基于屏障理论的安全事故原因分析方法研究

本文系统介绍了基于屏障理论的事故原因分析方法,编制事件时间链图,完整还原事故发生经过,并通过屏障辨识及分析,确定事故的直接原因、间接原因和根本原因,为事故原因分析提供参考方法和工具。最后通过实际案例进行了应用和验证。     

基于熵权物元可拓模型的地下空间火灾安全评价

为了准确评价地下空间的安全性,降低地下空间火灾事故的风险,从地下空间主动防火能力、地下空间被动防火能力、安全疏散能力以及安全管理能力4个层次构建地下空间火灾安全评价指标体系。采用熵权法和物元可拓理论建立了地下空间火灾风险的熵权可拓评价模型,并在某地下商城的火灾安全评价中进行了实际应用。结果表明,该地下商场空间的火灾安全评价等级为二级,与实际地下商场火灾安全状态相符。本文研究表明基于熵权的可拓理论可以适用于地下空间火灾的安全评价,有利于提升地下空间的火灾风险应对。     

基于C-OWA算子和证据理论的船舶夜航光环境安全评价

为了更好地保障船舶夜航安全,基于船舶夜航光环境的特殊性和船舶夜航的风险性,构建船舶夜航光环境证据理论评价模型。首先,建立以信号灯误导、眩光干扰、频闪污染、光导致疲劳等4个决策层为基础的船舶夜航光环境评价指标体系;其次,运用C-OWA算子处理专家对指标的决策数据,判断光环境对船舶夜航安全的影响程度;最后,将证据理论模型应用于大连大窑湾港的夜航光环境中。结果表明:该光环境安全性高,对船舶夜航安全的影响小。构建的模型为港口、航道以及其他船舶夜航光环境水域安全评价提供了一定的参考依据。     

高校安全管理模型建立及对策研究

高校的安全问题日益突出,严重威胁师生的人身和财产安全,影响校园的和谐稳定。如何减少校园事故的发生,提高安全管理效率,是目前研究的热点。本文根据高校事故发生的"5M原理",揭示导致校园事故发生的多种因素,结合AHP理清了各因素之间的复杂层次关系,建立5个一级指标、30个二级指标的高校评价指标体系。根据L高校实际情况,制定了危险控制的基本措施,依据构建的基于"新木桶理论"安全管理模型,为高校安全事故的预防提供借鉴。     

现代应急管理:理论体系与应用实践

现代应急管理是研究突发事件的现象及其发展规律的学科,集成多个学科的前沿理论、方法和技术,是当代中国应急管理发展需依托的知识体系及方法论。本文从现代应急管理的概念和理论出发,阐述了应急管理的功能体制与组织架构、风险分析策略与应急评价方法创新、新兴风险防范与应急管理机制设计、应急管理技术支撑与系统平台等核心问题。同时,从应急资源、应急产业、协作模式、应急文化4个方面对现代应急管理的应用与实践提出一些建议。研究表明:现代应急管理能够全面提高国家综合防灾减灾救灾能力。     

埋地管道缺陷的自漏磁场计算方法研究

基于现有的埋地管道缺陷自漏磁场计算方法把缺陷处的磁荷假设为均匀分布,对于计算结果与实际检测存在较大误差的问题,通过采用ANSYS软件对管道缺陷进行有限元分析,根据材料力磁关系和磁荷理论,提出1种考虑磁荷实际分布的缺陷自漏磁场计算方法,并将该计算方法应用在某埋地管道磁记忆检测中。研究结果表明:该方法计算结果与实际值之间的峰值相对误差为6.9%,相对于现有方法16.4%的相对误差,准确度更高。研究结果有助于在管道磁记忆检测中,提高管道缺陷量化的准确性,对埋地管道缺陷非开挖识别与剩余寿命评价有重要意义。     

基于PT-IE的区域性企业整体应急准备能力评估分析

针对传统评估方法在评价区域性企业整体应急能力的过程中未考虑评价者心理偏好与风险因素之间的关系,提出了1种基于前景理论(PT)与信息熵(IE)的评价模型,并设计了企业生产安全事故应急准备能力评价体系。首先以区属整体企业为单位构建心理损益矩阵,然后运用信息熵理论修正指标权重结构,最后依据前景理论计算得出各区、各指标的综合前景值并以此分析排序。实例表明:影响各区企业整体应急水平的共性问题在于应急组织体系不完善和应急救援力量不足,该模型对政府监管部门有针对性的分析和加强地区企业整体应急建设水平具有一定的指导意义。     

The missing link? Implications of internal,external, and relational attribution combinations for leader–member exchange,relationship work,self‐work,and conflict

Attributions are causal explanations made by individuals in response to important, novel, and/or unexpected events. Numerous attribution theories have examined how people use information to make attributions and how attributions impact an individual's subsequent emotions and outcomes. However, this research has only recently considered the implications of dyadic‐level attributions (i.e., relational attributions), particularly in the context of leader–follower relationships in organizations. Therefore, the purpose of this theoretical paper is threefold. First, we integrate research on attributional biases into the research on relational attributions. Second, we integrate and extend attribution theory to consider the implications of convergent and divergent internal, external‐person, external‐situational, and relational attributions for leader–member exchange (LMX) quality, relationship work, self‐work, and conflict. Third, we make the implicit ranking of attribution combinations and the resultant levels of relationship work explicit. In doing so, we contribute to attribution theory and research by proposing how attribution combinations produce positive and negative outcomes that are both intrapersonal and interpersonal. Further, we contribute to the LMX literature by explicating how leader–follower attribution combinations influence relationship quality.     

Information,beliefs, and motivation: The antecedents to human resource attributions

Despite significant interest in the attributions employees make about their organization's human resource (HR) practices, there is little understanding of the antecedents of HR attributions. Drawing on attribution theory, we suggest that HR attributions are influenced by information (perceptions of distributive and procedural fairness), beliefs (organizational cynicism), and motivation (perceived relevance). We test a model through a two‐wave survey of 347 academic faculty in the United Kingdom, examining their attributions of the purpose of their institution's workload management framework. After two preliminary studies (an interview study and a cross‐sectional survey) to establish contextually relevant attributions, we find that fairness and cynicism are important for the formation of internal attributions of commitment but less so for cost‐saving or exploitation attributions. Fairness and cynicism also interact such that distributive fairness buffers the negative attributional effect of cynicism, and individuals are more likely to attribute fair procedures to external forces if they are cynical about their organization. This study furthers the application of attribution theory to the organizational domain while making significant contributions to our understanding of the HR‐performance process.     

Effects of multitasking on operator performance using computational and auditory tasks

This study investigated the effects of multiple cognitive tasks on human performance. Twenty-four students at North Carolina A&;T State University participated in the study. The primary task was auditory signal change perception and the secondary task was a computational task. Results showed that participants' performance in a single task was statistically significantly different from their performance in combined tasks: (a) algebra problems (algebra problem primary and auditory perception secondary); (b) auditory perception tasks (auditory perception primary and algebra problems secondary); and (c) mean false-alarm score in auditory perception (auditory detection primary and algebra problems secondary). Using signal detection theory (SDT), participants' performance measured in terms of sensitivity was calculated as ?0.54 for combined tasks (algebra problems the primary task) and ?0.53 auditory perceptions the primary task. During auditory perception tasks alone, SDT was found to be 2.51. Performance was 83% in a single task compared to 17% when combined tasks.