近50年湖北省降水变化特征分析

在气候变化背景下,区域降水变化波动较大。湖北地处亚热带,位于典型的季风区内,旱涝灾害比较突出,特别是水患,历来是威胁湖北的一大灾害,因此对降水时空变化进行分析研究,有很现实的意义。利用1961年以来全省65站逐日降水观测资料为基础,根据气候特征和行政区划将湖北省进行区域划分,利用多种统计分析方法,以揭示在全球气候变暖背景下湖北省各区域的降水变化事实。结果表明：湖北省平均年降水量鄂西北最少,鄂东南最多,秋季降水量的减少和冬季降水量的增加最为显著;极端降水事件的变化中,鄂西北发生站次最多,江汉平原其次,鄂西南和鄂东南最少。该结论为湖北各区域的旱涝变化趋势预估、为水资源管理和防汛抗旱工作提供科学的参考     

环境约束下的中国工业效率地区差异评价

为了对中国各地区工业进行环境约束下的效率评价,采用超效率DEA方法,利用2005~2009年各地区工业的面板数据,对31个省市的工业进行了环境约束下的效率测算,揭示了中国工业效率的总体发展情况及各地区间的差异。在进行超效率DEA评价的过程中,利用工业环境影响的社会支付意愿代表环境投入,弥补了过去研究中在处理非期望产出问题上的不足,并通过比较不同模型的评价结果,反映了环境问题对各地区工业的效率影响程度上的差异。根据效率评价结果,利用投影寻踪方法加权评分,反映了各地区工业效率的综合状况,从区域情况来看呈现东部优于中部与西部,而中部优于西部的态势。最后,根据效率评价结果,对各区域中的特殊省份进行了简要的分析,并提出了各地区工业的效率改进建议     

江苏省国内旅游经济区域差异及演变

以江苏省13个地级市为基本研究单元,采用变异系数、Theil系数、nich指数等指标定量分析了1999～2010年江苏省国内旅游经济的总体差异、内部构成、空间格局及演变。结果表明：（1）1999～2010年江苏省国内旅游经济的区域总体差异呈现先增加后缩小的特征,1999～2005年呈波动增加,2005年以后总体差异逐渐下降;（2）旅游经济区域差异的构成以苏南、苏中和苏北地区间差异为主,三大地区之间的差异奠定了江苏省国内旅游经济区域差异的基本格局,地区内差异所占比重相对较小;（3）江苏省国内旅游经济的发展水平和发展速度都呈现明显的南北梯度差异,且旅游经济区域差异的空间格局在一段时间内还将持续存在。在此基础上提出了促进江苏省区域旅游经济协调发展的对策和建议     

情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析

随着近年来自然灾害发生频次的增加与巨灾效应的不断涌现,人们对自然灾害风险分析提出了更高的要求与期望。然而,由于人们对"风险"认识的不全面与不系统,导致了灾害风险分析理论与技术水平的停滞不前。"风险是与某种不利事件有关的一种未来情景"是我们对"风险"的诠释。据该定义可知,风险不仅仅只是着眼于过去,更重要的是要展望未来;风险不再只是历史灾难的统计,而是未来不利事件情景的分析。因此,"情景分析"成为风险研究的一项新手段,它不仅摒弃了传统方法仅着眼"过去"的局限性而实现从"过去"到"现在"到"未来"合理过渡的研究思路,而且摒弃了传统方法仅限于因子统计分析的局限性而实现系统分析的研究理念。以"情景分析"为技术手段,提出了情景驱动的区域自然灾害风险分析方法,旨在探讨对风险研究思路与技术的创新。     

Optimizing Bankfull Discharge and Hydraulic Geometry Relations for Streams in New York State1

Mulvihill, Christiane I. and Barry P. Baldigo, 2012. Optimizing Bankfull Discharge and Hydraulic Geometry Relations for Streams in New York State. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 449-463. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00623.x Abstract: This study analyzes how various data stratification schemes can be used to optimize the accuracy and utility of regional hydraulic geometry (HG) models of bankfull discharge, width, depth, and cross-sectional area for streams in New York. Topographic surveys and discharge records from 281 cross sections at 82 gaging stations with drainage areas of 0.52-396 square miles were used to create log-log regressions of region-based relations between bankfull HG metrics and drainage area. The success with which regional models distinguished unique bankfull discharge and HG patterns was assessed by comparing each regional model to those for all other regions and a pooled statewide model. Gages were also stratified (grouped) by mean annual runoff (MAR), Rosgen stream type, and water-surface slope to test if these models were better predictors of HG to drainage area relations. Bankfull discharge models for Regions 4 and 7 were outside the 95% confidence interval bands of the statewide model, and bankfull width, depth, and cross-sectional area models for Region 3 differed significantly (p < 0.05) from those of other regions. This study found that statewide relations between drainage area and HG were strongest when data were stratified by hydrologic region, but that co-variable models could yield more accurate HG estimates in some local regional curve applications.     

东北地区开发规模扩张的资源环境响应演变及影响因素

提出"区域开发规模扩张的资源环境响应"的概念,并构建了区域开发规模扩张的资源环境响应指数、响应度模型及评价指标体系,通过定量分析1995-2008年东北地区开发规模扩张的资源环境响应变化及影响因素,得出以下结论:1995年以来东北地区开发规模不断扩大,而资源环境水平总体呈现出"先升后降"的波动变化态势。资源环境对东北地区开发规模扩张具有由"正响应"向"负响应"转变的特征,与此相对应,区域开发规模扩张对资源环境的影响程度也呈现出由"弱促进"向"强胁迫"变化的态势,这说明近年来在东北地区开发规模加速扩展的同时,其对区域资源环境造成的压力也日益增大。1995-2008年由经济快速增长导致的资源环境压力增长是引致东北地区开发规模扩张对资源环境影响由"正向促进"向"负向胁迫"转化的重要内部因素,而区域投资的不断增长以及工业的快速发展是东北地区开发规模扩张对资源环境影响由"弱促进"向"强胁迫"变化的主要因素。     

基于GIS的我国农村老年人口时空发展研究

以2000年、2003年、2006年和2009年4个时间点的农村老年人口数据为基础,从农村老年人口系数、老少比和养老负担3个指标对我国大陆31个地区的农村老年人口状况做了时间和空间上的对比分析。结果表明,农村老龄化发展迅速且从东部向中西部快速递进,农村老龄化的集中程度趋于降低。     

Fluorescence excitation–emission matrix spectra coupled with parallel factor and regional integration analysis to characterize organic matter humification

The present several humification indexes cannot provide the whole fluorescence information on organic matter composition and the evaluation results from them are inconsistent sometimes. In this study, fluorescence excitation–emission matrix spectra coupled with parallel factor analysis and fluorescence regional integration analysis were utilized to investigate organic matter humification, and the projection pursuit cluster (PPC) model was applied to form a suitable index for overcoming the difficulties in multi-index evaluation. The result showed that the ratio between the volume of humic- and fulvic-like fluorescence region and the volume of protein-like fluorescence region not only revealed the heterogeneity of organic matter, but also provided more accurate information on organic matter humification. In addition, the results showed that the PPC model could be used to characterize integrally the humification, and the projected characteristic value calculated from the PPC model could be used as the integrated humification evaluation index.     

Herbicide movement and dissipation at four midwestern sites

Abstract

This study was conducted to evaluate atrazine (2‐chloro‐4‐ethylamino‐6‐isopropyl‐1, 3, 5‐triazine) and alachlor (2‐chIoro‐N‐(methoxymethyl)acetamide) dissipation and movement to shallow aquifers across the Northern Sand Plains region of the United States. Sites were located at Minnesota on a Zimmerman fine sand, North Dakota on Hecla sandy loam, South Dakota on a Brandt silty clay loam, and Wisconsin on a Sparta sand. Herbicide concentrations were determined in soil samples taken to 90 cm four times during the growing season and water samples taken from the top one m of aquifer at least once every three months. Herbicides were detected to a depth of 30 cm in Sparta sand and 90 cm in all other soils. Some aquifer samples from each site contained atrazine with the highest concentration in the aquifer beneath the Sparta sand (1.28 μg L^‐1). Alachlor was detected only once in the aquifer at the SD site. The time to 50% atrazine dissipation (DT₅₀) in the top 15 cm of soil averaged about 21 d in Sparta and Zimmerman sands and more than 45 d for Brandt and Hecla soils. Atrazine DT₅₀ was correlated positively with % clay and organic carbon (OC), and negatively with % fine sand. Alachlor DT₅₀ ranged from 12 to 32 d for Zimmerman and Brandt soils, respectively, and was correlated negatively with % clay and OC and positively with % sand.     

Voluntary recycling despite disincentives

This paper assesses the determinants of take-up of a voluntary waste separation scheme, in a scenario where residents sorted, stored and paid for collection of recycling waste even though mixed waste was collected at the kerbside more conveniently, free of charge and without any quantity limits. Uptake of the scheme was positive, persistent and diverse across localities, offering an opportunity to assess the factors determining voluntary participation in the presence of disincentives. We employ a unique panel data-set (n = 4,644) from Malta, including data on recyclable waste kilogrammes collected over the first 86 weeks of the scheme's operation. Drawing on insights from environmental economics and psychology, a model is empirically estimated. Results indicate that uptake is suppressed by the initial constraints households may face and stimulated by collection frequency. Political vote is an important determinant of participation and this interacts with scheme promotion to create diverse uptake rates.