国家自主贡献机制下的减排力度调控机制设计

现有国家自主贡献机制存在约束力弱、减排力度小的问题,对此,本文在论证该机制内在缺陷的基础上,基于信息不对称理论的委托代理模型设计了减排力度调控机制。该减排力度调控机制既能使各国的自主贡献额具有强约束力,又能灵活调控各国的减排力度,并发掘各国的减排潜力。该减排力度调控机制有助于弥补现有国家自主贡献机制的缺陷,促进国际社会的减排。     

长三角空气质量区域预报准确性评估方法研究

根据长三角空气质量区域预报工作的实际需要,对分区文字预报和落区图预报两种方式分别制定了不同的空气质量指数级别预报准确性评估方法。分区文字预报根据设定的预报准确性判定方法计算预报评分,落区图预报按区域内预报准确城市占比进行准确率统计。分区文字预报结果显示,2017年长三角区域的预报准确天数占比为62.2%,预报评分为70.2,区域预报评估效果良好。落区图预报评估结果显示,预报级别偏差具有地域性差异,安徽北部、江苏北部和江西中北部预报等级偏高,长三角中南部沿海城市预报等级偏低。该套评估方法可为区域空气质量预报偏差成因分析提供依据,为区域预报工作的改进提供定量参考。     

Evaluation of a population mobility,mortality, and birth surveillance system in South Kivu,Democratic Republic of the Congo

Prospective, community-based surveillance systems for measuring birth, death, and population movement rates may have advantages over the ‘gold-standard’ retrospective household survey in humanitarian contexts. A community-based, monthly surveillance system was established in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, in partnership with a local implementing partner and the national ministry of health. Data were collected on the occurrence of births, deaths, arrivals, and departures over the course of one year, and a retrospective survey was conducted at the end of the period to validate the information. Discrepancies between the two approaches were resolved by a third visit to the households with discordant records. The study found that the surveillance system was superior in terms of its specificity and sensitivity in measuring crude mortality and birth rates as compared to the survey, demonstrating the method's potential to measure accurately important population-level health metrics in an insecure setting in a timely, community-acceptable manner.     

Eco-Environmental Degradation in the Source Region of the Yellow River, Northeast Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

The Yellow River is the second longest river in China and the cradle of the Chinese civilization. The source region of the Yellow River is the most important water holding area for the Yellow River, about 49.2% of the whole runoff comes from this region. However, for the special location, it is a region with most fragile eco-environment in China as well. Eco-environmental degradation in the source region of the Yellow River has been a very serious ecological and socially economic problem. According to census data, historical documents and climatic information, during the last half century, especially the last 30 years, great changes have taken place in the eco-environment of this region. Such changes are mainly manifested in the temporal-spatial changes of water environment, deglaciation, permafrost reduction, vegetation degeneracy and desertification extent, which led to land capacity decreasing and river disconnecting. At present, desertification of the region is showing an accelerating tendency. This paper analyzes the present status of eco-environment degradation in this region supported by GIS and RS, as well as field investigation and indoor analysis, based on knowledge, multi-source data is gathered and the classification is worked out, deals with their natural and anthropogenic causes, and points out that in the last half century the desertification and environmental degradation of this region are mainly attributed to human activities under the background of regional climate changes. To halt further degradation of the environment of this region, great efforts should be made to use land resources rationally, develop advantages animal agriculture and protect the natural grassland.     

乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气质量变化趋势分析

为了定量评价乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气污染近五年的治理成效,给环境治理决策提供科学依据,运用回归分析方法,对乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气质量的浓度、级别和变化规律进行回归分析。分析结果表明,PM10、SO2、NO2三项污染物的浓度都有所下降,空气质量级别的污染天数呈现明显的月变化规律。乌鲁木齐市采暖季空气的重污染状况有所遏制,但SO2污染凸现,在下一步的治理工作中,加强尘污染治理的同时要加大对SO2的治理力度。     

新疆番茄酱企业生产废水处理利用方式探析

近年来,新疆番茄酱加工业得到了迅速发展,目前番茄酱的产销量已占全国的90%以上。与此同时,新疆番茄酱生产企业的废水排放量也大幅增加,大量未经处理的废水直接排放,已对当地的水环境构成严重的污染隐患。本文分析了新疆番茄酱企业生产废水的排放特征与目前排放出路的可行性,并结合新疆的自然地理条件及番茄酱企业的分布情况,着重探讨了土地处理这一适合新疆的废水利用方式,以期有利于新疆的环境保护和废水资源的循环利用。     

基于FHWA的兰州市道路交通噪声预测模型的建立

结合美国道路交通噪声污染预测模型(FHWA)和国内学者在该方面的大量研究成果,选择兰州市主、次干道共计52条、142个监测点的建模采样数据,并应用统计学原理分析了影响道路交通噪声的各个因子与道路交通噪声的相关性,最终得出了符合兰州市道路交通特征的噪声污染统计预测模型.随后通过兰州市15个监测点的预测与实测对比验证后发现二者具有较高的一致性,此模型可应用在兰州市道路交通噪声污染的预测评价中.     

经济与环境协调发展综合指标与实证分析

贯彻落实科学发展观,其重要内容之一就是要实现经济与环境的协调发展.建立了体现经济与环境协调关系的5个单项指标,即能耗强度、水耗强度、污染物(SO2和COD)排放强度、运输强度、环保投入强度,以及1个综合性指标--经济与环境协调度.以上述指标为基础,比较分析了代表我国东部及中、西部地区经济发展水平的广东省、湖北省和陕西省1999-2003年经济与环境关系现状.结果表明:东部发达地区经济与环境日趋协调,而中、西部地区经济与环境关系协调度较差,尤其是西部地区表现尤为明显.      

长江流域点源氮磷营养盐的排放、模型及预测

通过分析1985～2003年长江流域向河口/东海排放的点源营养盐的时空变化规律,建立长江点源营养盐排放模型,并预测2020年长江流域点源氮磷排放情况.模型基于人口密度、国内生产总值、人均氮磷排放量、以及污水处理率等因子,在99%的置信度上,氮磷模型的方差解释量分别达到92.3%及93.2%.基于此模型预测2020年长江流域点源氮排放量将达到(95 9±6 6)×104t,点源磷排放量达到(12.3±0.6)×104t.此外,研究结果进一步表明,点源营养盐通量仍然是长江输送营养盐总量的主要部分,是影响河口/近海水质的主要因素.     

长江口沙洲表层沉积物磷的赋存形态及生物有效性

利用磷的连续分级提取方法,研究了长江口沙洲沉积物中磷的赋存形态分布特征,并探讨了沉积物中磷的生物有效性.结果表明,沙洲沉积物中总磷的含量为437.6～1103.7μg·g-1,其中79.5%以无机磷的形式存在,而无机磷中以碎屑态磷灰石磷为主;有机磷约占总磷的20.5%.磷的生物有效性分析结果显示,潜在的生物有效性磷主要包括弱吸附态磷、铁结合态磷和有机磷等3种赋存形态,而长江口沙洲沉积物中潜在的生物有效性磷含量较少,约为60.5～510.9μg·g-1,平均仅占沉积物总磷的28.86%.