大型活动中人群的应急行为研究综述

为完善对大型活动的应急处理能力,预防应急事件发生,研究人群在应急状况下的行为反应及疏散中的行为决策。从应急管理和救援的角度,对国内外现有文献进行梳理,分析大型活动背景下人群的应急行为和疏散时间、应急疏散模型、应急逃生的调查实证、交通及人流行为特征和组织与疏散方案等方面的研究现状,指出当前国内外大多数文献较多地侧重于利用计算机模拟火灾环境以研究单一建筑体中人的应急疏散行为,行为调查以事后调查为主,对火灾环境之外的其他突发应急事件及个体行为特征的研究等较少。同时,基于试验性研究的应急心理反应对于行为的影响研究,以及群体信任和他人行为对于行为决策的影响等可以作为未来研究的重要方向。     

火山灰下的记忆──辽西中生代热河化石库的组成和形成

燕山期环太平洋构造活动导致辽西频繁地火山喷发。巨星火山灰一次次覆盖火山周围丛林和湖沼．掩埋了各种生物，形成学术价值极高的化石库（fossillagerstatte），尤其是鸟类和昆虫化石及动物的毛发、羽毛、膜翅及内脏等软组织结构，都或多或少地以精细的碳化膜或印痕保存。特别是近年一系列新发现，如孔子鸟（Confucinsornis）和带毛的秀颌龙（Compsognathus）／中华龙鸟（Sinosauroteryx）等，引起国内外学术界的轰动。笔者研究了其中一批化石，从古生态和埋藏事件进行探讨认为：（1）该生物群代表分子中鹦鹉嘴龙（Psittacosaurus）、带毛秀颌龙／中华龙鸟及孔子鸟等，很可能是温血动物。（2）频繁的火山喷发不但将巨量的火山灰沉积在广大的湖泊丛林区，加快了其沼泽化的进程，对煤层及油页岩层的形成起了催化作用。     

基于流域地形地貌特征的分布式汇流方法

以长江三峡区间沿渡河流域为例,采用HEC-HMS水文模型系统为模拟工具,基于流域下垫面特征和水动力条件提出了一种分布式单位线方法,并应用于降雨径流过程模拟。以自然分水线划分子流域,基于DEM数据和GIS工具提取河网水系特征。采用7种模型评估指标,分别从总量平衡,过程拟合,高水流量和低水流量4个角度评判模型的模拟效果及精度,并给出了模型模拟结果的量化统计指标。模拟结果表明:25场洪水中,洪峰流量相对误差小于20%的有80%,径流深相对误差小于20%的有96%,Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数大于0.8的有84%。由此可知,提出的分布式汇流方法可有效利用流域下垫面特征和GIS工具提取模型参数信息,适应于无资料流域的降雨径流过程模拟应用。     

1960-2009 年河西地区极端干湿事件的演变特征

采用1960-2009 年甘肃省河西地区13 个观测站逐日气象资料,应用FAO Penman-Monteith 模型计算各气象站年和月的地表湿润指数,进行标准化后统计极端干湿事件频率。采用反距离加权插值法、Mann-Kendall 法及Morlet 小波分析对河西地区极端干湿事件的时空演变特征进行探讨。结果表明：近50 a,河西地区极端干旱和湿润事件频率在波动变化中分别呈减少和增加趋势,其倾向率分别为-0.009 次/a、0.019 次/a,且2000 年以后,趋势更为显著;空间变化上,区域内极端干旱事件倾向率的空间差异整体呈减小趋势,以2000-2009 年的空间差异为最小。20 世纪60 年代,大部分区域极端干旱事件频率增加区与极端湿润事件频率减少区相对应,而极端干旱事件频率减少区与极端湿润事件频率增加区相对应。突变分析表明,极端干旱和湿润事件频率分别在1998 年和1986 年发生突变。平均风速、平均气温和相对湿度是影响河西地区极端干湿事件的主要气象因子,极端干旱和湿润事件频率的主周期分别为19 a和26 a。     

Impacts of climatic change on water and natural hazards in the Alps: Can current water governance cope with future challenges? Examples from the European “ACQWA” project

This paper reviews the possible future situation of the Rhone River in the Swiss part of its catchment. Physical processes in the Alps govern the behaviour of the Rhone from its source (Rhone Glacier) to the Lake of Geneva, and substantial changes are expected to occur in the amount and seasonality of precipitation, and in the response of snow and glaciers to a warming climate. As a result, discharge in the alpine part of the Rhone River is likely to undergo an increase in winter and early spring, but strongly decreases from late spring to late autumn. These changes in water regimes will certainly be accompanied by more frequent geomorphic hazards, related to increases in heavy precipitation events and the melting of permanently frozen grounds. The direct and indirect impacts of a warming climate will affect key economic sectors such as tourism, hydropower, and agriculture, while shifts in extreme events will have an impact on the vulnerability of infrastructure and a range of economic sectors and services. Projections of the future course of events can help in advance planning and decision making in order to alleviate some of the more negative consequences of climate and hydrological impacts on key economic sectors in the region. This paper will thus discuss issues related to current and future water governance in the region, whether water-related policies are sufficiently robust today to cope with what may be rapid changes in water availability and water use in coming decades, and to resolve possible rivalries between economic sectors that may be increasingly confronted with problems of water availability at critical times of the year.     

核电厂人因事故预防的定量化决策

人因事故的分析与预防是核电厂安全运行和管理的重要内容。笔者提出的系统安全性层次分析法主要从两种角度考虑系统的安全性:专家能力权值和安全性矩阵的建立。采用专家判断矩阵确定事故原因对系统安全性的重要度排序。举例某核电厂事故定量分析进行说明,在对事故进行原因分析基础上,构建事故影响因素层次模型,利用层次分析法分析得出事故原因重要度排序由高到低依次为组织管理、操作人员、人机界面、培训与设备状态,并据此提出了相应的预防与改进措施,为安全性要求较高的复杂工业系统提供事故预防的定量化决策依据。     

Agricultural pesticide residues of farm runoff in the Okanagan Valley,British Columbia,Canada

The objectives of this study were to determine environmental occurrence and concentrations of selected currently-used-pesticides and some transformation products in agricultural farms in the Okanagan Valley (OKV), and to conduct a simple risk assessment of environmental pesticides levels detected in OKV on non-target aquatic organisms. The OKV is the tree fruit country of the Province of British Columbia where considerable amount of pesticides are applied annually. Water, sediment and soil samples were collected at eleven sites in early June and late September following rainfall events and/or extended periods of irrigation from drainage ditches and/or from small streams. Undisturbed reference sites were also sampled. Study results showed that forty of the eighty chemicals analyzed, including organochlorine, nitrogen-containing and organophosphate pesticides commonly used for OKV crops, were detected in runoff and small stream water samples. Among which, endosulfan-sulfate was the most frequently detected chemical. Also, azinophos-methyl (0.699–25.5 ng/L), diazinon (0.088–214 ng/L) exceeded, and α-, β- endosulfan, endosulfan sulphate approached the guidelines for the protection of aquatic life.     

A Structural Equation Model of Residents＇ Support for Mega Event

The aim of this article is to develop a structural equation model to assess key factors of residents' support for hosting mega event based on previous literature. The model consisted of five latent constructs and eight path hypotheses. A survey was conducted in Shanghai before 2010 World Expo. It was found that the support for mega events is affected directly and/or indirectly by four determinants factors: perceived benefits, perceived costs, personal benefits and community attachment, and support relies heavily on perceived benefits rather than costs. This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge in an attempt to understand local residents' support for a mega event in different economic and cultural settings.     

2006年7-8月国内环境事件

简要统计了2006年7-8月国内发生的各种环境事件218起,包括污染事件46起,地震20起,山体滑坡和泥石流41起,虫害12起,旱灾10起,以及其他自然灾害89起.对污染和自然灾害进行了讨论.     

2006年1-2月国内环境事件

简要统计了2006年1-2月国内发生的各种环境事件59起,包括沙尘天气2起,污染事件33起,地震7起,山体滑坡和泥石流3起,以及其他自然灾害14起.最后对环境污染进行了讨论.