Long‐Term Dynamics of a Fragmented Rainforest Mammal Assemblage

Abstract: Habitat fragmentation is a severe threat to tropical biotas, but its long‐term effects are poorly understood. We evaluated longer‐term changes in the abundance of larger (>1 kg) mammals in fragmented and intact rainforest and in riparian “corridors” in tropical Queensland, with data from 190 spotlighting surveys conducted in 1986–1987 and 2006–2007. In 1986–1987 when most fragments were already 20–50 years old, mammal assemblages differed markedly between fragmented and intact forest. Most vulnerable were lemuroid ringtail possums (Hemibelideus lemuroides), followed by Lumholtz's tree‐kangaroos (Dendrolagus lumholtzi) and Herbert River ringtail possums (Pseudocheirus herbertensis). Further changes were evident 20 years later. Mammal species richness fell significantly in fragments, and the abundances of 4 species, coppery brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula johnstoni), green ringtail possums (Pseudochirops archeri), red‐legged pademelons (Thylogale stigmatica), and tree‐kangaroos, declined significantly. The most surprising finding was that the lemuroid ringtail, a strict rainforest specialist, apparently recolonized one fragment, despite a 99.98% decrease in abundance in fragments and corridors. A combination of factors, including long‐term fragmentation effects, shifts in the surrounding matrix vegetation, and recurring cyclone disturbances, appear to underlie these dynamic changes in mammal assemblages.     

Evaluating Alternative Temporal Survey Designs for Monitoring Wetland Area and Detecting Changes Over Time in California

Evaluation of wetland extent and changes in extent is a foundation of many wetland monitoring and assessment programs. Probabilistic sampling and mapping provides a cost‐effective alternative to comprehensive mapping for large geographic areas. One unresolved challenge for probabilistic or design‐based approaches is how best to monitor both status (e.g., extent at a single point in time) and trends (e.g., changes in extent over time) within a single monitoring program. Existing wetland status and trends (S&T) monitoring programs employ fixed sampling locations; however, theoretical evaluation and limited implementation in other landscape monitoring areas suggest that alternative designs could increase statistical efficiency and overall accuracy. In particular, designs that employ both fixed and nonfixed sampling locations (alternately termed permanent and temporary samples), termed sampling with partial replacement (SPR), are considered to efficiently and effectively balance monitoring current status with detection of trends. This study utilized simulated sampling to assess the performance of fixed sampling locations, SPR, and strictly nonfixed designs for monitoring wetland S&T over time. Modeled changes in wetland density over time were used as inputs for sampling simulations. In contrast to previous evaluations of SPR, the results of this study support the use of a fixed sampling design and show that SPR may underestimate both S&T.     

The multiple communities of low-carbon transition: an assessment of communities involved in forest carbon measurement

In recent writing on sociotechnical transitions theory communities are mostly conceived of as being local and place-based (“grassroots”). In this paper the implications for sociotechnical transitions theory of having multiple communities operating at different geographical scales, and with different objectives, are examined through a case study of low-carbon innovation in forests. The focus of analysis is the communities promoting sociotechnical innovations in the measurement of forest carbon. Innovation is being driven by the international United Nations climate policy initiative “Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation” (REDD+). The rise of REDD+ policy has prompted a flurry of activity in related scientific research, especially in the field of remote sensing. But other types of community are also actively positioning themselves as experts in forest carbon measurement: there are multiple communities at work, each with varying claims to innovation and expertise, from local (place-based) forest communities to international communities of foresters and forest ecologists. Recognition of the multiple communities operating within sociotechnical systems usefully draws our attention to the politics of innovation.     

Streamside Management Zones Compromised by Stream Crossings,Legacy Gullies,and Over‐Harvest in the Piedmont

Streamside management zone (SMZ) breakthroughs were identified and characterized to determine frequency and potential causes, in order to provide enhanced guidance for future water quality protection. Ten kilometers of SMZs were carefully examined for partial or complete breakthroughs. With partial breakthroughs the SMZ trapped sediment before it reached the stream, while complete breakthroughs appeared to have allowed sediment to have passed through with minimal restriction. A total of 41 breakthroughs occurred (33 complete, 8 partial) across 16 sites, averaging 1 complete breakthrough per 0.3 km of SMZ length. The most common complete breakthroughs were caused by stream crossings (42%), reactivation of legacy agricultural gullies (27%), and harvest related soil disturbances near/within SMZs (24%). Pearson correlations of site characteristics at breakthroughs indicated no strong relationships between breakthrough sites, representing the variable nature of these unique circumstances. Stream crossings are an intentional breakthrough for access purposes, but resulting environmental impacts can be reduced with best management practice implementation. Current recommendations for SMZs tend to work in most situations, yet further research is needed to identify causal factors and quantify breakthrough severity.     

龙山县生态公益林建设与管理现状及对策

简述了龙山县生态公益林建设与管理的现状,剖析了新时期发挥生态公益林的生态、社会效益与提高林农收入矛盾,分析了龙山县生态公益林建设与管理中存在的问题,提出了龙山县实现生态公益林生态、社会效益与提高林农收入的措施.参4.     

A fungal perspective on conservation biology

Hitherto fungi have rarely been considered in conservation biology, but this is changing as the field moves from addressing single species issues to an integrative ecosystem‐based approach. The current emphasis on biodiversity as a provider of ecosystem services throws the spotlight on the vast diversity of fungi, their crucial roles in terrestrial ecosystems, and the benefits of considering fungi in concert with animals and plants. We reviewed the role of fungi in ecosystems and composed an overview of the current state of conservation of fungi. There are 5 areas in which fungi can be readily integrated into conservation: as providers of habitats and processes important for other organisms; as indicators of desired or undesired trends in ecosystem functioning; as indicators of habitats of conservation value; as providers of powerful links between human societies and the natural world because of their value as food, medicine, and biotechnological tools; and as sources of novel tools and approaches for conservation of megadiverse organism groups. We hope conservation professionals will value the potential of fungi, engage mycologists in their work, and appreciate the crucial role of fungi in nature. Una Perspectiva Micótica de la Biología de la Conservación     

基于BERT-BILSTM-CRF模型的电力行业事故文本智能分析*

为解决电力行业事故报告文本较长、语义复杂,难以进行有效文本识别问题,提出1种以BERT作为底层的预训练模型,并设计1种双重注意力机制编码器,结合BILSTM-CRF深度挖掘事故文本语义特征,从而实现文本智能分析。首先构建电力词典,通过对BERT预训练,进行BIO标注,然后引入BILSTM-CRF模型实现对文本标签智能分类,最后将该模型与现行其他4种深度学习模型进行对比。研究结果表明:该模型智能识别精确率、召回率及F1值(查准率)均达到约97%,较其他4种模型中效果最好的模型分别提高0.02,0.03,0.02。研究结果可为电力行业事故报告文本分析提供1种新思路。     

基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型*

为提高林火风险预测精度,挖掘地图上隐含的空间信息、时间序列上隐含的长期趋势和循环波动,提出1种基于缓冲区重采样的长短期记忆（LSTM）林火预测模型,选取15个与林火相关的影响因素,以方差膨胀因子为评价指标对其进行多重共线性检验,方差膨胀因子大于10的因素具有共线性,并采用信息增益率验证筛选结果的合理性。考虑到火灾的空间聚集特性,采用缓冲区分析与过采样相结合方法减少样本不均衡现象的影响,最终得到176 732条样本。对12个影响因素和研究时间段的火点建立LSTM预测模型,对森林火灾发生风险进行预测。研究结果表明:基于缓冲区重采样的LSTM林火预测模型有效考虑时空上隐含的信息,预测模型准确率为87.06%,特异性为97.99%,敏感度为76.12%,阳性预测率为97.43%,阴性预测率为80.41%,ROC曲线与AUC值均优于随机森林（RF）和支持向量机（SVM）这2种基准算法。维尔克松秩和检验发现,本文提出的模型与基准算法结果具有显著性差异。研究结果可为提高林火风险预测精度提供参考。     

森林保险支付意愿及影响因素分析——基于异质性营林主体视角

基于期望效用函数理论分析了异质性营林主体的森林保险支付意愿及差异,并以传统小林农和新型林业经营主体为研究对象,以福建省382户传统小林农和88户新型林业经营主体的调研数据为基础,综合运用条件估值法、卡方检验及Cox比例风险模型,对异质性营林主体的森林保险支付意愿与差异及支付意愿影响因素进行对比与分析。研究表明：传统小林农和新型林业经营主体的森林保险意愿支付水平存在显著差异,在1000~2500元/亩保障水平下,传统小林农的意愿支付水平分别为1.911元/亩、2.941元/亩、3.532元/亩及3.979元/亩,新型林业经营主体为1.632元/亩、3.971元/亩、5.809元/亩及6.864元/亩;两类营林主体的支付意愿均随保额的提高而提高,但新型林业经营主体的提升幅度远高于小林农。异质性营林主体的森林保险支付意愿影响因素也存在明显差别,这与其在森林保险认知特征、林业生产经营特征、林业灾损特征、森林保险产品评价特征等方面存在显著差异有关。此外,林地面积对两类营林主体支付意愿均具有显著影响,规模化、集约化的林业生产经营可促进林业经营主体的森林保险愿意支付水平。     

基于变量重要性评分-随机森林的溶解氧预测模型——以深圳湾为例

运用Pearson相关性分析,变量重要性评分和随机森林方法构建了溶解氧（DO）实时预测模型,并以深圳湾为例采用浮标资料预测1,3,6和12h的溶解氧.模型预测结果表明,模型最优的输入条件为pH值,水温,叶绿素a,氧化还原电位和蓝绿藻5个水质指标,1h预报的相关系数在0.9以上,6h预报结果一定程度上可以满足工程要求,但对低溶解氧事件的预报必须在3h以内.