Predicting the conservation status of data‐deficient species

There is little appreciation of the level of extinction risk faced by one‐sixth of the over 65,000 species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Determining the status of these data‐deficient (DD) species is essential to developing an accurate picture of global biodiversity and identifying potentially threatened DD species. To address this knowledge gap, we used predictive models incorporating species’ life history, geography, and threat information to predict the conservation status of DD terrestrial mammals. We constructed the models with 7 machine learning (ML) tools trained on species of known status. The resultant models showed very high species classification accuracy (up to 92%) and ability to correctly identify centers of threatened species richness. Applying the best model to DD species, we predicted 313 of 493 DD species (64%) to be at risk of extinction, which increases the estimated proportion of threatened terrestrial mammals from 22% to 27%. Regions predicted to contain large numbers of threatened DD species are already conservation priorities, but species in these areas show considerably higher levels of risk than previously recognized. We conclude that unless directly targeted for monitoring, species classified as DD are likely to go extinct without notice. Taking into account information on DD species may therefore help alleviate data gaps in biodiversity indicators and conserve poorly known biodiversity. Predección del Estado de Conservación de Especies con Deficiencia de Datos     

Framing the relationship between people and nature in the context of European conservation

A key controversy in conservation is the framing of the relationship between people and nature. The extent to which the realms of nature and human culture are viewed as separate (dualistic view) or integrated is often discussed in the social sciences. To explore how this relationship is represented in the practice of conservation in Europe, we considered examples of cultural landscapes, wildlife (red deer, reindeer, horses), and protected area management. We found little support, for a dualistic worldview, where people and nature are regarded as separate in the traditional practice of conservation in Europe. The borders between nature and culture, wild and domestic, public land and private land, and between protected areas and the wider landscape were blurred and dynamic. The institutionalized (in practice and legislation) view is of an interactive mutualistic system in which humans and nature share the whole landscape. However, more dualistic ideals, such as wilderness and rewilding that are challenging established practices are expanding. In the context of modern day Europe, wilderness conservation and rewilding are not valid for the whole landscape, although it is possible to integrate some areas of low‐intervention management into a wider matrix. A precondition for success is to recognize and plan for a plurality of values concerning the most valid approaches to conservation and to plan for this plurality at the landscape scale.     

Effects of roost specialization on extinction risk in bats

Understanding causes and consequences of ecological specialization is of major concern in conservation. Specialist species are particularly vulnerable to human activities. If their food or habitats are depleted or lost, they may not be able to exploit alternative resources, and population losses may result. We examined International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List bat data and the number of roosts used per species (accounting for phylogenetic independence) to determine whether roost specialization is correlated with extinction risk. We found a significant correlation between the IUCN Red List category and the number of roost types used. Species that use fewer roost types had a higher risk of extinction. We found that caves and similar structures were the most widely used roost types, particularly by species under some level of risk of extinction. Many critically endangered, endangered, or vulnerable species used natural roosts exclusively, whereas less threatened species used natural and human‐made roosts. Our results suggest that roost loss, particularly in species that rely on a single roost type, may be linked to extinction risk. Our focus on a single life history trait prevented us from determining how important this variable is for extinction risk relative to other variables, but we have taken a first step toward prioritizing conservation actions. Our results also suggest that roost specialization may exacerbate population declines due to other risk factors, such as hunting pressure or habitat loss, and thus that management actions to preserve species under risk of extinction should prioritize protection of roosting sites.     

基于生态博物馆理念的红色旅游发展模式——以重庆市城口县为例

如何突破资源瓶颈,推动发展模式转型,提升发展效益,是当前老少边穷地区红色旅游发展亟待解决的问题。以重庆市城口县为例,在回顾生态博物馆理念的演进过程和核心论题的基础上,提出了红色生态博物馆模式,并从空间发展形态、价值传播方式、项目开发方式和经济效益来源等四方面对其内涵进行了阐述。     

元氏煤矿下组煤开采的可行性及防治水措施的探讨

在分析区域及井田水文地质条件基础上,通过对井下岩层含水性的和防治水措施的研究,提出了在现有条件下加强对井下水的治理,加强防、探、固、堵、隔、研的防治水方针执行,降低奥灰水对煤层开采威胁,实现带压开采,减少突水造成淹井的影响.结合现有勘探资料基础,就下组煤开采可行性及其安全开采防治水措施进行初步讨论,并提出建议和措施.     

红色黏土对磷的吸附性能及其机理初探

研究了采自江西鹰潭和江苏宜兴2地荒地亚层(20～40 cm)11种红色黏土的理化性质,比较了其对2种不同质量浓度(35和50 mg.L-1)磷酸二氢钾溶液中磷的吸附性能。结果表明,11种红色黏土对35和50 mg.L-1磷标准溶液的磷吸附量分别为0.52～0.86和0.52～1.18 mg.g-1,其中采自江苏的S9土样对2种浓度磷标准溶液的磷去除率均达90%以上;红色黏土中的铁、铝氧化物是除磷的主要控制因素,溶液中的磷主要与红色黏土中铁、铝氧化物相结合形成难溶性Fe-P和Al-P,土壤氧化铝含量与除磷效果呈显著正相关。可以通过向红色黏土及其他吸附剂中加入适量的铁、铝氧化物以提高对磷的吸附性能。     

2016年京津冀地区红色预警时段PM2.5污染特征与浓度控制效果

2016年12月京津冀地区发生一次重污染过程,北京和天津于12月16日20：00至12月21日24：00,河北省（除张家口、承德和秦皇岛）于12月16日00：00至12月22日18：00发布了重污染红色预警.为研究重污染过程与应急措施的控制效果,基于环境监测数据与模型模拟结果对本次重污染过程的污染物浓度、天气形势与气团输送、区域传输和减排效果进行了研究.本次重污染过程中各地市PM_2.5平均浓度均超过200 μg·m^-3,小时均值峰值为834.5 μg·m^-3.重污染期间气象条件非常不利于污染物扩散,低压控制与气团传输加剧了污染过程.各地市平均本地贡献为47.1%,受天气形势影响传输效果存在一定差异.本次红色预警期间京津冀地区PM_2.5浓度平均下降比例为27.6%,减排效果明显.如果提前实施重污染应急措施,可以使PM_2.5下降浓度有一定提升.提前2 d实施可以使PM_2.5浓度平均下降比例增加4.4%,提前3 d以上效果提升不明显.     

基于R语言的非点源颗粒态磷指数构建及应用——以丘陵红壤区小流域为例

以南方丘陵红壤区典型小流域为例,构建了基于R语言的流域非点源颗粒态磷污染指数并进行应用.结果表明,（1）流域土壤侵蚀模数在0.7~15244.2t/（km²·a）之间,超出南方丘陵红壤区容许土壤侵蚀量的区域占流域面积59%;平均非点源颗粒态磷产生强度为0.86kg/hm²,超出非点源磷流失阈值的区域占流域面积14%.流域侵蚀等级以微、轻度为主,但中度及以上强度区域以较小的面积（7.2%）贡献了较大比例的流域侵蚀产生量（35%）和输出量（43%）、以及非点源颗粒态磷输出量（31%）.（2）识别的关键源区占流域面积14%,贡献了65%和58%的侵蚀土壤和颗粒态磷输出负荷;主要分布在近河道的坡地（<25°,水文距离≤800m）,林地、耕地、园地是主要土地利用类型组成.（3）过量施肥导致的土壤磷素富集、强降雨条件下低丘缓坡地带的高易蚀性是关键源区形成的主因.研究进一步对关键源区进行分类分区,提出了以水土保持、配方施肥、工程治理为核心的非点源颗粒态磷污染治理组合措施.研究为丘陵红壤区流域非点源颗粒态磷污染的防治提供了较为系统完善的思路.     

红色旅游资源开发中敬畏感与自豪感对游客文明旅游行为意向的驱动机制

在我国大力推进文明旅游示范区和示范单位建设的时代背景下,引导和培育红色旅游景区游客的文明旅游行为,对于推动新时期发扬红色传统、传承红色基因和实现红色旅游资源的可持续开发具有重要的意义。基于规范激活理论、敬畏原型理论和社会认同理论,统筹考虑红色精神弘扬和红色文化传承功能,构建纳入敬畏感和自豪感情感因素的游客文明旅游行为意向的理论分析框架,选择我国红色旅游代表性景区台儿庄古城、岳麓山、陆军讲武堂旧址等作为案例调研地,运用结构方程模型和层级回归模型,实证检验在红色旅游资源开发中促进游客实施文明旅游行为的关键因素、作用机制及其驱动路径。研究发现：（1）在红色旅游资源开发情景中,后果意识、责任归属、道德规范与游客文明旅游行为意向之间的假设关系得到了验证。（2）敬畏感通过道德规范显著正向影响游客实施文明旅游行为,游客体验到的敬畏感越多,则感受到实施文明旅游行为的道德责任越多,且实施文明旅游行为的可能性越大。自豪感对道德规范和文明旅游行为意向没有显著正向影响,游客在红色旅游景区体验到的自豪感未能在促进游客文明道德责任提升和实施文明旅游行为中发挥作用。（3）景区知名度负向调节道德规范与文明旅游行为意向的正向关系,景区知名度较高时,道德规范对文明旅游行为意向的正向影响较小。因此,应增强游客对不文明行为的消极后果认知,提升游客负责任意识和道德责任,营造红色旅游的庄严氛围,激发游客的敬畏感,高度重视知名红色旅游景区的文明示范和引领,以期为我国红色旅游资源的可持续开发提供决策参考。     

中国红色旅游经典景点空间分布格局及其影响因素异质性

红色旅游是传承革命文化、推动爱国主义教育常态化和大众化、促进革命老区经济发展的重要方式。通过构建理论分析框架系统,综合运用多种空间分析方法与回归模型,对中国公布的300处红色旅游经典景区共763个景点的空间分布格局及影响因素异质性进行研究,并提出发展模式及对策。研究表明：（1）经典景点空间分布受资源、环境、社会和经济四大子系统综合影响;（2）核心区空间分布较其他旅游景区分散,形成7个一级核心区、7个及两大连片二级核心区、低密度与较低密度区等,空间关联性差异较大,关联效应伴随空间尺度缩小而减弱;（3）空间分布影响因素异质性明显,影响程度为红色旅游资源>海拔>政策力度>坡度>交通设施>市场需求>资源联动>消费水平;（4）提出采取网络、节点、廊道、共生—联动、跨区共促等发展模式及对策。研究可为红色旅游发展与管理、跨区联合等提供科学决策依据。