浅谈供应链企业之间动机控制机制

供应链管理强调供应链上节点企业及其活动的整体集成,其管理范围不仅包括企业内部的生产经营活动,而且涉及整体供应链管理技术,并且在管理中特别重视企业之间的合作.基于期望理论从动机控制机制角度浅谈供应链企业之间的运作.图1,参4.     

Strategic environmental policy; eco-dumping or a green strategy?

The Porter hypothesis claims that a strong environmental policy best serves the interests of a nation's export industry. While this hypothesis seems to be based on some form of bounded rationality, this paper argues that governments may have good reasons for setting an especially strong environmental policy even though firms are fully rational. If the available abatement technology turns the environment into an “inferior input”, competitiveness is spurred by a strong environmental policy. The government should take advantage of this, and set an especially strict emission quota or an especially high emission tax. The findings in the paper also has consequences for the desirability of international cooperation with respect to national environmental policy. If a strict environmental policy spurs competitiveness, the environment is better protected without cooperation.     

Foraging in the seed-harvester ant genus Pogonomyrmex: are energy costs important?

Energy intake and expenditure on natural foraging trips were estimated for the seed-harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex maricopa and P. rugosus. During seed collection, P. maricopa foraged individually, whereas P. rugosus employed a trunk-trail foraging system. Energy gain per trip and per minute were not significantly different between species. There was also no interspecific difference in energy cost per trip, but energy cost per minute was lower for P. maricopa foragers because they spent on average 7 min longer searching for a load on each trip. Including both unsuccessful and successful foraging trips, average energy gain per trip was more than 100 times the energy cost per trip for both species. Based on this result, we suggest that time cost incurred during individual foraging trips is much more important than energy cost in terms of maximizing net resource intake over time. In addition, because energy costs are so small relative to gains, we propose that energy costs associated with foraging may be safely ignored in future tests of foraging theory with seed-harvesting ant species.     

森林旅游开发中环境保护问题的博弈分析

介绍了博弈论的基本内容,运用了博弈论的基本原理分析和认识森林旅游开发和周边地区生态环境保护之间存在的矛盾,阐述了博弈论的基本理论在森林旅游开发环保中的应用,分析指出应结合市场机制和政府政策改变博弈方的收益,使博弈达到有利于环境保护的纳什均衡,提高森林旅游开发中的环境保护效率,以及处理森林旅游开发中环境保护问题的有效决策.     

Active Adaptive Management for Conservation

Abstract:  Active adaptive management balances the requirements of management with the need to learn about the system being managed, which leads to better decisions. It is difficult to judge the benefit of management actions that accelerate information gain, relative to the benefit of making the best management decision given what is known at the time. We present a first step in developing methods to optimize management decisions that incorporate both uncertainty and learning via adaptive management. We assumed a manager can allocate effort to discrete units (e.g., areas for revegetation or animals for reintroduction), the outcome can be measured as success or failure (e.g., the revegetation in an area is successful or the animal survives and breeds), and the manager has two possible management options from which to choose. We further assumed that there is an annual budget that may be allocated to one or both of the two options and that the manager must decide on the allocation. We used Bayesian updating of the probability of success of the two options and stochastic dynamic programming to determine the optimal strategy over a specified number of years. The costs, level of certainty about the success of the two options, and the timeframe of management all influenced the optimal allocation of the annual budget. In addition, the choice of management objective had a large influence on the optimal decision. In a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, we applied the approach to determining revegetation strategies. Our approach can be used to determine how best to manage ecological systems in the face of uncertainty.     

Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.     

地面运动转动分量的合成方法

假设近场地面运动由体波产生（忽略面波的影响）,根据弹性半空间的平面谐波理论,提出了利用平动分量加速度记录合成地面转动加速时程的方法。该方法考虑了由于实际介质的不均匀性而产生的地震波频散现象。     

冰对斜体结构作用的二维和三维力学模型分析

通常情况下，作用在斜体结构表面的冰力小于垂直结构，因此斜体结构成为有冰海区海洋结构的优选结构，冰对斜体结构作用力学机制的分析是近些年来国际上研究的热点问题。本文运用简单的二维理论及较为复杂的三维理论，依据辽东湾环境条件，采用计算与作图分析的手段，对摩擦系数、坡角、冰强度及冰厚如何影响作用在斜体结构上的水平冰力进行了讨论，并验证了相应结论     

利益冲突群体的安全人性及其弱点

根据安全人性需求理论对利益冲突群体形成的原因进行了分析,在安全人性理论的基础上揭示了利益冲突群体安全人性的本质。通过统计分析我国近14年发生的群体性事件,得出了我国群体性事件的特点、矛盾主体、原因。运用蝴蝶突变理论对群体性事件发生的原因进行分析,构建了群体性事件发生的过程机理模型,提出了应对群体性事件发生的思路,总结出利益冲突群体安全人性的应用领域。     

Perceived enjoyment,concentration, intention,and speed violation behavior: Using flow theory and theory of planned behavior

Objective: Road accidents are an important public health concern, and speeding is a major contributor. Although flow theory (FLT) is a valid model for understanding behavior, currently the nature of the roles and interplay of FLT constructs within the theory of planned behavior (TPB) framework when attempting to explain the determinants of motivations for intention to speed and speeding behavior of car drivers is not yet known. The study aims to synthesize TPB and FLT in explaining drivers of advanced vehicles intentions to speed and speed violation behaviors and evaluate factors that are critical for explaining intention and behavior.

Method: The hypothesized model was validated using a sample collected from 354 fully licensed drivers of advanced vehicles, involving 278 males and 76 females on 2 occasions separated by a 3-month interval. During the first of the 2 occasions, participants completed questionnaire measures of TPB and FLT variables. Three months later, participants' speed violation behaviors were assessed.

Results: The study observed a significant positive relationship between the constructs. The proposed model accounted for 51 and 45% of the variance in intention to speed and speed violation behavior, respectively. The independent predictors of intention were enjoyment, attitude, and subjective norm. The independent predictors of speed violation behavior were enjoyment, concentration, intention, and perceived behavioral control.

Conclusions: The findings suggest that safety interventions for preventing speed violation behaviors should be aimed at underlying beliefs influencing the speeding behaviors of drivers of advanced vehicles. Furthermore, perceived enjoyment is of equal importance to driver's intention, influencing speed violation behavior.