Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

边坡变形时序非线性判定及混沌预测研究

以探讨边坡变形性质及混沌预测可行性为目的,基于混沌理论利用相空间重构技术对其变形时间序列进行混沌特征判定,试验显示变形系统具有混沌特性,可用混沌相关理论进行研究;基于混沌相空间重构技术,笔者构建了多种混沌预测模型进行混沌预计研究,分析各类模型的工程实际应用效果;针对单次监测时序预测精度较低的问题,提出累加时序预测方案,训练结果显示,短期预测精度变形累计值基本控制在5%以内,高程值预测相对误差均低于1%,预测精度较高,可以用于工程实际。     

基于人工神经网络理论的建筑物火灾安全评价研究

依据建筑物火灾危险性的影响因素,应用人工神经网络理论及系统安全方法,建立了建筑物火灾危险性的评价指标体系,该方法摆脱了评价过程中的随机性和参评人员主观上的不确定性及其认识上的模糊性等缺点,大大提高了准确性。为了验证评价模型的准确性,将该理论应用到某高校图书馆火灾危险性评价中,快速、准确地得到了安全评价结果,取得了满意效果,为建筑物防火设计以及安全管理提供了可行的依据。     

Optimal Design of a Multi-Pollutant Air Quality Monitoring Network in a Metropolitan Region Using Kaohsiung, Taiwan as an Example

An air quality monitoring network (AQMN) usually performs the basic function of assessment of regional air quality and demonstration of compliance with ambient air quality standards in an urban area. Different pollutants, however, may present different characteristic variabilities due to their specific emission patterns, rates of diffusion, and transport and transformation behaviors. But the costs of siting in a pollutant-specific monitoring network would be higher than that for a common network with respect to several pollutants monitored simultaneously. This paper presents a survey of multi-pollutant design principles and optimal searches for siting patterns of an AQMN using both simulation and optimization models as a combined tool. While conservative, quasi-stable, and reactive pollutants are considered in the design principles, cost, coverage effectiveness, and spatial correlation characteristics are included in the multi-criteria decision making process. For illustrative purpose, a series of technical settings and two types of objectives were examined in the case study for the city of Kaohsiung in Taiwan.     

大气监测网络通信系统设计与实现

根据监测网络通信的特点,设计了大气监测网络通信体系,并在系统中引入了学习算法和缓存机制,有效地提高了大气监测网络通信系统的灵活性和效率。     

B—P网络逐步聚类法在环境测点优选中的应用

将Ｂ－Ｐ网络原理与逐步聚类分析思想相结合,用于环境测点聚类优选。该方法用于水清河几个监测断面的优选结果是符合客观实际的。     

对重庆城镇网络建设的探讨

在分析重庆直辖市城镇化现状的基础上,针对重庆城镇网络中存在的问题,依据重庆发展城镇网络的优势,提出了建立新的城镇网络扔基本思路和构想,相关的对策与建议。     

江苏数字地震台网地震定位能力分析

依据江苏数字地震台网的几何布局 ,对区域上设定的不同震级和震源位置的可能事件 ,作了以下两点考虑。 (1)根据不同震级地震的监测范围 ,确定了相应的定位子台组合。 (2 )对同一地震事件 ,考虑到震相分析P震相和S震相测量精度上的差异 ,引入了不同的标准误差σP 和σS。在此基础上 ,通过模拟地震波理论走时和对走时矩阵的奇异值分解方法 ,计算了估计震源参数标准误差的参量空间协方差矩阵值 ,给出了标准误差理论值等值线图 ,用此方法讨论分析了江苏数字地震台网的地震定位能力。     

江苏数字地震台网台址噪声谱分析

江苏数字地震台网已建设改造了 8个台站。对 8个台站记录到的背景噪声进行定量分析 ,测定背景噪声的地动速度均方根值 (RMS)、有效测量动态范围 (D有效)和噪声功率谱。结果表明 :受台基和海潮等观测环境的影响 ,大部分台站的地动速度RMS值高于 2 × 1 0 -8m/s,降低D有效 值。背景噪声功率谱峰值频率为 2 5～ 3 0Hz。这些定量分析为了解数字地震台网的实际监测水平提供了可靠依据     

无线传感器网络在环境监测中的应用

介绍了一种基于无线传感器网络的环境监测系统组成及架构,讨论了系统网络节点、网关的硬件设计,并对基于TinyOS的应用程序组件结构和节点工作流程做了说明。