的创新,以不断提升政府的危机管理能力。     

降雨径流污染风险等级识别与优化方法

径流污染控制是当前城市水环境保护的难题,识别径流污染物入河风险是提高污染控制效率的关键.将景观格局与过程相结合,借助景观指数和最小阻力模型,提出了降雨径流污染风险识别和治理方法.计算得到研究区主要河段的降雨径流污染格局、过程和综合风险指数;并计算出以耕地、城镇建设用地和交通工矿用地为"源"产生的风险路径分别为256、1...     

生态环境执法事件本体构建研究和实践应用

结合生态环境执法特点,建立生态环境执法事件本体模型,并对执法不同阶段的相关概念进行统一语义约定.该模型通过时间、环境、对象、动作、状态和语言描述六要素来描述执法事件,通过执法事件类、事件类间关系、事件推理规则和事件实例案件的四元组结构进行执法事件的表达.同时,以某热力工程公司运营的锅炉房超标排放烟气污染物的执法案件构建...     

Opportunities for redistributed manufacturing and digital intelligence as enablers of a circular economy

The linear production of consumer goods is characterised by mass manufacture by multinational enterprises and globally dispersed supply chains. The current centralised model has created a distance between the manufacturer and end user, limiting the opportunity for intelligent circular approaches for production and consumption. Through a mixed method approach, opportunities of circularity are explored for the consumer goods sector. The study presents four lenses to analyse three enterprises through a multi-case study approach to explore the potential of digital intelligence and redistributed manufacturing (RDM) as enablers of circular business models. In addition, the study examines whether Discrete Event Simulation can be used to evaluate the circular scenarios identified through quantifying flows of material that determine traditional economic value (cost/tonne). The mixed method approach demonstrates that, a qualitative systemic analysis can reveal opportunities for circularity, gained through implementing ‘digital intelligence’ and distributed models of production and consumption. Furthermore, simulations can provide a quantified evaluation on the effects of introducing circular activities across a supply chain.     

基于硫碳同位素研究南京北郊冬季霾事件中PM2.5来源

2015年12月27日—2016年1月6日,针对南京北郊地区一次霾事件所采PM_(2.5)样品,测定样品中水溶性离子、硫同位素与碳同位素组分含量。水溶性离子研究结果表明:该次霾事件以二次污染为主且移动源占主要地位。硫同位素分析结果表明:硫酸盐的δ~(34)S(SO_4~(2-))值的范围为4.4‰~6.8‰,平均值为5.7‰±0.7‰(n=11),结合该地潜在硫源可知,此次霾事件中硫酸盐气溶胶主要来源为机动车尾气及煤炭燃烧。PM_(2.5)中的δ~(13)C值变化范围为-28.43‰~-24.94‰,平均值为-26.62‰±1.11‰,说明碳质污染物来源主要为机动车尾气、燃煤。此外,硫、碳同位素具有较好的负相关性,结合潜在硫源、碳源可知,2016年1月1日之前,南京北郊地区大气污染源以汽油车尾气排放为主;1月1日之后大气污染源以柴油车尾气和燃煤排放为主。     

The Role of Communication in Preparation for Wildland Fire: A Literature Review

Fire regimes are needed for healthy forest ecosystems, but citizens who live parallel to public forests do not always understand or favour the mechanisms land managers use for fire prevention and preparation. One way that land managers and citizens may share concerns and overcome barriers is through effective communication, allowing both parties to adequately prepare for a wildfire event. While collaboration between land managers and citizens has been well studied, the research on communication between citizens and among land managers is less prevalent yet equally important. The lack of research on communication between these parties creates an incomplete picture of the spectrum of communication that takes place in preparation for a wildland fire event. This paper reviews the current literature on communication between and among citizens and land managers before a wildfire event.     

城市高温热浪调控机制模拟研究

在全球气候变暖和城市化加速发展的共同影响下,高温热浪事件频繁发生、日趋严重。为了分析屋顶亮化、城市绿化和地表增湿在调节城市热力环境、缓解城市高温灾害中的作用,本文选择了2013年8月的高温天气过程,利用耦合了城市冠层模式的WRF模拟系统,采用屋顶亮化、屋顶绿化和地表增湿3种不同的调控方案模拟分析其对城市热环境、湿度和近地面热量通量的影响,及其不同的降温效果和影响时段。研究发现:(1)3种调控方案通过改变城市地区的辐射过程或者能量平衡过程,降低白天尤其是正午时分的近地面气温,可有效的减缓夏季城市地区的高温热浪。(2)采用地表增湿方案,当城市街道表面含水层厚度从0mm增加到3mm时,潜热通量迅速增加,感热通量迅速减少,降温迅速。这说明在白天用较少水量多次对城市街道增湿,是一种显著降温的有效方法。     

Consequence risk analysis using operating procedure event trees and dynamic simulation

Faults due to human errors cost the petrochemical industry billions of dollars every year and can have adverse environmental consequences. Unquantified human error probabilities exist during process state transitions performed each day by process operators using standard operating procedures. Managing the risks associated with operating procedures is an essential part of managing the overall safety risk. Additional operator training and safety education cannot eliminate all such faults due to human errors; therefore, we propose an operating procedure event tree (OPET) like analysis with branches and events specifically designed to perform risk analysis on operating procedures. The OPET method adapts event trees to analyze the risk due to human error while performing operating procedures. We consider human error scenarios during the procedure and determine the likely consequences by applying dynamic simulation. The modified event tree provides an estimate of the error frequencies.Operating procedure steps were developed, and potential operator faults were determined for two typical equipment switching procedures found in chemical plant operations. Then, dynamic simulation using Aspen HYSYS software was applied to determine the overpressure related consequences of each fault. Finally, the error frequencies resulting from those scenarios were analyzed using operating procedure event trees. We found that a typical ethylene plant gas header would overpressure with 0.6% frequency per manual dryer switch. Since dryer switches occur from every few days up to once per shift, these results suggest that dryer switching should be automated to ensure safe and environmentally friendly operation. Process dryer switching performed manually by operators opening and closing gate valves can be automated with control valves and a distributed control system. A sample distillation column was found to overpressure with 0.85% frequency per manual reflux pump switch.     

事故致因“2-4”模型中“事件”与“动作”的关系探讨

为进一步完善和简化事故致因"2-4"模型,对模型中的"事件"和"动作"之间的关系进行探讨。首先,通过文献分析,确定了事件、动作和状态的定义及属性,提出了动作是事件的观点并加以图示说明。然后,以北京交通大学"12. 26"较大实验室爆炸事故为案例,对图示进行解释,详细分析了上述观点的合理性。结果表明:动作和状态是人和物都具备的,并且状态包含在动作过程中;动作、状态、事故都是事件,事件是人或物的动作,或者动作过程中的某一瞬时状态,故"2-4"模型中动作和事件是等价的,可以相互替代或混用。     

基于天气分型的北京地区雷电潜势预报预警系统

对1997-2006年457个雷暴过程的环流形势进行对比分析,将北京地区的雷暴天气分为东北低涡低槽、贝蒙低涡低槽、西来槽等11种雷暴天气型;利用南郊观象台(54511站)的探空资料计算对流有效位能、抬升指数和相对风暴螺旋度等33个对流参数,通过与北京地区SAFAIR3000获取的闪电定位资料进行统计分析,提取BCAPE、BLI、MDCI、BIC、KNEW和SWISS等6个对流参数作为北京地区潜势预报参数;采用事件概率回归(REEP)方法,利用获取的6个对流参数作为变量,形成了11种雷暴天气型下的潜势预报方法。利用WRF模式的预报场,建立适用于北京地区3～36 h雷电潜势预报系统。个例实验结果表明其具有较好准确性。由于该系统建立过程中使用了高分辨率探测资料和中尺度模式的输出结果,实现了雷电潜势预报由点到面,由粗到细的突破,对北京地区雷电预警预报具有一定的应用价值。