Probabilistic Linkage of Police and Emergency Department Sources of Information on Motor-Vehicle Injury Cases: a Proposal for Improvement

Data on traffic injury cases that includes both the crash circumstances and the health outcome is a key tool for creating appropriate motor-vehicle injury prevention policies. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of the probabilistic linkage of police and emergency department data relating to motor-vehicle injury cases in Barcelona. A probabilistic linkage process was performed using local police reports (n = l2,481) and hospital emergency department data (n = 16,733) for all traffic injury cases that occurred in 1997. In almost two out of every three matched pairs for the injured person, at least five of the seven variables coincided, and in 7.3% of the cases all variables coincided. This work has allowed the empirical development of combined methods for the linkage of police and healthcare sources of information at the local level, which are the preliminary steps towards the construction of a data base that would include full information on the circumstances and the consequences of motor-vehicle crashes.     

浅谈四级环境监测站档案管理工作

简述了环境监测档案在环境保护、生态建设、社会经济发展中的重要价值,分析了当前四级环境监测档案管理中人员培养、信息化建设、保密管理等存在问题,提出,应完善档案管理设备,引进档案管理专业人才,落实档案管理职责,制定相关制度,加强档案密级管理,加快档案信息化建设.     

Refuge‐Effect Hypothesis and the Demise of the Dodo

The Dodo was last sighted on the inshore island of Ile d'Ambre in 1662, nearly 25 years after the previous sighting on the mainland of Mauritius. It has been suggested that its survival on the inshore island is representative of the refuge effect. Understanding what constitutes significant persistence is fundamental to conservation. I tested the refuge‐effect hypothesis for the persistence of the Dodo (Raphus cucullatus) on an inshore island beyond that of the mainland population. For a location to be considered a refuge, most current definitions suggest that both spatial and temporal isolation from the cause of disturbance are required. These results suggest the island was not a refuge for the Dodo because the sighting in 1662 was not temporally isolated from that of the mainland sightings. Furthermore, with only approximately 350 m separating Ile d'Ambre from the mainland of Mauritius, it is unlikely this population of Dodos was spatially isolated. Hipótesis del Efecto Refugio y la Desaparición del Dodo     

Identifying Anomalous Reports of Putatively Extinct Species and Why It Matters

Abstract:  As species become very rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can stir controversy, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We used quantitative methods to identify reports that do not fit prior sighting patterns. We also examined the effects of including records that meet different evidentiary standards on quantitative extinction assessments for four charismatic bird species that might be extinct: Eskimo Curlew ( Numenius borealis ), Ivory-billed Woodpecker ( Campephilus principalis ), Nukupu`u ( Hemignathus lucidus ), and O`ahu `Alauahio ( Paroreomyza maculata ). For all four species the probability of there being a valid sighting today, given the past pattern of verified sightings, was estimated to be very low. The estimates of extinction dates and the chance of new sightings, however, differed considerably depending on the criteria used for data inclusion. When a historical sighting record lacked long periods without sightings, the likelihood of new sightings declined quickly with time since the last confirmed sighting. For species with this type of historical record, therefore, new reports should meet an especially high burden of proof to be acceptable. Such quantitative models could be incorporated into the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List criteria to set evidentiary standards required for unconfirmed sightings of "possibly extinct" species and to standardize extinction assessments across species.     

降雨资料时间序列长度对降雨侵蚀力平均值置信度的影响

降雨资料时间序列长度是计算多年平均降雨侵蚀力过程中的重要不确定性因素.论文以中国601个气象站1980-2009年逐月降雨资料为数据源,利用Wischmeier经验公式计算了各气象站逐年降雨侵蚀力(R因子),用简单随机抽样方法抽取样本容量分别为30 a、 20 a、 10 a和5 a 四种不同的R值样本,计算了R平均值相对允许误差10%和25%条件下抽样估计的置信度.结果表明:降雨资料的时间序列长度对R平均值的估计置信度有显著影响;R平均值置信度存在明显的地域差异,长江以南、 青藏高原东部以及河西走廊南部的祁连山地区置信度较高;在降雨资料有限的情况下,必须根据土壤侵蚀研究的精度要求分析R平均值的抽样误差及其置信度,以保证土壤侵蚀定量预报的客观性与准确性.     

营销管理信息系统

本文从营销管理信息系统的构成、营销管理信息系统与企业营销过程的关系、营销管理信息系统的作用、内部记录系统、营销决策支持系统等几个方面对企业的营销管理信息系统进行了浅显的讨论。     

山西省空间运输联系的时空演化研究

对1990年以来山西省的客、货运状况进行了分析，总结出该区域空间运输联系的时空演化特征：山西省客、货运分布的廊道效应凸现，中心城市的极化效应逐渐减弱，与环渤海地区的货物交流日益密切，交流物种以煤炭、原材料为主，并对这些特征的影响因素进行了具体剖析，认为城市、生产力、路网的布局、对外联系、产业结构是影响山西省空间运输联系的主要因素。     

桥(门)式起重机安全运行监控记录装置的研制

针对桥式、门式起重机结构、运行和事故特点,应用微电子技术、集成电路和软件技术,研究开发由拱度监测、起重量监测、起升钢丝绳偏角监测、起升高度监测、制动器性能监测以及大车行走同步监测等6个模块组成的安全运行监控记录装置,对桥式、门式起重机运行中可能产生的安全隐患进行实时监测,并实现这些参数的实时显示、危险报警和紧急控制,对该装置的信号采集、传送、处理以及各功能模块之间的接口对接进行较详细的阐述。实例应用表明,该装置选择的6个监控参数能实现预期的安全保护功能和监控目的。     

应对城市重大安全事件的应急资源联动研究

对应对重大安全事件应急资源联动进行界定,从横向和纵向两个角度进行分析,在此基础上提出两种应急资源联动的实现方式,即城市内的"基于Multi-Agent系统城市应急资源联动网络方式"以及城际间的"基于Multi-Hub的都市圈应急资源联动网络方式";同时探讨实现应急资源联动的基础保障,并提出应对城市重大安全事件的应急资源联动机制;通过良好的机制保障,实现应急资源的联动,有效提高资源的利用率和政府应对重大突发事件的能力,从而创造安全稳定的城市环境。     

综掘工作面气水联动除尘装置影响因素及应用效果分析

为掌握气水联动除尘装置影响因素及现场除尘效果,以便更好应用于现场实际。基于煤矿综掘工作面长压短抽通风控除尘系统,利用数值仿真和正交实验设计分析方法,系统研究除尘装置叶片参数、进风量和进风口位置等因素对除尘效果的影响规律。研究结果表明：叶片安装角为40°,扭转角为4°时,除尘器入口处负压值和进风量最大,而吸风口距工作面5 m、吸风量≥300 m³/min时的除尘效果较好。控除尘系统采用气水联动除尘装置后,各测点全尘除尘效率提高了40.8%～55.4%,呼吸性粉尘除尘效率提高了31.4%～41.3%,应用效果良好。