重大危险源区域事故应急非结构化模糊决策应用研究

针对目前我国应对重大危险源突发事故的管理和决策主要依赖于相关领导或专家掌握的知识及经验的现状,将非结构化模糊决策方法(Non-structural Fuzzy Decision Method,NSFDM)和事故后果模拟方法相结合,以区域范围内受重大危险源潜在事故影响的企业为决策对象,以减小事故影响范围,降低事故严重程度为目标,建立起重大危险源区域事故应急决策的多准则决策方法,以期帮助安监职能部门优化配置应急救援资源,提高应急响应绩效,减少国家和人民的经济和财产损失。以广州市某公司丙烷储罐区为实例,在对其进行沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸(Boiling Liquid Expanding Va-por Explosion,BLEVE)事故模拟的基础上,运用非结构化模糊决策方法,对该丙烷储罐区BLEVE事故的处理,提供了应急决策支持。     

可持续发展与区域环境规划

可持续发展理论对区域环境规划提出了新的要求。本文介绍了可持续发展与传统发展模式的不同之处，并对如何将可持续发展理念融入到区域环境规划的各个阶段中，提出了相关建议。     

西藏浪卡子至洛扎公路沿线的地质灾害

西藏浪卡子至洛扎公路是西藏山南地区环线公路的西段，全长120km，集交通、外交、军事于一体。由于公路位于高寒、新构造运动强烈的地区，特殊的地质背景、气候因素和地理环境，为该地区地质灾害的发生孕育了良好的条件。公路沿线的地质灾害主要有泥石流、滑坡、坍岸等，各类地质灾害影响公路总长7248m，其中泥石流42条，滑坡1处，坍岸12处。各类地质灾害对公路的建设和运营构成了极大的危害，针对各类地质灾害发育的特点。结合当地的环境和公路的等级要求，提出了切实有效的治理措施。     

ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY,THE MID‐ATLANTIC REGION,USA1

ABSTRACT: Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for unpaged streams in the Mid‐Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, and the Piedmont Physiographic Provinces of the Mid‐Atlantic Region were used to develop a set of power functions that relate streamflow to drainage area and hydraulic geometry to streamflow. For all three physiographic provinces, drainage area explained 95 to 98 percent of the variance in mean annual streamflow. Relationships between mean annual streamflow and water surface width and mean flow depth had coefficients of determination that ranged from R²= 0.55 to R²= 0.91, but the coefficient of determination between mean flow velocity and mean annual streamflow was lower (R²= 0.44 to R²= 0.54). The advantages of using the regional regression models to estimate streamflow over a conceptual model or a water balance model are its ease of application and reduced input data needs. The prediction of the regression equations were tested with data collected as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). In addition, equations to transfer streamflow from gaged to ungaged streams are presented.     

Ozone Deposition at a Forest Site in NE Bavaria

The dry deposition of ozone to aconiferous forest in northeastern Bavaria(southern Germany) was quantified during 1999with both the eddy correlation method and a bigleaf model. The model included parameterizationsof the atmospheric transfer resistances fromdirect measurements, stomatal resistance from aplant ecological model, and an estimation of thecuticle resistance as function of leaf wetness.Early in the season, the measured and themodelled deposition fluxes were in goodagreement, although the modelled fluxes tended tounderestimate the measured ones. Thisunderestimation was more pronounced in the latesummer, when high nocturnal fluxes werefrequently measured. The model parameterizationof the cuticle and the stomatal resistances didnot allow for such high fluxes. In these cases,the 24 hour average of the measured fluxes wereup to 4.5 times higher than the modelled ones.The reasons for these large discrepancies remainunknown. However, assigning the unaccounted partof the deposition to a nonstomatal surfacedeposition pathway, a new parameterization of therespective resistance yielded an average value of300 s m^-1. It exhibited a decreasing trendthrough the vegetation period.     

Allocating anthropogenic pollutant emissions over space: application to ozone pollution management

An inventory of volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions is an important tool for the management of ground-level ozone pollution. This paper has two broad aims: it illustrates the potential of a geographic information system (GIS) for enhancing an existing spatially-aggregated, anthropogenic emissions inventory (EI) for Tucson, AZ, and it discusses the ozone-specific management implications of the resulting spatially-disaggregated EI. The main GIS-related methods include calculating emissions for specific features, spatially disaggregating region-wide emissions totals for area sources, and adding emissions from various point sources. In addition, temporal allocation factors enable the addition of a multi-temporal component to the inventory. The resulting inventory reveals that on-road motor vehicles account for approximately 50% of VOC and NOx emissions annually. On-road motor vehicles and residential wood combustion are the largest VOC sources in the summer and winter months, respectively. On-road motor vehicles are always the largest NOx sources. The most noticeable weekday vs. weekend VOC emissions differences are triggered by increased residential wood combustion and increased lawn and garden equipment use on weekends. Concerning the EI's uncertainties and errors, on-road mobile, construction equipment, and lawn and garden equipment are identified as sources in the most need of further investigation. Overall, the EIs spatial component increases its utility as a management tool, which might involve visualization-driven analyses and air quality modeling.     

噪声背景值对噪声监测结果的影响

环境背景噪声对边界噪声监测结果有没有影响,有多大的影响,本文就此作了一些探讨,就背景噪声对监测结果修正提出了一些看法。笔者认为：测量值与背景的差值超过１０分贝时,可以忽略背景值对测量结果的影响;测量值与背景值差值在３－１０分贝时,根据公式Ｌ测＝１０Ｌｇ「１０＾０．１Ｌ实际＋１０＾０．１Ｌ背」计算出经背景值修正后的实际值Ｌ实际;当测量值与背景值的差值小于３分贝时,应重新选时间测定。     

The strategic gap in air-quality management

The successful management of atmospheric pollution is best achieved when the benefits of controls can be clearly demonstrated to those who the controls affect. There is a need to demonstrate to a population that change will benefit the social and biophysical aspects of that population’s environment as a whole. This paper suggests that policy-makers need to demonstrate clearly the advantages of a change in behaviour for the local environment while concurrently minimising the life-style costs of the people whose co-operation is needed to bring that change about. This requires an improved understanding of the activities affected and the message and media by which environmental benefits can be communicated in the light of that understanding.Using the example of tropospheric ozone, this paper argues that air-quality management requires close regional co-ordination which can facilitate the establishment and implementation of local policy options. The ability of the UK National Air Quality Strategy to achieve this in its present form is discussed and the existence of a strategic gap between the current approach to air-quality management and the major issues surrounding air quality considered.     

21世纪初我国粮食供需的新空间格局

利用2000-2003年县级统计数据,揭示21世纪初我国粮食供需的空间格局。我国粮食供需平衡以东西分异规律为主,其次是南北分异。地势第二级阶梯以东,主要余粮区分布最广,北方明显多于南方;胡焕庸线以西,常年缺粮区为主;两线之间,潜在缺粮区居多。东北地区、华北平原生产全国近70%的余粮。长江中下游以南地区既是我国温饱水平缺粮总数最多的地区,也是第三大余粮生产区。地势第二级阶梯上的农牧交错带,温饱水平缺粮总量列第二位,是我国粮食安全最脆弱的地区。上述地区主要位于环境变化敏感地带,粮食安全自然风险最大。因此,加强环境变化对粮食供需平衡的影响研究,对深入认识我国粮食供需平衡的稳定性具有重要的现实意义和理论价值。     

论可持续发展的区际关系内涵与我国西部大开发

本文在揭示可持续发展的宏观、中观、微观区际关系内涵的基础上,对我国西部大开发和如何协调区际关系,实现可持续发展提出了建议。