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61.
ABSTRACT: The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type HI analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant. Comparison of regression-estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years (1966 to 1985) and 10 years (1976 to 1985) of record at different sites of annual peak record indicate that the regression-estimates are not significantly different from the observed data. Comparison of rainfall-runoff-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 10 years and 20 years of annual peak record indicated that the model-simulated estimates are significantly and not significantly different, respectively. The biasedness probably is due to a “loss of variance” in the averaging procedures used within the model and the short length of record as indicated in the 10 and 20 years of record. The comparison of map-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years of annual-peak runoff indicate that the simulated estimates are not significantly different. Comparison of “improved” map-model simulated estimates with observed discharges for sites having 20 years of annual-peak runoff data indicate that the simulated estimates are different. The average adjustment factor suggested by Lichty and Liscum to calculate the “improved” map-model overestimates in Georgia by an average of 20 percent for three recurrence intervals analyzed. 相似文献
62.
Corrado Corradini Florisa Melone Lucio Ubertini 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(6):1031-1038
ABSTRACT: A semi-distributed deterministic model for real-time flood forecasting in large basins is proposed. Variability of rainfall and losses in space is preserved and the effective rainfall-direct runoff model segment based on the Clark procedure is incorporated. The distribution of losses in space is assumed proportional to rainfall intensity and their evolution in time is represented by the φ-index; furthermore, an initial period without production of effective rainfall is considered. The first estimation of losses and the associated forecasts of flow are performed at the time corresponding to the first rise observed in the hydrograph. Then the forecasts of flow are corrected at each subsequent time step through the updating of the φ-index. The model was tested by using rainfall-runoff events observed on two Italian basins and the predictions of flow for lead times up to six hours agree reasonably well with the observations in each event. For example, for the coefficient of persistence, which compares the model forecasts with those generated by the no-model assumption, appreciable positive values were computed. In particular, for the larger basin with an area of 4,147 km2, the mean values were 0.4, 0.4 and 0.5 for forecast lead times of two hours, four hours and six hours, respectively. Good performance of the model is also shown by a comparison of its flow predictions with those derived from a unit hydrograph based model 相似文献
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2018年夏季上海合作组织成员国元首理事会环境空气质量保障工作开始前,中国监测总站对山东、江苏2个省份19个城市共计85个国控站点开展O3专项质控工作。结果表明,保障区域O3监测数据低、中、高浓度点相对误差变异系数分别为4. 7%、4. 3%和4. 8%,95%预测区间分别为[-7. 4%,9. 0%]、[-6. 9%,8. 3%]和[-8. 0%,8. 4%]。与之相比,2018年全国范围内开展外部比对的1 346个国控站点O3监测数据低、中、高浓度点相对误差变异系数分别为7. 4%、6. 5%和6. 2%,95%预测区间分别为[-13. 1%,15. 4%]、[-11. 7%,13. 2%]和[-11. 6%,12. 2%]。通过专项质控工作,保障区域O3监测数据质量明显提升,能够为夏季重大活动保障提供更为准确、可比的O3监测数据支持。 相似文献
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气候异常与中国小麦白粉病灾害流行关系的研究 总被引:16,自引:3,他引:16
分析了厄尔尼诺事件与我国冬小麦白粉病发病面积的相关关系。结果表明:在厄尔尼诺出现的起始年,冬小麦白粉病发病面积相对较小;在厄尔诺起始年至下一个厄尔诺起始年前的前一年,冬小麦白粉病发病面积趋势逐年增大,并在下一个厄尔尼诺起始年前一年达到最大值;在连续出现厄尔尼诺的年份,冬小麦白粉病发生面积逐年降低。厄尔尼诺事件通过引发主要麦区的诱水、温度异常来影响小麦白粉病的流行程度。造成厄尔尼诺年我国小麦白粉病发病面向相对较低的原因,与厄尔尼诺起始年前的冬半年寒潮活动加强造成冬小麦冻害严重,大大降低了小麦白粉菌的越冬基数及春季干旱不利于小麦白粉菌的侵染有关。 相似文献
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Ian Christoplos Le Duc Ngoan Le Thi Hoa Sen Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong Lily Salloum Lindegaard 《Disasters》2017,41(3):448-467
How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate‐ and disaster‐related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high‐risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined. 相似文献
70.
自1997年在死海地区的大气边界层中观测到午间臭氧浓度迅速下降的现象后,研究学者们即对该地区的臭氧耗损现象(ozone depletion events,简称ODEs)展开了研究.而在此之前,大气边界层内的ODEs现象普遍被认为只会发生在极地地区的特殊大气现象.本文综述了关于死海地区ODEs研究的发展历史,主要展示了促... 相似文献