航空维修差错分析及其管理

航空维修差错是诱发或直接导致飞行事故最重要的原因之一 ,对维修差错进行分类和分析有助于航空安全。笔者在分析航空维修环境变化的基础上 ,基于Reason模型构建了维修差错分类与诱因分析的框架 ,并结合机务维修的实际情况 ,对框架所包括的不安全行为、不安全行为的先兆、不安全的管理及组织因素进行了初步编码。文章还简要论述了维修差错的管理技术 ,指出借助框架编制详细的差错分类与分析编码系统是发展的方向。     

混凝土结构施工中人因差错的模拟

以施工现场人因差错真实准确的调查实测数据为依据,笔者采用人的可靠性分析方法建立了混凝土结构施工中人因差错发生及其对混凝土强度影响规律的数学模型,并编制了相应的模拟计算程序。将该模拟计算程序所得的考虑人因差错的混凝土强度模拟计算结果与实测的混凝土强度调查结果进行比较,二者具有很好的一致性,说明该数学模型和模拟计算程序是比较符合实际的,也是比较合理的。上述模拟计算结果为考虑人因差错的结构安全性分析以及人因差错的有效控制措施研究提供了参考依据。     

街区建筑物对城市交通隧道废气排放的影响

采用大气边界层模式和随机游动扩散模式相连接的模拟方法,对上海市拟建的交通隧道排气口附近街道建筑物区域的气流分布和废气排放物浓度场进行了数值模拟分析,设计了6种方案,并按不同的废气排放形式,分别分析了街区的地面污染物质量浓度分布.结果表明,在建筑物存在的情况下,排风口造成的地面污染物质量浓度的最高值会很大,可达0.44 mg/m3,若换成排风塔,则为0.13 mg/m3; 没有建筑物的情况下,由排风口和排风塔造成的地面污染物最高质量浓度分别为0.11 mg/m3,0.4 mg/m3.当风速增大,质量浓度会降低,最大值分别从0.44 mg/m3降为0.2 mg/m3,和从0.13 mg/m3降为0.1mg/m3.分析表明,建筑物附近的气流特征对污染物扩散会起引导作用: 垂直方向上,导致污染物从高空被带入地面; 水平方向上,使得污染物在下风向堆积; 当风速增大时,地面污染物质量浓度值降低.同时研究表明,对排风塔污染物散布起主要作用的是水平方向的气流结构,而对排风口的污染物散布起主要作用的则是其附近建筑物的背风侧的气流下洗效应和水平流场,因此建筑物背风侧有可能成为重污染区.     

多尺度分割与特征优选下的盐碱地提取

土地盐渍化作为一种土壤灾害,严重制约着社会经济与农业的发展。对盐碱地进行实时监测,可为盐碱地的评价改良提供科学依据。由于盐碱地的信息复杂、提取精度不高,因此本文以高分六号(GF-6)卫星遥感影像为数据源,采用分形网络演化算法(fractal net evolution approach,FNEA)进行影像对象的多尺度分割,从面向对象的角度减少高分影像分类结果中的椒盐噪声问题,通过计算图像对象的局部方差和变化率来确定适宜的盐碱地分割尺度。利用基于特征选择的相关性算法(correlations-based feature selection,CFS)与Relief F算法分别对由光谱、纹理、形状、遥感指数构成的初始特征空间进行特征优选,精简特征子集,解决特征数量冗余问题,以此来优化随机森林对盐碱地提取精度。结果表明:CFS约简后的特征子集更小,精度更高,说明在盐碱地提取过程中,筛选特征数目能够减小冗余数据对提取精度的影响。CFS优化后的随机森林对盐碱地的提取效果较好,该方法总体分类精度达到83.7%。     

机械式模拟运输台仿真研究

模拟运输振动试验台作为一种机械式随机振动模拟器,能够较好地再现汽车运输振动环境。针对模拟运输台在调试、使用时具有一定盲目性的问题,进行了运动学仿真。仿真结果与实测数据吻合良好,验证了模型建立的正确性,调整模拟运输台上可变参数进行一系列的仿真,总结这些参数对于最终结果影响的规律。仿真结果表明,模拟运输台的台面振动由系统自激振动和凸轮带动台面强迫振动复合而成;台面上功率谱密度的第一主峰主要和系统的自激振动有关,第二主峰主要和凸轮带动台面的强迫振动有关。     

电子产品环境应力筛选试验

为了使环境应力筛选试验在有效提高电子产品的可靠性方面得以广泛应用,介绍了环境应力筛选试验的概念,针对电子产品,论述了环境应力筛选典型应力参数的确定方法、加电检测的原则、筛选度和故障率的计算、筛选中暴露的典型缺陷等。提出了环境应力筛选试验的一般程序和一些需注意的问题。     

Examination of factors associated with use rates after transition from a universal to partial motorcycle helmet use law

Objectives: Motorcycle riders account for a disproportionately high number of traffic injuries and fatalities compared to occupants of other vehicle types. Though research has demonstrated the benefits of helmet use in preventing serious and fatal injuries in the event of a crash, helmet use has remained relatively stable in the United States, where the most recent national estimates show a 64% use rate. Use rates have been markedly lower among those states that do not have a universal helmet law for all riders. In 2012, the state of Michigan repealed its longstanding mandatory helmet use law. In order to gain insights as to the effects of this legislative change, a study was conducted to examine short-term changes in helmet use and identify factors associated with use rates.

Methods: A statewide direct observation survey was conducted 1 year after the transition from a universal helmet law to a partial helmet law. A random parameters logistic regression model was estimated to identify motorcyclist, roadway, and environmental characteristics associated with helmet use. This modeling framework accounts for both intravehicle correlation (between riders and passengers on the same motorcycle) as well as unobserved heterogeneity across riders due to important unobserved factors.

Results: Helmet use was shown to vary across demographic segments of the motorcyclist population. Use rates were higher among Caucasian riders, as well as among those age 60 and above. No significant difference was observed between male and female riders. Use was also found to vary geographically, temporally, and with respect to various environmental characteristics. Geographically, helmet use rates tended to be correlated with historical restraint use trends, which may be reflective of riding environment and general differences in the riding population. To this end, rates were also highly variable based upon the type of motorcycle and whether the motorcyclist was wearing high-visibility gear.

Conclusions: The study results demonstrate the short-term reduction in helmet use following transition from a universal to partial motorcycle helmet law. The reduction in use is somewhat less pronounced than has been experienced in other states, which may be reflective of general differences among Michigan motorcyclists because the state has also generally exhibited higher use rates of seat belts and other forms of occupant protection. The study results also highlight potential target areas for subsequent education and public awareness initiatives aimed at increasing helmet use.     

Are you okay to drive? Commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentrations among restaurant diners

Objective: Drink driving is widely recognized as a major road safety problem. In Australia, health promotion messages encourage monitoring the number of standard drinks consumed prior to driving. This pilot research aimed to investigate commuting behavior and blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of diners, including intended drivers, at Sunshine Coast restaurants.

Methods: Five hundred and forty-four diners (n = 260 males) consented to participate in a brief interview and to use a breathalyzer device to measure their BAC.

Results: Forty percent of participants advised they don't drink and drive (34% of males, 45% of females; 67.25% of <17–20 years, 30.5% of 50–59 years), and of the remaining participants, 75% advised they count the number of their drinks (69% of males, 84% of females; 32% of <17–20 years, 82% of 50–59 years), while 10% of participants monitored their BAC by how they were feeling (12% of males, 6% of females). Thirty-seven percent of participants said it was easy/very easy to estimate their BAC (41% of males; 33% of females; 21% of <17–20 years, 43% of 50–59 years). The actual BAC was less than expected for 56% of participants, with one-third underestimating BAC and some intended drivers having an actual BAC in excess of the 0.05 limit.

Conclusions: Given the proportion of diners who reported they count the number of drinks, or use feelings as a way to gauge BAC, coupled with the considerable proportion who underestimated their BAC, a safer public health message is to avoid driving if you intend to drink. In addition, targeted intervention for experienced drivers (and, arguably, drinkers) appears warranted, as every participant aged less than 21 years who stated he or she would drive home indeed had a zero BAC. Interestingly every female driver who stated she would be driving home also had a legal BAC, suggesting gender-specific intervention.     

车载物资振动环境谱的数据处理与归纳

车载物资或设备振动环境谱的数据处理与归纳是车载物资或设备环境可靠性试验的重要组成部分,对保障车载物资或设备的完整性和可靠性具有十分重要的意义。以货车为例,依据GB10593．3～90进行数据合并,然后采用统计容差法进行振动环境条件随机振动规范谱的估计。所得到的规范谱为车栽物资或设备振动环境的可靠性评定奠定了基础。     

基于随机抽样推测法的LPG储槽2次爆炸事故的模型研究

在借鉴LPG储槽2次爆炸事故后果不确定分析成果的基础上,对事故过程中的不确定参数进行重新分析与选择,将孔洞上方液位高度h0,气云的TNT当量系数α,泄漏开始到点火源出现之前的持续时间t亦作为不确定分析的参数,并利用随机抽样推测的不确定分析方法,对VCE与BLEVE 2次事故后果进行重新分析,获得了与前人研究成果差异较大的结果,并由此分析这些参数对于事故后果影响的显著性。同时对2次爆炸事故的伤害距离进行了研究与分析,由于LPG的闪蒸以及参数α的影响,本案例中LPG泄漏量为总量的80%-90%以上时,2次事故的死亡半径相等且达到最小。