Bayesian model-based cluster analysis for predicting macrofaunal communities

To predict macrofaunal community composition from environmental data a two-step approach is often followed: (1) the water samples are clustered into groups on the basis of the macrofauna data and (2) the groups are related to the environmental data, e.g. by discriminant analysis. For the cluster analysis in step 1 many hard, seemingly arbitrary choices have to be made that nevertheless influence the solution (similarity measure, clustering strategy, number of clusters). The stability of the solution is often of concern, e.g. in clustering by the program. In the discriminant analysis of step 2 it can occur that a water sample is misclassified on the basis of the environmental data but on further inspection happens to be a borderline case in the cluster analysis. One would then rather reclassify such a sample and iterate the two steps. Bayesian latent class analysis is a flexible, extendable model-based cluster analysis approach that recently has gained popularity in the statistical literature and that has the potential to address these problems. It allows the macrofauna and environmental data to be modelled and analyzed in a single integrated analysis. An exciting extension is to incorporate in the analysis prior information on the habitat preferences of the macrofauna taxa such as is available in lists of indicator values. The output of the analysis is not a hard assignment of water samples to clusters but a probabilistic (fuzzy) assignment. The number of clusters is determined on the basis of the Bayes factor. A standard feature of the Bayesian method is to make predictions and to assess their uncertainty. We applied this approach to a data set consisting of 70 water samples, 484 macrofauna taxa and four environmental variables for which previously a five cluster solution had been proposed. The standard for Bayesian estimation, the Gibbs sampler, worked fine on a subset with only 12 selected taxa but did not converge on the full set with 484 taxa. This is due to many configurations in which the assignment probabilities are all very close to either 0 or 1. This convergence problem is comparable with the local optima problem in classical cluster optimization algorithms, including the EM algorithm used in Latent Gold, a Windows program for latent class analysis. The convergence problem needs to be solved before the benefits of Bayesian latent class analysis can come to fruition in this application. We discuss possible solutions.     

双酚A类似物雌激素干扰效应的定量结构-活性关系模型

由于双酚A(BPA)具有内分泌干扰等毒性效应,有些国家已经开始限制其在部分工业品生产中使用。一些双酚A类似物因用于替代BPA而被大量使用。因其与双酚A具有相似的分子结构,双酚A类似物是否也具有内分泌干扰等毒性效应受到越来越多的关注。采用逐步多元线性回归(MLR)方法,构建了可预测双酚A类似物雌激素效应的定量结构-活性关系模型。模型的决定系数R~2=0.899,去一法交叉验证系数Q_(LOO)~2=0.868,Bootstrapping验证系数Q_(BOOT)~2=0.755,均方根误差RMSE=0.339,表明模型具有较好的拟合优度、稳健性;验证集决定系数Q_(EXT)~2=0.921,外部验证系数Q_(EXT)~2=0.810,均方根误差RMSE=0.638,表明模型具有较好的预测能力。采用欧几里德距离方法和Wil iams图表征了模型应用域,依据分子描述符对模型进行了机理解释,并用所建模型,填补了22种其他双酚A类似物缺失的雌激素干扰效应数据。     

有机污染物的被动采样材料-水分配系数的QSAR研究

污染物的被动采样材料-水分配系数(K_(PW))是衡量被动采样器性能和进行优化的一个重要指标,由于实验方法难以逐个测定众多污染物的K_(PW)值,有必要发展其KP W预测方法。本研究选取聚乙烯(PE)、聚丙烯酸酯(PA)和硅橡胶(SR)3类常用的被动采样材料共7种,采用多元线性回归分析方法构建可用于K_(PW)预测的定量构效关系(QSAR)模型。所构建的QSAR模型具有良好的拟合优度(R2a dj介于0.806~0.989)、稳健性(Q2L O O和Q2B O O T分别介于0.786~0.988和0.773~0.801)和预测能力(R_(ext)~2和Q_(ext)~2分别介于0.769~0.989和0.757~0.982),可以用于预测烷烃、烯烃、芳香类、醇类、酮类、酯类、醚类等多种有机污染物的log KP W值。有机污染物的log KP W与分子Mc Gowan体积(Vx)、氯原子个数(n Cl)、环周长(Rperim)、多重键个数(n BM)、N,O极性贡献的拓扑极性表面积(TPSA(NO))、[-N(=)=]结构个数(Ndds N)和羟基个数(nROH)等参数有关。     

乙腈溶剂中单壁碳纳米管与常见有机化合物的相互作用

以单壁碳纳米管(SWCNTs)为固定相,采用高压匀浆法,制备HPLC色谱柱.测定乙腈相中18种有机化合物在SWCNTs色谱柱上的保留因子,研究SWCNTs与化合物的相互作用.结果表明,有机化合物取代基的种类和个数、杂原子的个数影响乙腈相中有机化合物与SWCNTs的相互作用.采用线性溶解能关系(LSER)定量表征SWCNTs与有机化合物的相互作用,所构建的LSER模型具有较强的拟合能力(R2=0.844)和稳健性(Q2LOO=0.768),发现π-/n-电子对作用和空穴/弥散作用是控制SWCNTs与有机化合物相互作用的主要因素.     

基于受体模型和地统计学相结合的土壤镉污染源解析

研究了武汉市东湖高新技术开发区约150km2范围内土壤重金属Cd元素的含量分布和潜在来源情况. 并利用主成份分析/绝对主成分分数(PCA/APCS)受体模型定量解析了土壤中Cd的来源, 结果表明土壤中Cd的来源以源1为主(来源分担率为:源167%、源28%、源316%,其他源9%).同时利用该受体模型得到了在每个采样点的源贡献量, 并用地统计学方法插值了Cd的源贡献量的空间分布状况.结果显示, Cd各个源贡献量具有不同的空间分布状况, 其中最大源1的高贡献值主要集中在研究区中部. 结合PCA分析和源贡献量空间分布状况, 初步推断源1可能为电子工业源,源2为城市大气沉降,源3应为成土母质. 研究结果表明, 将PCA/APCS受体模型和地统计学方法相结合可以有效地对土壤重金属隐性污染源进行定性识别及定量解析.     

Thymic involution produced by diesel exhaust particles and their constituents in mice

Epidemiological studies suggest that diesel exhaust particles (DEP) contribute to an increase in allergic diseases. To assess the effects of DEP on the central immune system, mice were exposed to DEP by intraperitoneal (IP) administration. Exposure to DEP resulted in severe thymic involution accompanied by a reduction in the number of thymocytes, especially in cortical CD4⁺CD8⁺ double positive and double negative subsets. Core carbon particles associated with a mixture of chemical compounds in DEP did not appear to be responsible for the DEP-induced thymic involution because carbon graphite does not affect neither the number nor the CD4/CD8 profile of thymocytes. Extraction of DEP by ether, acidic and basic solvents showed that several independent fractions including the neutral ether fraction, which contains polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), induced thymic involution. Among major PAH components of DEP, benzo[b]fluoranthene (BbF), benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), and benzo[k]fluoranthene (BkF) were very potent inducers of thymic involution at an ED50 of less than 100?ng per mouse body. Nonetheless, DEP treatment of mice with targeted disruption of genes encoding the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR), AHR nuclear translocator (ARNT), or microsomal epoxide hydolase (mEH) indicated that DEP produced thymic involution even in the absence of PAH-induced AHR/ARNT signal transduction or mEH-mediated PAH catabolism. On the other hand, BaP-mediated thymic involution was completely dependent on AHR, partially dependent on ARNT in T cells, and independent of mEH. These results indicate that DEP-induced thymic involution is mediated both by PAH-AHR/ARNT-dependent and -independent mechanisms.     

三峡库区城市化与生态环境耦合关系定量辨识

受人文社会规律支配的城市化过程与受自然规律制约的生态环境演化过程之间,通过种种复杂的胁迫与约束机制,具有双指数倒U型曲线的耦合演化规律性。如果以区域内不同城镇构成的空间样本来测算城市化与生态环境之间的耦合关系,其耦合曲线通常有以下5种型式：下降、正U、上升、倒U和再下降。该演化序列符合否定之否定的发展规律。通过相关分析、主成分分析和层次分析等方法,对三峡库区15个区县的城市化水平和生态环境状况作了综合评价,并在综合和分组两个层面对二者耦合关系进行了定量辨识。结果表明：通过空间样本反映的重庆库区城市化与生态环境耦合关系曲线为正U型,揭示出库区城市化与生态环境耦合演化的二元性;城市化与生态环境沿长江自西向东具有基本一致的变化趋势,说明现阶段库区城市化对生态环境的依赖性大于其破坏性。     

Food site residence time and female competitive relationships in wild gray-cheeked mangabeys (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Lophocebus albigena</Emphasis>)

Authors of socioecological models propose that food distribution affects female social relationships in that clumped food resources, such as fruit, result in strong dominance hierarchies and favor coalition formation with female relatives. A number of Old World monkey species have been used to test predictions of the socioecological models. However, arboreal forest-living Old World monkeys have been understudied in this regard, and it is legitimate to ask whether predominantly arboreal primates living in tropical forests exhibit similar or different patterns of behavior. Therefore, the goal of our study was to investigate female dominance relationships in relation to food in gray-cheeked mangabeys (Lophocebus albigena). Since gray-cheeked mangabeys are largely frugivorous, we predicted that females would have linear dominance hierarchies and form coalitions. In addition, recent studies suggest that long food site residence time is another important factor in eliciting competitive interactions. Therefore, we also predicted that when foods had long site residence times, higher-ranking females would be able to spend longer at the resource than lower-ranking females. Analyses showed that coalitions were rare relative to some other Old World primate species, but females had linear dominance hierarchies. We found that, contrary to expectation, fruit was not associated with more agonism and did not involve long site residence times. However, bark, a food with a long site residence time and potentially high resource value, was associated with more agonism, and higher-ranking females were able to spend more time feeding on it than lower-ranking females. These results suggest that higher-ranking females may benefit from higher food and energy intake rates when food site residence times are long. These findings also add to accumulating evidence that food site residence time is a behavioral contributor to female dominance hierarchies in group-living species.     

出生前后全氟辛烷磺酸（PFOS）暴露对大鼠额叶皮质中IGF-Ⅰ、IGF-ⅠR和IGFBP-2 mRNA水平的影响

为研究出生前后不同时期全氟辛烷磺酸(PFOS)暴露对大鼠仔鼠额叶皮质胰岛素样生长因子-Ⅰ(IGF-Ⅰ)、胰岛素样生长因子-Ⅰ受体(IGF-ⅠR)和胰岛素样生长因子结合蛋白-2(IGFBP-2)mRNA水平的影响,将28只受孕Wistar大鼠按3:2:2的比例随机分到对照(C)、低剂量(L)和高剂量(H)组中,从妊娠第0天开始分别自由摄食含0、7.2、14.4mg·kg-(1以饲料中的PFOS计)的粉末状饲料进行连续染毒至出生后28天.采用交叉哺育的方法建立出生前后均不暴露(CC)、仅出生前暴露(LC和HC)、仅出生后暴露(CL和CH)、出生前后均暴露(LL和HH)于PFOS的动物模型.采用半定量RT-PCR法检测各组仔鼠额叶皮质IGF-Ⅰ、IGF-ⅠR和IGFBP-2mRNA水平的变化.结果表明,对照组仔鼠额叶皮质IGF-Ⅰ、IGFBP-2mRNA在PD14时处于较高水平,而在PD1和PD28时水平较低;IGF-ⅠRmRNA在PD1时只处于较低水平,随年龄的增加而逐渐升高.在PD1时,暴露组仔鼠IGF-Ⅰ、IGF-ⅠR、IGFBP-2mRNA水平显著高于对照组(p<0.05).在PD14时,除LC组仔鼠IGF-ⅠRmRNA水平显著高于对照组之外,其余各暴露组仔鼠3者mRNA水平均显著低于对照组(p<0.01).此外,出生后暴露PFOS组的仔鼠额叶皮质IGF-Ⅰ、IGFBP-2mRNA水平降低程度比出生前暴露PFOS组仔鼠更高.在PD28时,暴露组仔鼠IGF-Ⅰ、IGF-ⅠRmRNA水平显著低于对照组(p<0.01),而IGFBP-2mRNA水平与对照组之间的差异无显著性(p>0.05).出生前后不同时期暴露PFOS导致大鼠仔鼠额叶皮质IGF-Ⅰ、IGF-ⅠR和IGFBP-2mRNA水平变化,为PFOS发育神经毒性的研究提供了一定的线索.     

Source apportionment studies for particulates (PM10) in Kozhikode,South Western India using a combined receptor model

In the present work, source apportionment studies were carried out for particulate matter – one among the significant pollutants as addressed by The National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Advantages and disadvantages of each receptor model were addressed using a combined receptor model which integrates Factor Analysis (FA), Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) and Chemical Mass Balance (CMB). Verification of the approach was done using sets of synthetic data as well as field data from Kozhikode. Sampling was carried out in National Institute of Technology, Calicut for a period of over 26 days with 24-hour sampling. The sampling gave an average PM concentration value in the range of 29.174–129.176 µg m^?3. Studies using field data revealed five dominant sources and their contributions obtained from CMB and PMF were compared. Soil dust (contribution from CMB: 18%; contribution from PMF: 16%), marine aerosol (17%; 25%), construction and aggregate processing (46%; 11%), garden waste combustion (18%; 45%), and vehicular exhaust (1%; 3%) were major contributors in the site under study. The outcomes of the study integrated with the support of local authorities and by the acceptance of residents can definitely curb the pollution levels in the site under the study.