FIELD SCALE MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION MAKING: A CASE STUDY FROM WESTERN IOWA1

ABSTRACT: Water quality issues in agriculture are growing in importance. A common theme is the provision of better information to decision makers. This study reports the trial of a prototype decision support system by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service and the Agricultural Research Service in the NRCS Harrison County Field Office in 1998. Observed data collected at the Deep Loess Research Station (DLRS) near Treynor, Iowa, were extrapolated using a modified GLEAMS field scale simulation model that included a nitrogen leaching component and a crop growth component. An accounting tool was used to convert crop yield estimates into crop budgets. A model interface was built to specify the climate, soil, and topography of the field, as well as the management scenarios for the alternative management systems. For the Deep Loess Hills area of Harrison County, a total of six soil and slope groups, with 66 total combinations of management practices forming management systems, were defined and simulated based on previously calibrated data from DLRS. A multi‐objective decision support system, the Water Quality Decision Support System, or WQDSS, was used to examine the tradeoffs in a comprehensive set of variables affected by alternative management systems with farmers in Harrison County. The study concluded that a multiobjective decision support system should be developed to support conservation planning by the NRCS. Currently, a larger scale effort to improve water quality decision making is underway.     

FOREST GROWTH IMPACT ON PEAK SNOW PACK MEASUREMENTS AT LONG TERM SNOW COURSES1

ABSTRACT: Snow course surveys in late winter provide stream‐flow forecasters with their best information for making water supply and flood forecasts for the subsequent spring and summer runoff period in mountainous regions of western North America. Snow survey data analyses are generally based on a 30‐year “normal” period. It is well documented that forest cover changes over time will affect snow accumulation on the ground within forests. This paper seeks to determine if forest cover changes over decades at long term snow courses decrease measured peak snow water equivalent (SWE) enough to affect runoff prediction. Annual peak SWE records were analyzed at four snow courses in two different forest types having at least 25 years of snowpack data to detect any decreases in SWE due to forest growth. No statistically significant decreases in annual peak SWE over time were found at any of these four snow courses. The wide range of annual winter precipitation and correspondingly highly variable peak snowpack accumulation, as well as many other weather and site variables, masked any minor trends in the data.     

GEOCHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF SHALLOW GROUND WATER IN THE EUTAW AQUIFER,MONTGOMERY, ALABAMA1

ABSTRACT: Ground water samples were collected from 30 wells located in, or directly down gradient from, recharge areas of the Eutaw aquifer in Montgomery, Alabama. The major ion content of the water evolves from calcium‐sodium‐chloride‐dominated type in the recharge area to calcium‐bicarbonate‐dominated type in the confined portion of the aquifer. Ground water in the recharge area was under saturated with respect to aluminosilicate and carbonate minerals. Ground water in the confined portion of the aquifer was at equilibrium levels for calcite and potassium feldspar. Dissolved oxygen and nitrite‐plus‐nitrate concentrations decreased as ground water age increased; pH, iron, and sulfate concentrations increased as ground water age increased. Aluminum, copper, and zinc concentrations decreased as ground water age and pH increased. These relations indicate that nitrate, aluminum, copper, and zinc are removed from solution as water moves from recharge areas to the confined areas of the Eutaw aquifer. The natural evolution of ground water quality, which typically increases the pH and decreases the dissolved oxygen content, may be an important limiting factor to the migration of nitrogen based compounds and metals.     

ESTIMATING NUTRIENT AND SEDIMENT THRESHOLD CRITERIA FOR BIOLOGICAL IMPAIRMENT IN PENNSYLVANIA WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: This study employs a simple nonlinear statistical approach to establish nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentration and unit area load thresholds to aid in the evaluation of aquatic biological health of watersheds within the state of Pennsylvania. Flow, nitrogen and phosphorus species, sediment, basin area, land cover, and biological assessment data were assembled for 29 Pennsylvania watersheds. For each watershed, rating curves depicting flow versus load relationships were developed using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) storage and retrieval database (STORET) flow and concentration data, then applied to daily flow data obtained from U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) daily flow gauging stations to estimate daily load between 1989 and 1999. The load estimates and concentration data were then sorted into six sets of data: mean annual unit area nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads; and average nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment concentrations. Results of Mann‐Whitney tests conducted on each of the six datasets indicate that there is a statistically significant difference between the concentrations and unit area loads of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment in impaired and unimpaired watersheds. Concentration thresholds, calculated as the midpoint between the impaired and unimpaired watersheds’ 95 percent confidence interval for the median, were estimated to be 2.01 mg/L, 0.07 mg/L, and 197.27 mg/L for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment, respectively. Annual unit area load thresholds were estimated to be equal to 8.64 kg/ha, 0.30 kg/ha, and 785.29 kg/ha, respectively, for nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment species.     

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF SURFACE RUNOFF IN AN URBANIZING WATERSHED USING SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: This paper demonstrates how satellite image data [e.g., from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM)], in conjunction with an urban growth model and simple runoff calculations, can be used to estimate future surface runoff and, by implication, water quality within a watershed. To illustrate the method, predictions of land use change and surface runoff are shown for Spring Creek Watershed, a medium sized urbanizing watershed in Central Pennsylvania. Land cover classifications for this watershed were created from images for summertime 1986 and 1996 and subsequently used as input to the Clarke urban growth model, called SLEUTH, to predict land use changes to the year 2025. Simulations with this model show a progressive growth in the percentage of urban pixels and in impervious surface area in the watershed but also an increase in woodland, primarily in previously clear‐cut areas. Given that woodland area will continue to increase in area, surface runoff into Spring Creek is predicted to remain only slightly above present level. However, should the woodland amount fail to increase, surface runoff is then predicted to increase more significantly during the next 25 years. Finally, the concept of urban sprawl is addressed within the context of predicted increases in urbanization by relating the implied increase in impervious surface area to population density within the watershed.     

APPLICATION OF THE RHESSys MODEL TO A CALIFORNIA SEMIARID SHRUBLAND WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Distributed hydrologic models which link seasonal streamflow and soil moisture patterns with spatial patterns of vegetation are important tools for understanding the sensitivity of Mediterranean type ecosystems to future climate and land use change. RHESSys (Regional Hydro‐Ecologic Simulation System) is a coupled spatially distributed hydroecological model that is designed to be able to represent these feedbacks between hydrologic and vegetation carbon and nutrient cycling processes. However, RHESSys has not previously been applied to semiarid shrubland watersheds. In this study, the hydrologic submodel of RHESSys is evaluated by comparing model predictions of monthly and annual streamflow to stream gage data and by comparing RHESSys behavior to that of another hydrologic model of similar complexity, MIKESHE, for a 34 km² watershed near Santa Barbara, California. In model intercomparison, the differences in predictions of temporal patterns in streamflow, sensitivity of model predictions to calibration parameters and landscape representation, and differences in model estimates of soil moisture patterns are explored. Results from this study show that both models adequately predict seasonal patterns of streamflow response relative to observed data, but differ significantly in terms of estimates of soil moisture patterns and sensitivity of those patterns to the scale of landscape tessellation used to derive spatially distributed elements. This sensitivity has implications for implementing RHESSys as a tool to investigate interactions between hydrology and ecosystem processes.     

基于GIS的数字化水文过程模拟研究

在传统水文模型中，一般只能通过降水、蒸发、下渗、气温的输入模拟流量的变化，流域下垫面因素对径流的影响在径流模型中视为“灰箱”。地理信息系统技术的引入。把地面空间特性数字化。利用地形图。土壤分布图、土地利用图、土湿等资料模拟下垫面的地质地貌，把河道、流域的土壤植被等地理因素数字化应用到产汇流理论中。“灰箱”变为“白箱”。为流域研究提供了一种新的思维方法。     

HERBICIDES AND TRANSFORMATION PRODUCTS IN SURFACE WATERS OF THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: Most herbicides applied to crops are adsorbed by plants or transformed (degraded) in the soil, but small fractions are lost from fields and either move to streams in overland runoff, near surface flow, or subsurface drains, or they infiltrate slowly to ground water. Herbicide transformation products (TPs) can be more or less mobile and more or less toxic in the environment than their source herbicides. To obtain information on the concentrations of selected herbicides and TPs in surface waters of the Midwestern United States, 151 water samples were collected from 71 streams and five reservoir outflows in 1998. These samples were analyzed for 13 herbicides and 10 herbicide TPs. Herbicide TPs were found to occur as frequently or more frequently than source herbicides and at concentrations that were often larger than their source herbicides. Most samples contained a mixture of more than 10 different herbicides or TPs. The ratios of TPs to herbicide concentrations can be used to determine the source of herbicides in streams. Results of a two‐component mixing model suggest that on average 90 percent or more of the herbicide mass in Midwestern streams during early summer runoff events originates from the runoff and 10 percent or less comes from increased ground water discharge.     

EDWARDS AQUIFER EVALUATION: KINNEY COUNTY,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: The Edwards Aquifer is one of the most studied and most prolific aquifers in the United States. The aquifer is a heavily fractured and faulted carbonate aquifer with transmissivities in excess of 100 ft²/s. The City of San Antonio relies upon the Edwards Aquifer as its sole source for water. Much work has been done on quantifying recharge to the aquifer and discharge from wells and acquiring aquifer characteristics from pumping tests, specific capacity tests, and geophysical logs. Although the aquifer has been well studied in Bexar County, much less is known about the Edwards Aquifer in Kinney County. This is partly due to the lower population within the county (approximately 3,500 people) relative to the eastern counties (Uvalde, Medina, Bexar, Comal, and Hays) and the great distance of Kinney County from high profile discharge areas such as the City of San Antonio and Comal and San Marcos Springs. Three key products resulted from this study: (1) exploratory well drilling and the largest aquifer test in the county that were conducted to evaluate the well yields within a 10,000 acre study area in which a drawdown of 2.5 ft approximately 1.2 miles away was observed while pumping at approximately 4,600 gpm; (2) a recharge estimate for the Edwards Aquifer within Kinney County of approximately 71,382 ac‐ft/yr; and (3) locating the Brackettville Groundwater Divide from an evaluation of ground water flow direction and hydrograph analysis. These results help evaluate the complex hydraulics occurring within Kinney County and aid in development of ground water modeling that will be used in managing the Edwards Aquifer.