长三角区域空气质量数值预报系统及其在重大活动保障中的应用

2014年起,上海市围绕城市及长三角区域空气质量预测预报和重污染预警需求,搭建了长三角区域空气质量数值预报系统。该系统综合应用了模式参数化方案比选、排放清单耦合处理、大气化学资料同化、大数据集合订正等关键技术,集合模式PM2. 5和O3小时浓度偏差为-10%~10%,提升了区域PM2. 5和O3浓度模拟效果。该系统实现了污染在线源解析和多排放情景模拟等功能的业务应用,应用于2018年首届中国国际进口博览会保障中,为上海市及长三角区域空气质量业务预报和重大活动保障提供了业务产品支撑。     

An imprecise Fault Tree Analysis for the estimation of the Rate of OCcurrence Of Failure (ROCOF)

The paper proposes an imprecise Fault Tree Analysis in order to characterize systems affected by the lack of reliability data. Differently from other research works, the paper introduces a classification of basic events into two categories, namely Initiators and Enablers. Actually, in real industrial systems some events refer to component failures or process parameter deviations from normal operating conditions (Initiators), whereas others refer to the functioning of safety barriers to be activated on demand (Enablers). As a consequence, the output parameter of interest is not the classical probability of occurrence of the top event, but its Rate of OCcurrence (ROCOF) over a stated period of time. In order to characterize the basic events, interval-valued information supplied by experts are properly aggregated and propagated to the top. To this purpose, the Dempster–Shafer Theory of evidence is proposed as a more appropriate mathematical framework than the classical probabilistic one. The proposed methodology, applied to a real industrial scenario, can be considered a helpful tool to support risk managers working in industrial plants.     

SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED MODELING OF STREAM FLOW DURING STORM EVENTS1

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach for the spatially distributed modeling of water flow during storm events. Distributed modeling of flow during storm events is an important basis for any environmental modeling, including turbidity or sediment transport. During the initial phase of a rainstorm, surface runoff is the main contributor of flow. To provide the spatial components for distributed hydrological modeling a Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to map and visualize contributing areas around a stream channel. Stream segments were defined using the hydrologic response unit (HRU) concept. Lateral flows were derived from GIS output for each segment of the stream and at each time interval of the rain storm and were routed using the kinematic routing equation. This approach is new in hydrological modeling and can be used to enhance many existing simulations. The model is also unique in the fine time scale (i.e., intervals are on the order of minutes). Model results showed good correlation with measured discharge values; however, further studies of contributing area behavior, its relationship with soil types and slope categories, and the influence of watershed size are needed to improve model performance. This model will be used in the future as the basis to model turbidity in streams.     

2019年3-4月国内环境事件

LI Sheng-cai;AN Ying(State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China)     

Injury risks for on-road farm equipment and horse and buggy crashes in Pennsylvania: 2010–2013

Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate characteristics associated with farm equipment and horse and buggy roadway crashes in relation to person, incident, and injury characteristics to identify appropriate points for injury incident prevention.

Methods: Information on crashes occurring on public roads during the years 2010–2013 was obtained from the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT) and analyzed.

Results: There were 344 farm equipment and 246 horse and buggy crashes during the 4-year study period. These crashes involved 666 and 504 vehicles and 780 and 838 people, respectively. In incidents with farm equipment, the non-farm equipment drivers had an almost 2 times greater injury risk than farm equipment operators. Horse and buggy crashes were almost 3 times more injurious to the horse and buggy drivers than the drivers of the other vehicles.

Conclusions: The average crash rate for farm equipment was 198.4 crashes per 100,000 farm population and for horse and buggy the crash rate was calculated as 89.4 crashes per 100,000 Amish population per year. This study suggests that road safety and public health programs should focus not only on farm equipment operators and horse and buggy drivers but on other motorists sharing the roadway with them.     

化工园区地震Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法

为有效评估地震灾害与化工园区工业事故的耦合风险,在分析地震灾害作用于化工园区致灾特征的基础上,理清化工园区的主要承灾体类型,辨识出地震破坏承灾体单元后引发的火灾、爆炸、中毒等工业事故的主要影响因素,采用层次分析法(AHP),提出综合考虑地震灾害与工业事故耦合作用的Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法。该方法以化工园区企业为评估单位,根据评估结果划定企业Na-Tech事件风险等级,并将此方法应用于某化工园区企业的风险评估。结果表明:该方法可操作性强,计算所需数据量小,且能有效反映地震Na-Tech事件风险特点。     

基于风险矢量图的多场景保护层分析方法研究*

为解决多场景保护层分析（LOPA）存在的问题,建立风险矢量导图,将事故场景、独立保护层、修正因子、事故后果发生频率等因素进行系统分析,分别采用最大值法求和法计算后果发生频率,探讨多重初始事件导致事故发生频率的最优计算方法;阐述点火源、暴露因子以及致死概率等修正因子的使用方法并提出改进建议,避免常规LOPA下致死概率过高的问题。以柴油加氢装置原料油缓冲罐液位过高风险点为例,进行多场景LOPA,应用综合计算法得出多重初始事件导致的液位高后果失效频率为3.2E-02。结果表明:风险矢量导图和正确使用修正因子可有效提高LOPA的质量;不同初始事件导致的场景失效频率值相差较大或存在共用保护层的情况适用最大值法,其他情况则可采用求和法;如果多场景同时适用最大值法和求和法,则采用综合计算法;求和法过于保守,最大值法过于乐观,综合计算法更为准确。     

Emergency medical preparedness during the 2006 World Cup in Frankfurt, Germany

This paper describes emergency medical preparedness during FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) World Cup matches in Frankfurt, Germany, in 2006. The methods employed were document analysis and personal observation of games over five days in June–July 2006. The medical authorities in Frankfurt drew on a wide range of scientific literature and experiences to elaborate a National Concept. They paid attention to different models of handling mass catastrophes in shaping the final version of the document. The participation of designated authorities, associations, and volunteer organisations was coordinated sufficiently and the games in Frankfurt proceeded without great incident, even though more than 300,000 people in total attended. The adopted emergency medical procedure was appropriate for a mass gathering event. Official and volunteer organisations collaborated precisely in emergency preparedness. While one uniform concept for all mass gatherings events cannot be developed, case reports and experiences are useful tools.     

AN ANALOG COMPUTER DEMONSTRATION OF DOUBLE-PEAKED INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPHS1

The properties of an instantaneous unit hydrograph model consisting of two cascades of linear reservoirs in parallel were explored with the aid of an analog computer. By proper choice of the model parameters it is possible to produce two-peaked instantaneous unit hydrographs. The relative magnitudes and locations of the two peaks can be varied by changing the values of the parameters. An example of the use of the analog computer to select the parameters of the model giving the best fit to an observed runoff hydrograph is also included. The analog computer used in the study was the ASTRAC II developed at the University of Arizona.     

沱江流域典型农业小流域氮和磷排放特征

小流域非点源污染氮和磷流失是河流水体污染的重要来源,而且氮和磷流失强度与气候、人为活动有密切的关系.因此,本文以长江上游沱江水系花椒沟小流域为研究对象,对小流域径流量、氮磷流失浓度以及流失量进行定位连续监测,结合降雨分析氮和磷输出变化特征及其响应过程.结果表明：①小流域2012年和2013年的7~9月径流量分别为10.05×10⁵ m³和3.34×10⁵ m³,分别占全年径流量的76.58%和56.51%,而且径流量与降雨量呈正相关关系;②铵态氮最大排放浓度在4~6月,2012年和2013年最高分别能够达到11.51 mg ·L^-1和4.44 mg ·L^-1,流失风险期为4~7月,2012年和2013年流失量分别占全年流失量的78.45%和62.24%;总氮、硝态氮最大排放浓度、流失风险期都为7~9月,硝态氮为总氮的最主要排放形式,2012年和2013年硝态氮最大排放浓度分别为6.06 mg ·L^-1和11.43 mg ·L^-1,7~9月流失量分别占全年流失量的88.74%和65.55%;③总磷、可溶性总磷和颗粒态磷流失风险期为7~9月,颗粒态磷为总磷最主要的排放形式,2012年和2013年7~9月流失量占全年流失的36%和68%,且总磷中颗粒态磷的比例会受到降雨的影响.