基于区域气候模式CCLM的中国极端降水事件预估

选用中国气象局国家气候中心由逐日观测资料插值而成的格点化观测数据集,评估了区域气候模式COSMO-CLM(CCLM)对中国极端降水的模拟能力,并对2016—2050年中国极端降水事件进行预估。文中主要采用强度-面积-持续时间(Intensity-Area-Duration,IAD)方法,识别了既定时间尺度下具有一定强度和影响面积的极端降水事件,分析未来中国极端降水事件的特征和变化趋势,结果表明:1)区域气候模式CCLM对中国极端降水的空间分布和变化趋势均有较强的模拟能力;2)2016—2050年中国极端降水事件整体呈增加趋势,RCP 8.5情景下变化更为显著,事件强度更大;3)未来不同情景下,均有可能发生强度或影响面积超过基准期最大值的事件,其中影响面积大的事件多发生在华北和东北,强度大的事件多发生在西南和华南。     

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004–08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.     

我国环境事件生发机理的Logistics回归分析

以近年来我国发生的有影响力的100个环境事件为研究对象,通过多元Logistics回归方法。利用环境污染生境、污染主体特征、污染物特征、对象敏感性、社会敏感性、治理难度和治理效果7类变量23类观测指标解析了影响环境事件发生的显著因素。以此为基础,分别给出了控制和预防大概率小损失、大概率大损失、小概率小损失和小概率大损失环境事件发生的政策建议。     

城市降雨径流污染模拟的水质参数局部灵敏度分析

在城市降雨径流污染模拟研究中,参数灵敏度分析是进行模型率定和验证的必要研究环节,同时也是理解非点源污染产生和变化过程及进行城市降雨径流污染管理的重要参考.运用修正的摩尔斯分类筛选法(Morris screening method)对暴雨管理模型(Storm Water Management Model,简称SWMM)的水质参数进行局部灵敏度分析.研究结果显示,占区域比例较大的不透水地表的累积和冲刷参数灵敏度较高;在强降雨过程中,降雨中污染物浓度的灵敏度较高.研究表明,对占区域比例较大的不透水地表的累积和冲刷参数进行仔细识别,对于非点源污染模型的验证具有重要意义;强降雨时雨水本底浓度的测量误差会影响降雨径流污染模拟的准确度.     

2006年11-12月国内环境事件

简要统计了2006年11-12月国内发生的各种环境事件57起,包括污染事件35起,地震7起,山体滑坡和泥石流3起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害7起.对污染事件和自然灾害进行了讨论.     

2007年3-4月国内环境事件

简要统计了2007年3-4月国内发生的各种环境事件90起,包括沙尘天气17起,污染事件26起,地震11起,山体滑坡和泥石流11起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害20起.对自然灾害进行了讨论.     

Pollutant loads of surface runo inWuhan City Zoo, an urban tourist area

The pollutant loads of surface runoff in an urban tourist area have been investigated for two years in the Wuhan City Zoo, China. Eight sampling sites, including two woodlands, three animal yards, two roofs and one road, were selected for sampling and study. The results indicate that pollutants ranked in a predictable order of decreasing load （e.g. animal yard〉roof〉woodland〉road）, with animal yards acting as the key pollution source in the zoo. Pollutants were transported mainly by particulate form in runoff. Particulate nitrogen and particulate phosphorous accounted on average for 61%, 78% of total pollutant, respectively, over 13 monitored rainfall events. These results indicate the treatment practices should be implemented to improve particulate nutrient removal. Analysis of the M（V） curve indicate that no first flush effect existed in the surface runoff from pervious areas （e.g. woodland, animal ground yard）, whereas a first flush effect was evident in runoff from impervious surfaces （e.g. animal cement yard, roof, road）.     

岩溶流域地下水TOC输出及影响因素分析:以重庆丰都雪玉洞地下河流域为例

2014年8月至2015年9月通过野外在线监测获取岩溶流域连续、高精度的气象、地下水TOC和水文地球化学等数据,利用主成分回归模型探讨流域地下水TOC在不同时间尺度上的输出及影响因素.结果表明在季节时间尺度上,气温和地下水电导率(Sp C)夏季高,冬季低,p H则相反;TOC和浊度冬、夏季高,春、秋季低;地下水TOC和水文地球化学指标对降雨表现出明显的响应过程,但地下水TOC对不同降雨强度的响应时间和过程有明显差异,整体来说,TOC在降雨过程中表现出上升的趋势,而暴雨过后受稀释效应影响呈现下降趋势.主成分回归分析发现降雨、流量和浊度对TOC有正向促进作用,而气温和p H对TOC有负向的影响.     

合流制管网溢流污染过程中溶解性有机污染物演替特征分析

合流制管网溢流（Combined Sewer Overflows,CSOs）是我国城镇地表水环境日益突出的瞬时污染源,明确其重要污染物溶解性有机质（Dissolved Organic Matter,DOM）的组分和来源对CSOs污染控制具有导向性意义.本研究以北运河上游沙河水库流域为对象,连续采集CSOs过程的样品,通过峰值法、特征参数法和平行因子法等解析CSOs中DOM的三维荧光光谱特征,发现CSOs中DOM主要有类色氨酸（S、T）、类富里酸（A）和类酪氨酸（D）,代表内源输入的类色氨酸（S、T）和类酪氨酸（D）占比超过4/5.特征参数法和平行因子法的结果均表明DOM的腐殖化程度较低,生物活性较强,主要为微生物降解生成的和沉积物自身在冲刷和水力输运作用下释放的内源污染,建议CSOs污染控制主要应从内源输入的角度进行,着重控制管道沉积物中污染物的释放.     

Transformation of rural communities: lessons from a local self-initiative for building resilience in the Solomon Islands

Solomon Islands is vulnerable to negative impacts from climate change, where people’s livelihoods and their well-being are threatened, especially the viability of isolated communities. Realising the increasing risks from climate change on communities, government, in partnership with aid-donor partners, has invested millions of dollars in climate change projects, through mitigation and adaptation strategies. As a form of adaptation, the government invests in programmes aimed at increasing the adaptive capacity of the vulnerable communities through landscape and seascape projects across the rural communities. Focusing on the “transformation concept” as a long-term adaptation strategy and enlargement of climate engineering and ecological resilience concepts, the paper discusses why building resilience from transformation of rural communities, as well as from landscape and seascape projects, would benefit communities and relevant authorities. This paper describes the findings of a study on two rural villages, Keigold and Mondo, from Ranogha Islands, Western Province, in Solomon Islands, where 80% of households decided to relocate from their old village “Mondo” to their new home “Keigold” after an earthquake in 2007, as part of a self-initiative. The reallocation process can be seen as a case of pro-active community transformation that provides valuable lessons to other rural communities that may be forced to move due to impacts from natural catastrophes, including those explained by climate change risks. Lessons from this experience suggest that policy-makers and non-government organisations should consider and empower local transformation initiatives as a way to building long-term adaptation to climate change.