基于AHP-TOPSIS的在产企业地下水铁锰污染修复技术比选

筛选科学合理的在产企业地下水修复技术对于有效修复受污染地下水体、节约企业环保投资、实现绿色可持续发展具有重要意义。针对某在产企业铁锰污染的地下水,提出抽出处理、原位化学氧化、可渗透反应墙、监测自然衰减4套技术方案,运用层次分析法（AHP）与逼近于理想解的排序技术（TOPSIS）联合选取最佳修复方案。选取技术、经济、环境、社会4方面的14项指标建立层次分析模型,先由AHP确定指标权重,然后采用TOPSIS对4种技术方案进行优劣排序。结果表明,监测自然衰减技术方案由于在资源和能源消耗、废物产生及排放量、工程建设前期投入等方面的优势,适用于该在产企业地下水的治理与修复。

     

Illegal fishing and territorial user rights in Chile

Illegal fishing poses a major threat to conservation of marine resources worldwide. However, there is still limited empirical research that quantifies illegal catch levels. We used the randomized response technique to estimate the proportion of divers and the quantities of loco (Concholepas concholepas) they extracted illegally. Loco have been managed for the past 17 years through a territorial user rights for fisheries system (TURFs) in Chile. Illegal fishing of loco was widespread within the TURFs system. Official reported landings (i.e., legal landings) accounted for 14–30% of the total loco extraction. Our estimates suggest that ignoring the magnitude of illegal fishing and considering only official landing statistics may lead to false conclusions about the status and trends of a TURFs managed fishery. We found evidence of fisher associations authorizing their members to poach inside TURFs, highlighting the need to design TURFs systems so that government agencies and fishers’ incentives and objectives align through continuous adaptation. Government support for enforcement is a key element for the TURFs system to secure the rights that are in place.     

Participatory development of incentives to coexist with jaguars and pumas

Reducing costs and increasing benefits for rural communities coexisting with large carnivores is necessary for conservation of jaguar (Panthera onca) and puma (Puma concolor). To design acceptable incentives, stakeholders must be involved in the process. We conducted an innovative, structured, group communication process based on a Delphi technique as a template for identifying potential incentives. Community workshops with 133 members of 7 communities and surveys with 25 multidisciplinary experts from government, nongovernmental organizations, and academia provided iterative data to design a plan of incentives through 4 rounds of discussion. The final product integrated 862 ideas into 6 types of incentives: organization of communities, mechanisms for improved dialogue, citizen technical assistance, green labeling for community products, payment for the ecosystem service of biodiversity, and an assessment of financial alternatives. We used quantitative and qualitative techniques to indicate support for decisions about the design of incentives, which reduced researcher subjectivity. The diverse incentives developed and the cooperation from multiple stakeholders resulted in an incentive plan that integrated issues of governance, equity, and social norms.     

Effects of Multiple Levels of Social Organization on Survival and Abundance

Abstract: Identifying how social organization shapes individual behavior, survival, and fecundity of animals that live in groups can inform conservation efforts and improve forecasts of population abundance, even when the mechanism responsible for group‐level differences is unknown. We constructed a hierarchical Bayesian model to quantify the relative variability in survival rates among different levels of social organization (matrilines and pods) of an endangered population of killer whales (Orcinus orca). Individual killer whales often participate in group activities such as prey sharing and cooperative hunting. The estimated age‐specific survival probabilities and survivorship curves differed considerably among pods and to a lesser extent among matrilines (within pods). Across all pods, males had lower life expectancy than females. Differences in survival between pods may be caused by a combination of factors that vary across the population's range, including reduced prey availability, contaminants in prey, and human activity. Our modeling approach could be applied to demographic rates for other species and for parameters other than survival, including reproduction, prey selection, movement, and detection probabilities.     

Predicting and Mapping Potential Whooping Crane Stopover Habitat to Guide Site Selection for Wind Energy Projects

Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site‐selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions. Predicción y Mapeo del Hábitat Potencial de Descanso de la Grulla Americana para Guiar la Selección de Sitios para Proyectos de Energía Eólica.     

北京能源消费排放CO2增量的影响因素分析——基于三层嵌套式的I-O SDA技术

通过构建一个扩展的竞争型经济-能源-碳排放投入产出表,运用三层嵌套结构式I-O SDA 技术,从整体情况、分产业、工业分行业3 个层面,对1997—2007 年北京的碳排放增量进行了分解。结果表明:消费、投资、调出和出口等经济规模增长要素,以272.46%的贡献率成为增排的主要因素,而能源消费强度变动效应,则以-237.13%的贡献率成为减排的决定性因素;在规模扩张各效应中,调出和消费超过投资和出口达8 403.38×10⁴ t,是增排的主要贡献者;2002—2007 年间以“高碳”为特征的新一轮工业化,使该期增排占到1997—2007年总增量的86.41%;服务业的贡献率是75.93%,为增排的第一大部门,但2002—2007 年工业超出服务业1 036.40×10⁴ t;重制造业的贡献率是1 030.76%,为增排的重点行业,而能源工业则以-992.81%的贡献率,成为减排的重点行业;各时段各效应在不同产业、工业不同行业发挥的作用大小不同且不够稳定。     

水环境监测中现代化萃取技术的应用

对水环境监测中ASE现代萃取技术的应用展开深入研究,分析了ASE萃取技术的原理、特点、工作流程、应用范围等,认为ASE快速溶剂萃取技术与传统索氏萃取、超声萃取、微波萃取相比,具备所用溶剂少、监测时间短、萃取效率高等优势。     

面向GF-1WFV数据的闽江下游叶绿素a反演模型研究

叶绿素a浓度是可直接遥感反演的重要水质参数之一,常用来评价水体的富营养化程度.为建立适合于闽江下游叶绿素a浓度的反演模型,利用地面采样数据,结合GF-1 WFV光谱响应函数,选用多元回归、BP神经网络和随机森林方法,构建了叶绿素a浓度反演模型;并根据验证数据与实测值之间的决定系数(R~2)、均方根误差(RMSE)和平均相对误差对模型反演结果进行了比较.结果发现,随机森林模型的R~2为0.895,RMSE为1.994 mg·m~(-3),平均相对误差为11.502%,是3种模型中最优的.为了评估模型的性能,进一步比较了WFV影像像元反射率反演的叶绿素a浓度值与相应的实测值.结果表明,随机森林模型同样具有较高的精度,其R~2为0.709,RMSE为3.540 mg·m~(-3),平均相对误差为25.616%.本研究可为闽江下游水环境的监测提供一定的理论依据和技术参考.     

Effects of Zn~（2＋） on root growth，cell division，and nucleoli of Allium cepa L．

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