基于模糊聚类的PM_(2.5)拟合组分选择模型的研究

提出了一种新的PM2.5源成分谱拟合组分选择模型,在充分考虑拟合过程的物理意义的基础上,采用聚类正确率作为组分选择的依据.实验验证,该模型能够准确获取较好的拟合主组分,相比与经验选或者手动盲选所得拟合结果,我们提出的模型将成功拟合(误差范围在0~0.05之间)的比例由40%提升到83%.     

鲤体内芳香烃受体的分离纯化及其与葸的相互作用

从暴露于污染物蒽的鲤肝脏中提取出芳香烃受体,并采用紫外可见分光光度计进行最大吸收波长扫描,再通过离子交换层析法分离纯化鲤体内的芳香烃受体,并采用聚丙烯酰胺凝胶电泳对受体进行鉴定,最后通过傅里叶变换红外光谱探讨芳香烃受体与蒽结合后的结构变化.结果表明,提取的芳香烃受体在280 nm处有特征吸收峰,测得质量浓度为27.3 mg/mL.通过离子交换层析法纯化了单一组分的受体蛋白质,其相对分子质量约为110 kD.测定了芳香烃受体的红外光谱,与蒽结合后其在一定波段的谱峰发生了明显位移,表明污染物配体蒽能与芳香烃受体结合,并对其蛋白二级结构产生明显影响.     

The Importance of Being Spatial (and Reserved): Assessing Northern Spotted Owl Habitat Relationships with Hierarchical Bayesian Models

Abstract:  Regional conservation planning increasingly draws on habitat suitability models to support decisions regarding land allocation and management. Nevertheless, statistical techniques commonly used for developing such models may give misleading results because they fail to account for 3 factors common in data sets of species distribution: spatial autocorrelation, the large number of sites where the species is absent (zero inflation), and uneven survey effort. We used spatial autoregressive models fit with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques to assess the relationship between older coniferous forest and the abundance of Northern Spotted Owl nest and activity sites throughout the species' range. The spatial random-effect term incorporated in the autoregressive models successfully accounted for zero inflation and reduced the effect of survey bias on estimates of species–habitat associations. Our results support the hypothesis that the relationship between owl distribution and older forest varies with latitude. A quadratic relationship between owl abundance and older forest was evident in the southern portion of the range, and a pseudothreshold relationship was evident in the northern portion of the range. Our results suggest that proposed changes to the network of owl habitat reserves would reduce the proportion of the population protected by up to one-third, and that proposed guidelines for forest management within reserves underestimate the proportion of older forest associated with maximum owl abundance and inappropriately generalize threshold relationships among subregions. Bayesian spatial models can greatly enhance the utility of habitat analysis for conservation planning because they add the statistical flexibility necessary for analyzing regional survey data while retaining the interpretability of simpler models.     

源解析中环境受体数据处理与扩展方法的建立

本文对包含污染源或气象条件等发生剧烈变化且数据量小的实测受体数据进行了正态扩展,得到扩展数据.同时,利用PMF和PCA模型验证了扩展方法得到的数据量是否能满足模型的要求.结果表明,扩展范围和扩展受体成分谱个数是两个影响扩展数据合理性的主要因素,最佳扩展条件为:扩展范围取标准差的0.5倍,扩展受体成分谱个数为6个.通过53 h算法标记出每个化学成分时间序列中能够代表污染源或气象条件等发生剧烈变化的值并给出对应的估计值.将与估计值的相对误差(RE)超过80%的被标记的值剔除,其余的替换成估计值,发现扩展后PCA解析结果与原始数据处理后数据解析结果基本一致,能够得到主要贡献的污染源及贡献率;若将被标记的值全部剔除后,则不适合做PCA解析;仅通过PMF验证,且扩展数据与原始数据的解析结果中污染源类的判断一致.将受体数据各化学成分的时间序列中代表污染源或气象条件等发生剧烈变化的值替换成53 h算法给出的估计值,对于受体数据量小且用无源成分谱的多元统计方法解析无法给出结果的情况下的源解析有更大价值.     

EFFECTS OF SIMULATED CLOUD SEEDING ON STREAMFLOW OF SELECTED WATERSHEDS IN PENNSYLVANIA1

A mathematical model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of five small watersheds in central Pennsylvania. Continuous hydrographs for the 6-month period, April to September 1964, were simulated. Synthesized rainfall cycles consisting of increasing rainfall by 10, 20, and 30 percent to simulate the effects of cloud seeding were processed through the watershed model to determine the effects on low flow augmentation. Other rainfall cycles used consisted of increasing every third storm by 30 percent and of developing a rainfall cycle by processing daily radiosonde data through a mathematical cumulus cloud model to obtain a prediction of rainfall following seeding. A comparison of actual and predicted hydrographs indicated that simulated cloud seeding resulted in significant monthly and seasonal water yields. In general, the results of the study appear to indicate that on a theoretical basis cloud seeding would be a feasible method of augmenting low stream-flow during the summer months on watersheds in the northern Appalachian region.     

A SELF-VERIFYING HYBRID COMPUTER MODEL OF RIVER-BASIN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT. As demands upon available water supplies increase, there is an accompanying increase in the need to assess the downstream consequences resulting from changes at specific locations within a hydrologic system. The problem is approached in this study by hybrid computer simulation of the hydrologic system. Modeling concepts are based upon the development of basic relationships which describe the various hydrologic processes. Within a system these relationships are linked by the continuity-of-mass principle. Spatial resolution is achieved by considering the modeled areas as a series of subbasins. The time increment adopted for the model is one month, so that time varying quantities are expressed in terms of mean monthly values. The model is general in nature and is applied to a particular hydrologic system through a programmed verification procedure whereby model coefficients are evaluated for the particular system. In this study the model is applied to the Bear River basin of western Wyoming, southern Idaho, and northern Utah. Comparisons between observed and computed outflow hydrographs show good agreement. The utility of the model is demonstrated by predicting the effects of various possible water resource management alternatives. The verified hybrid computer program can be digitized for application to the digital computer.     

CHLOROPHYLL-BIOMASS-NUTRIENT RELATIONSHIPS FOR NATURAL ASSEMBLAGES OF FLORIDA PHYTOPLANKTON1

Parallel determination of phytoplankton biomass and chlorophyll a concentration were made on spring and summer phytoplankton samples collected from 165 Florida lakes. There was a significant correlation between chlorophyll a concentration and phytoplankton biomass (r=0.80; P < 0.01). Chlorophyll content per unit phytoplankton biomass ranged over two orders of magnitude. Nitrogen seemed to be a major factor influencing the chlorophyll content of Florida algae. Multiple regression analyses indicated that phytoplankton biomass was dependent on both the total phosphorus and total nitrogen concentration. Nutrient-phytoplankton and Secchi-phytoplankton relationships for the Florida lakes had higher coefficients of determination if chlorophyll a concentrations rather than phytoplankton biomass data were used in regression analyses.     

Changes in interacting species with disturbance

Human-influenced changes in the diversity and abundance of native wildlife in a southern boreal forest area, which became a national park in 1975, are used to develop working hypotheses for predicting and subsequently measuring the effects of disturbance or restoration programs on groups of interacting species. Changes from presettlement conditions began with early 1900 hunting, which eliminated woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and elk (Cervus elaphus), and reduced moose (Alces alces) to the low numbers which still persist. Increases in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), as these other cervid species became less abundant or absent, provided enough alternative food to sustain the system's carnivores until plant succession on previously burned or logged areas also caused deer to decline. With increased competition for reduced food, carnivore species also became less abundant or absent and overexploited some prey populations. The abilities of interacting species to maintain dynamically stable populations or persist varied with their different capacities to compensate for increased exploitation or competition. These relationships suggested a possible solution to the problem of predicting the stability of populations in disturbed systems. For the 1976–1985 period, a hypothesis that the increased protection of wildlife from exploitation in a national park would restore a more diverse, abundant, and productive fauna had to be rejected.     

真鲷去毒相关基因cDNA序列的克隆与肝脏组成型表达分析

赤潮发生时产生的一些海洋生物毒素对人类和海洋动物的安全形成潜在的威胁甚至导致死亡.为从分子水平探讨鱼类中海洋藻毒素的去毒分子机理,采用RT-PCR法克隆了真鲷(Pagrus major)肝脏芳香烃受体核转位蛋白(ARNT)和I时相异生素代谢酶细胞色素P4501A(CYP1A)基因cDNA核心序列,同时,应用半定量RT-PCR方法,以β-肌动蛋白作为外参照,在其指数期增长的范围内研究了芳香烃受体(AHR)、ARNT、CYP1A、II时相异生素代谢酶alpha型谷胱甘肽S-转移酶(GSTA1、GSTA2)、rho型谷胱甘肽S-转移酶(GSTR)、热休克蛋白70(HSP70)基因组成型表达水平.结果发现,真鲷ARNT、CYP1A基因cDNA核心序列片段分别长438bp和908bp,分别编码146和302个氨基酸.序列同源性分析发现,真鲷与门齿鲷(Stenotomus chrysops)、石首鱼(Micropogon undulatus)ARNT基因氨基酸序列同源性高达97.2%、95.2%,与斑马鱼(Brachydanio rerio)、人、大鼠、小鼠ARNT同源性较低(77.2%～79.3%).真鲷与门齿鲷、金头鲷(Sparus auratus)、欧洲川鲽(Rhombus maximus)、欧洲海鲈(Dicentrachus labrax)CYP1A基因氨基酸序列同源性较高,为84.8%～94.0%,与斑马鱼、人、小鼠CYP1A同源性较低,为59.6%～77.8%.真鲷肝脏AHR、ARNT、CYP1A、GSTA1、GSTA2、GSTR和HSP70基因组成型表达水平分别为(25.32±6.56)%、(26.22±4.24)%、(146.5±16.06)%、(55.42±3.75)%、(48.82±10.89)%、(79.47±3.13)%、(107.42±14.34)%.