AN ANALOG COMPUTER DEMONSTRATION OF DOUBLE-PEAKED INSTANTANEOUS UNIT HYDROGRAPHS1

The properties of an instantaneous unit hydrograph model consisting of two cascades of linear reservoirs in parallel were explored with the aid of an analog computer. By proper choice of the model parameters it is possible to produce two-peaked instantaneous unit hydrographs. The relative magnitudes and locations of the two peaks can be varied by changing the values of the parameters. An example of the use of the analog computer to select the parameters of the model giving the best fit to an observed runoff hydrograph is also included. The analog computer used in the study was the ASTRAC II developed at the University of Arizona.     

EFFECT OF RAINFALL EXCESS CALCULATIONS ON MODELED HYDROGRAPH ACCURACY AND UNIT-HYDROGRAPH PARAMETERS1

ABSTRACT: Two methods of computing rainfall excess in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’flood hydrograph package (HEC-1), the Initial and Uniform method and the Exponential method, are compared to evaluate the effects on modeled hydrograph accuracy. Two computed unit-hydrograph parameters, time of concentration and storage coefficient, were also compared. Rainfall and runoff data from 209 storms in 32 gaged basins in Illinois were used to calibrate the HEC-1 model. Three hydrograph characteristics - sum of incremental flows, peak discharge, and time of peak discharge - were used to evaluate modeled hydrograph accuracy. Mean percent error for each basin and hydrograph characteristic was computed. An evaluation of the mean errors indicates that, although some bias in modeled hydrograph accuracy is evident, rainfall excess computed using either method results in a computed hydrograph accuracy that is within generally accepted limits. Application of a linear-regression model shows no significant differences in computed values of unit-hydrograph parameters.     

FLOOD EVENT MODELING - A STUDY OF TWO METHODS1

: Despite the advances in catchment modeling in recent years, engineers still face major problems in estimating flood flows. Application of unit hydrograph and runoff routing models to five United Kingdom catchments shows that either can be tuned to predict, on a test event, the routing effects of a catchment with equal accuracy. The larger remaining problem is the prediction of losses from rainfall and this study shows how alternative ways of describing the within event distribution of these losses can be an important factor controlling the success of the overall model. Other problems include the risks of extrapolation to larger events, baseflow separation methods, rainfall patterns, and inevitable errors in the data.     

沱江流域典型农业小流域氮和磷排放特征

小流域非点源污染氮和磷流失是河流水体污染的重要来源,而且氮和磷流失强度与气候、人为活动有密切的关系.因此,本文以长江上游沱江水系花椒沟小流域为研究对象,对小流域径流量、氮磷流失浓度以及流失量进行定位连续监测,结合降雨分析氮和磷输出变化特征及其响应过程.结果表明：①小流域2012年和2013年的7~9月径流量分别为10.05×10⁵ m³和3.34×10⁵ m³,分别占全年径流量的76.58%和56.51%,而且径流量与降雨量呈正相关关系;②铵态氮最大排放浓度在4~6月,2012年和2013年最高分别能够达到11.51 mg ·L^-1和4.44 mg ·L^-1,流失风险期为4~7月,2012年和2013年流失量分别占全年流失量的78.45%和62.24%;总氮、硝态氮最大排放浓度、流失风险期都为7~9月,硝态氮为总氮的最主要排放形式,2012年和2013年硝态氮最大排放浓度分别为6.06 mg ·L^-1和11.43 mg ·L^-1,7~9月流失量分别占全年流失量的88.74%和65.55%;③总磷、可溶性总磷和颗粒态磷流失风险期为7~9月,颗粒态磷为总磷最主要的排放形式,2012年和2013年7~9月流失量占全年流失的36%和68%,且总磷中颗粒态磷的比例会受到降雨的影响.     

中国未来极端降水事件的变化——基于气候变化预估结果的分析

利用区域气候模式PRECIS单向嵌套Hadley气候中心海-气耦合模式HadCM3高分辨率的大气部分HadAM3P,分别进行了气候基准时段(1961—1990年)和2080 s时段(2071—2100年)中国区域各30年时间长度的模拟试验,以分析PRECIS对当代中国区域极端降水事件的模拟能力和SRES B2情景下2080s时段相对于气候基准时段中国区域极端降水事件的可能变化趋势。气候基准时段模拟结果与观测值的对比分析表明:PRECIS能够较好地模拟出中国区域年平均极端降水事件的空间分布特征,但模式模拟的大雨事件和湿日数高值区范围较观测值偏大,对华南地区暴雨事件和日最大降水事件的模拟结果较观测值偏低。SRES B2情景下,2080s时段年平均大雨事件除东北和华南地区外,全国均呈增多趋势。暴雨事件在西部地区以减少为主,而东部地区主要呈增加趋势。年平均日最大降水事件的分布型与大雨事件基本一致。湿日数除华北、西北和青藏高原部分地区外均呈减少趋势。未来长江流域洪涝灾害事件发生的频率将可能增大。     

建立突发公共事件应急机制的探讨

本文根据我国目前公共安全的现状、问题与经验,提出了建立健全应急机制的指导思想和工作原则,并根据突发公共事件的分类、分级,探讨了建立和完善突发公共事件的应急体制、机制和法制的途径和方法.     

海安地区近1000年来的气候变化与洪灾

对海安地区史志资料作了搜集与整理,利用Mann-Kendall法对该区1951年以来汛期总量与夏季最高温作了突变检测分析,以对该区近1000年来洪旱灾害的发生规律做一探讨.结果表明,小冰期时期湿润与波动剧烈的气候条件是研究区频繁发生水灾的一个重要因素,同时研究区地势低平,极易遭受水灾、热带风暴及海潮涨溢的影响.MK突变检验表明,研究区汛期总量的突变发生时间大致在20世纪60年代中期,而历年夏季最高温序列在20世纪90年代中期发生突变,具体时间大致在1993年左右.汛期总量在20世纪90年代以前呈波动下降趋势,但在其后汛期径流量又呈上升趋势;夏季最高温在20世纪90年代以前呈波动下降趋势,而在其后呈波动上升趋势,夏季最高温与汛期总量变化趋势相一致.夏季极端高温事件发生概率的增大可能导致洪灾事件的增多,因而在未来气候持续变暖的情景下,研究区乃至长江下游防洪抗灾任重而道远.     

Environmental Conditions of Dust Events in Northern China during 2000–2001

To investigate the large-scale environmental conditions of duststorms occurring in Northern China, a synoptic situation of tendust events in Northern China during 2000–2001 was composed andits dynamic features were identified. The composite synoptic situation showed that the occurrence of the ten dust events was associated with the eastward movement of a strong cold high fromMongolia, and the development of a cyclone in Northeast China, which caused the pressure gradient to intensify considerably in Northern China. The upper level circulation revealed that a 500 hPa trough developed rapidly above Northern China, and diagnosis showed that composite ascending motion was pronouncedabove the Siberian district. The change of vertical motion in themiddle and low troposphere above Mongolia was also related to theoccurrence of the ten dust events. When the descendingcurrent, 12 hr before the occurrence, was completely replacedby the ascending current, the instable atmospheric stratificationof the lower troposphere enabled dry dust to be transported from the surface to high altitudes toward Northern China.     

2002年我国十大极端气候事件

2002年我国气象灾害发生频繁，特别是在1999-2001年连续少雨大旱之后，又发生了较大范围的干旱。另外，暖冬、高温、暴雨洪涝、低温阴雨以及暴雪等影响也较大。本文利用我中心气候业务系统所得资料，对我国极端气候事件作一综合评述。     

Resilience in practice: Five principles to enable societies to cope with extreme weather events

The concept of resilience is used by many in different ways: as a scientific concept, as a guiding principle, as inspirational ‘buzzword’, or as a means to become more sustainable. Next to the academic debate on meaning and notions of resilience, the concept has been widely adopted and interpreted in policy contexts, particularly related to climate change and extreme weather events. In addition to having a positive connotation, resilience may cover aspects that are missed in common disaster risk management approaches. Although the precise definition of resilience may remain subject of discussion, the views on what is important to consider in the management of extreme weather events do not differ significantly. Therefore, this paper identifies the key implications of resilience thinking for the management of extreme weather events and translates these into five practical principles for policy making.