我国农业水旱灾害的时间分布及重灾年景趋势预测

分析了我国 1970～ 1999年农业水旱灾害的时间分布特征。分析结果表明 :在研究时段内 ,我国农业自然灾害总体上呈增长态势。该时段可划分为两个明显的阶段 :80年代中期以前 ,总灾、水灾及旱灾对农业生产的危害较轻 ;80年代中期之后 ,呈现出影响范围广、损失增大的趋势 ,重灾年份明显增加。旱灾和水灾是威胁我国农业生产最为严重的自然灾害 ,尤以旱灾为甚。我国农业遭受旱灾威胁的范围多年基本不变 ,而旱灾受灾率波动明显 ,成灾率逐年增长 ,这与近几年农田水利设施建设缓慢、灌溉能力降低有关 ;水灾受灾率和成灾率具有特别显著的同步特点 ,表明水灾致灾能力强 ,一旦发生 ,极易成灾 ,水灾危害加剧与防洪、抗洪能力低下及生态环境恶化有关。各灾种的受灾率和成灾率呈正相关关系 ,表明我国农业生产系统的抗灾能力总体上较弱。　　本文还用灰色系统理论的建模方法 ,建立了农业总受灾率 -总成灾率、水灾受灾率 -成灾率、旱灾受灾率 -成灾率的重灾年景灰色灾变GM(1,1)预测模型 ,对未来 10年我国农业灾害趋势进行了预测分析。灰色预测结果表明 ,2 0 10年之前 ,除 2 0 0 3,2 0 0 6年水旱灾害危害较小外 ,其它年份均为灾情严重年份 ,其受灾率和成灾率均高于近 30年的平均水平。其中 ,2 0 0 4 ,2 0 0 7年将为水灾重     

Not by nutrients alone: a call to broaden the soil fertility initiative

The article discusses agricultural practices in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in terms of maintaining soil fertility. It disagrees with alarmist tendencies in the current debate, exaggerating the state of soil impoverishment in the African region. Nor does it subscribe to the idea that the remedy lies primarily in a massive influx of chemical fertilisers, especially phosphorus.
Instead, the article advocates a more balanced approach, where soil nutrient replenishment, as an improvement in natural capital, is but one part of the investment African agriculture needs. To achieve sustainable rural livelihoods, other forms of capital are also required, such as physical capital, i.e. infrastructure (roads, means of communication); financial capital in the form of credit and savings schemes; and human- and social capital, especially improved access to information and knowledge for farmers as well as improved local organisation and empowerment.
The article reviews nine case studies, taken from different climate zones in the region and representing different soil conditions. All case studies were projects using the participatory learning and action research (PLAR) method, which is discussed in detail.     

转变观念,面向市场,提高农业综合开发整体水平

在计划经济体制下.农业不是也不可能成为一个独立产业,其结果只能是社会效益可观、经济效益甚微甚至倒贴,吃苦的是农民。社会主义市场经济体制的逐步确立,为农业走向市场带来了希望,首要的是确立市场经济观念。丘陵地区大搞农业资源的综合开发是使农业走向市场的重要途径,综合开发上了水平,实现“三高”农业就大有希望。搞农业综合开发的途径很多,但都必须以市场为导向、科技为先导、经济效益为中心,大搞农业产加销一条龙、贸工农一体化是提高农业综合开发整体水平、实现“三高”农业的必要途径。     

“白色农业”与“三色农业”兴起及中国农业产业化方向

本文从白色农业与三色农业概念入手,阐述了白色农业的创新意义,提出了我国农业产业化的战略构想。     

Sustainable Agriculture: New Paradigms and Old Practices? Increased Production with Management of Organic Inputs in Senegal

Farmers in Sahelian countries are confronted with a variety of soil fertility and management problems. During the last two decades, NGOs have worked with farmers and research institutions to develop and test practices that will increase food production, while at the same time enhance the natural resource base.Since 1987, The Rodale Institute (RI) has worked closely with farmers' associations and government institutions to promote regenerative agriculture-farming systems that prioritize the use of local resources while improving them as they are used to grow food, using agro-ecological methods. The Senegalese Agricultural Research Institute has collaborated in this program as a partner of RI. The Senegal Regenerative Agriculture Resource Center model has been applied as a new and viable approach that builds on traditional knowledge and farmer-to-farmer exchange.Research results on soil conservation and improvement have shown that fields spread with amended animal manure or compost yield greater harvests than fields farmed with traditional methods.     

Applying Agroecology to Enhance the Productivity of Peasant Farming Systems in Latin America

The great majority of farmers in Latin America are peasants who still farm small plots of land, usually in marginal environments utilizing traditional and subsistence methods. The contribution of the 16 million peasant units to regional food security is, however, substantial. Research has shown that peasant systems, which mostly rely on local resources and complex cropping patterns, are reasonably productive despite their land endowments and low use of external inputs. Moreover analysis of NGO-led agroecological initiatives show that traditional crop and animal systems can be adapted to increase productivity by biologically re-structuring peasant farms which in turn leads to optimization of key agroecosystem processes (nutrient cycling, organic matter accumulation, biological pest regulation, etc.) and efficient use of labor and local resources. Examples of such grassroots projects are herein described to show that agroecological approaches can offer opportunities to substantially increase food production while preserving the natural resource base and empowering rural communities.     

NEW STRATEGIES FOR AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA''''S MOUNTAIN AREAS

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Traditional Land-Use Systems and Patterns of Forest Fragmentation in the Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico

The influence of slash-and-burn agriculture and tree extraction on the spatial and temporal pattern of forest fragmentation in two municipalities in the highlands of Chiapas, Mexico was analyzed. The data series were derived from two subsets of satellite images taken in 1974 and 1996. The analysis was based on area, edge, shape, core area, and neighbor indices. During the 22 years, the dense forest decreased by 8.9%/yr in Huistán and by 8.6%/yr in Chanal, while open/disturbed forest, secondary vegetation, and developed area increased in both municipalities. The total number of fragments increased by 1.4%/yr and 2.3%/yr in Huistán and Chanal, respectively. Dense forest showed the highest increase in the number of fragments (6%/yr in Huistán and 12%/yr in Chanal), while edge length, core area, and number of dense forest core areas decreased. The larger fragments of dense forest present in 1974 were divided into smaller fragments in 1996; at the same time, they experienced a process of degradation toward open/disturbed forest and secondary vegetation. Two different fragmentation patterns could be distinguished based on agricultural or forestry activities. Forest fragmentation did not occur as a continuous process; the pattern and degree of fragmentation were functions of land tenure, environmental conditions, and productive activities. The prevalence of rather poor soil conditions, small-holdings, growing human population densities, increasing poverty, and the absence of alternative economic options will maintain a high rate of deforestation and forest fragmentation in the studied region.     

WASTE WATER REUSE IN PHOENIX-HOW VIABLE IS IT?1

ABSTRACT: The Phoenix metropolitan area has a unique combination of circumstances which makes it one of the prime areas in the Nation for waste water reuse. Overriding all of these conditions is the long-term inadequacy of the existing water supplies. The Salt River Valley has a ground water overdraft of about 700,000 acre feet per year. To help alleviate this situation, the Corps of Engineers in conjunction with the MAG 208 is looking at ways to reuse a projected 2020 waste water flow of 340,000 acre feet per year. Reuse options identified include ground water recharge, agricultural irrigation, turf irrigation, recreational lakes, fish and wildlife habitats, and industrial cooling. These look nice on paper but before they can be implemented, some hard questions have to be answered, such as: How acceptable are local treatment plants when 15 years ago there was a major push to eliminate local plants; is the Phoenix area ready for reuse in urban areas; what are people willing to pay for water; who benefits if a city goes to ground water recharge; how much agriculture will be left in the area by 2020? These and other questions must be resolved if reuse is to become a viable option in water resource planning in the Phoenix area. Summary. Large scale reuse of waste water conforms with the national goal of better resource management through recycling. The Phoenix metropolitan area has a unique combination of circumstances which makes it one of the prime areas in the nation for waste water reuse. Some of the most notable conditions are: the existence of a large and rapidly growing urban area which is in the process of planning for future waste water management systems; the existence of agricultural areas which are projected to be farmed well into the future, and the existence of constructed and planned major recreational systems such as Indian Bend Wash which can use recycled waste water; the existence of extensive depleted ground water aquifers; the need for a dependable source for the cooling of the Palo Verde Nuclear reactors; and finally, overriding all of this, the long-term inadequacy of the existing water supplies. Given this, one would expect to find total reuse within the Phoenix metropolitan area. Reuse is taking place with irrigation and nuclear power cooling to the west but there is no long term plan which looks at the Valley as a whole and considers waste water as part of the Valley's water resources. The Corps 208 plan is looking at waste water in this manner but initial analysis shows that although reuse is technically feasible there are many financial, social, institutional, and political questions still to be answered. These include: determining the value of existing diminishing water sources and what people are willing to pay for the next source of water; are people willing to identify priority uses of water for the area so that water of varying quality is put to its highest and best use; will the present institutional boundaries remain to create water-rich and water-poor areas; and will legislation be forthcoming to simplify the complex surface and ground water laws that presently exist? The Corps 208 study will not be able to answer these questions, but the goal at the moment is to identify feasible reuse systems along with decisions the public, owners, agencies, and politicians must make to select and implement them. If some sort of logical process is not developed and public awareness not increased, the chance for a long-term plan to utilize waste water as a major element in the Phoenix area water resource picture, may be missed.     

IRRIGATOR INVOLVEMENT IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AGRICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION CONTROL PROGRAMS1

ABSTRACT: Recently, Congress designated irrigated agriculture under the “nonpoint source” category, covered by Section 208 of P.L. 92-500 and involves the use of “best management practices.” Generally, the most appropriate solutions for pollution abatement from irrigated agriculture involve the delivery and use of water rather than the treatment of irrigation return flows. 1. Technological alternatives should be utilized that are sensitive to local conditions and acceptable to the farmers. 2. Informational and educational programs to assist farm operators individually and collectively must be instituted prior to the start of the project; imaginatively conceived, and continuously modified and upgraded if motivation for change is to be encouraged. 3. Technical assistance personnel should be given short courses in skills needed for working effectively with irrigators. 4. Communication techniques used for working with farmers as individuals and groups should be designed into the implementation program and evaluated. 5. Credibility and trustworthiness of Federal and state agencies in the eyes of the irrigators provide the important final ingredient in effectively implementing change and reducing nonpoint source pollution from irrigated agriculture.