一种基于事故后果的重大危险源安全规划方法

介绍了一种基于事故后果的重大危险源安全规划方法。该方法详细阐述了“最坏”事故情景选择、事故后果阈值确定及后果伤害范围划分的方法,以危险源周边人群作为主要脆弱性目标,通过分析事故后果伤害范围和目标的脆弱性级别确定危险源与周边环境的兼容性。另外,以危险品仓储区为例,利用该方法对仓储区可能发生的事故后果影响范围进行计算,对仓储区选址的可行性进行分析。本文提出的重大危险源安全规划方法可为城市土地使用及危险源的安全规划提供参考。     

Footprints for Sustainability: The Next Steps

The concept of an ecological footprint is based on the understanding that every individual human appropriates a share of the productive and assimilative capacity of the biosphere. An ecological footprint corresponds to this exclusive biologically productive area that a defined population uses for all its resource requirements and wastes, and is expressed in terms of bioproductive space, with world-average productivity. Humanity's footprint or its aggregate ecological demand can only temporarily exceed the productive and assimilative capacity of the biosphere without liquidating and weakening the natural capital on which humanity depends fundamentally. Therefore, accounting tools for quantifying humanity's use of nature are essential for overall assessments of human impact as well as for planning specific steps towards a sustainable future.This paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the ecological footprint as an ecological accounting method, points out research needs for improvement of the analysis, and suggests potential new applications. The paper identifies ten new applications of the tool to make it applicable at various geographic scales and for a number of analytical and didactic purposes. Then nine methodological improvements are suggested that could refine the currently applied method, making assessments more sensitive to a larger number of ecological impacts. It concludes that many crucial questions pertinent to building a sustainable society can be addressed by current ecological footprint research. By making the method more complete, this tool could evolve from being largely of pedagogical use to become a strategic tool for policy analysis.     

Ecosystem services assessments in local municipal decision making in South Africa: justification for the use of a business-based approach

The ecosystem services (ES) concept is being increasingly incorporated into environmental policy formulation and management approaches. The Corporate Ecosystem Services Review (ESR) is a framework used to assess the dependence and impact that a business has on ES. The success of the corporate experience of ES assessment provides an opportunity for adaption for local authority decision making. In this paper, the ESR tool was adapted to the South African setting at a local government level, and tested at two sites in the Msunduzi Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal. In testing the tool and gathering feedback from key stakeholders, it was found that there are both opportunities and challenges to this approach. Overall, however, it provides an opportunity for the systematic inclusion of ES assessment into existing regulatory frameworks for land-use planning and Integrated Environmental Management, whether in a strategic application, at a broader spatial (municipal) scale or in a specific locale within the municipality.     

Environmental health in the complex city: a co-evolutionary approach

While public health and urban planning were closely linked in the past, today both domains are institutionally separate. In most cases, health intersects with spatial planning processes only through obligatory evaluations, such as environmental impact assessments, or restrictive environmental legislation. This institutionalisation of health criteria in most western countries has difficulty in dealing with recent environmental health challenges, leading to continual distrust and conflict between citizens and the government. This impasse has recently been discussed by academics who acknowledge the complexity of both city and health issues. It seems, however, that the full extent of the issue has not been covered yet, leading to recommendations and frameworks that are useful but fixed and retrospective. This paper moves beyond those fixed frameworks to develop a better understanding of the complexity of the current disconnect and explores ideas for a future planning approach, grounded on new ideas of co-evolutionary and adaptive planning.     

资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长:“资源诅咒”效应实证

针对"资源诅咒"研究中自然资源度量指标选取存在的科学性问题,利用资源产业空间集聚代替自然资源丰裕度和资源产业依赖度作为自然资源丰裕程度的解释变量。首先,在Krugman空间基尼系数的基础上,构建适用于测度资源产业空间集聚的计算公式,基于我国30个省(区、市)层面的数据,量化1999—2013年间资源产业的空间集聚程度,分析其排名情况和分布格局。研究显示:我国有15个省(区、市)存在资源产业空间集聚现象,这些地区大多位于长江以北,且均为自然资源富集地区。其次,构建经济增长计量模型,选取存在资源产业空间集聚现象的省(区、市)作为样本空间,并采用多种计量分析和检验方法考察资源产业空间集聚度与区域经济增长之间的直接和间接关系,分析"资源诅咒"的传导机制。研究显示:1在模型整体估计中,资源产业空间集聚的系数符号均为负,且在5%的水平上显著,说明资源产业空间集聚与区域经济增长间的关系呈现负相关,符合"资源诅咒"的基本假设。2在模型分步估计中,人力资本投资、技术创新投入和制造业发展与区域经济增长正相关,符合经典经济增长理论的逻辑关系;物质资本投资与区域经济增长负相关,可能是由于当地经济主体的消费跨期替代弹性较小,导致物质资本投资对经济增长的直接增益效应小于其对社会人力资本积累的负向效应,进而阻碍区域经济增长;政府干涉程度越高越不利于经济增长。根据研究结果,建议应明确市场调节为主、政府调控为辅的导向机制,进一步提升资源产业空间集聚程度,强化行业人员素质与技术水平匹配,逐步提高自然资源生产和利用效率,从而实现加快地区经济转型,有效促进经济可持续发展的全面提升。     

中国旅游业CO_2排放区域差异的空间分析

在旅游业节能减排形势严峻的背景下,深入研究中国旅游业CO_2排放问题,制定科学的区域节能减排政策已刻不容缓。本文首先运用"自下而上"法,估算了1993-2012年中国整体旅游业、旅游业各分部门、大陆各省区(不含西藏)旅游业CO_2排放量。在此基础上,对全国及三大地带旅游业CO_2排放的总体特征进行分析;利用Theil指数法分析了中国旅游业CO_2排放强度的区域差异、区域内差异和区域间差异;运用AreView软件对中国旅游业CO_2排放强度的省际差异进行直观图示。分析结果显示:1993-2012年,中国旅游业CO_2排放量从1 480.868×10~4t升至6 274.129×10~4t;全国及三大地带旅游业CO_2排放强度整体上呈现出先显著下降、再缓慢梯度下降的趋势;中国旅游业CO_2排放强度空间分布不均匀,东部地区旅游业CO_2排放强度低于中部和西部地区;中国旅游业CO_2排放强度的区域总体差异、区域间差异和区域内差异整体呈逐渐缩小的趋势,区域间差异对总体差异的贡献率为94%-98%,区域间差异占主导地位;中国旅游业CO_2排放强度省际差异明显,属于旅游业CO_2排放强度弱显著区的省区基本位于东部沿海地区,河北、湖南、河南、广西、甘肃和新疆等省区频繁出现在旅游业CO_2排放强度强显著区之列,因此上述省区应是中国旅游业CO_2未来节能减排的区域重点。据此提出差别化的CO_2减排对策:东部地区应通过技术改进和调整产业结构、能源消费结构来降低CO_2排放强度,并以此带动中部和西部地区旅游业节能减排;中部和西部地区应加强与东部地区合作,将提高能源使用率、降低CO_2排放强度作为旅游业减排工作的重点。     

长江中游城市群经济与生态成本空间演化模式分析

综合运用变异系数、泰尔指数及ESDA-GIS多种方法,在充分考虑传统经济影响因子的基础上,尝试引入经济发展生态成本指标,分析长江中游城市群经济综合发展水平与生态成本的空间匹配及演化模式。研究表明:经济综合发展水平高低聚集特征明显,空间极化现象是导致区域经济发展不平衡的主要原因;生态成本空间集聚现象以高高集聚和低低集聚为主,且呈现出高高集聚减少、低低集聚增多的现象,生态成本消耗有所改善;2001~2012年长江中游城市群市域经济综合发展水平与生态成本表现出越来越显著的差异化空间格局,呈现出由低经济综合发展水平-低生态成本过渡到高经济综合发展水平-高生态成本,进而发展到高经济综合发展水平-低生态成本的空间匹配模式的阶段性特征;高经济综合发展水平-高生态成本的经济发展模式仍在大部分城市中存在,经济与生态空间协调发展的潜力仍然很大。     

Environmentally compatible energy resource production—consumption pattern (case study: Iran)

Like all rapidly developing countries, the government of Iran (GOI) has to integrate environment priorities into its energy sector. In order to integrate environmental concerns into energy sector, an Energy-Environment Review (EER) may be considered as the mainstreaming tool capable of examining the interface between energy and the environment. The results of the EER should be interpreted, in the light of the objective of the 4th Five Year Development Plan in Iran, to achieve fast and sustainable growth and accelerate the transition to a market economy. In particular, the suggested actions will promote economic efficiency use of energy resources through a proper allocation of scarce resources, including environmental resources, so as to achieve economic efficiency and environmental and social protection. This paper comprises: (A) an analysis of the current situation with regards to energy production and consumption; (B) an evaluation of the growth prospects with regard to energy production and consumption; (C) the identification of environmental issues induced by the generation and use of energy and estimation of the associated costs of damages; (D) the evaluation of the extent of contribution to the climate-change phenomenon through emission of greenhouse gases; (E) the evaluation of the proposed mitigation measures for the previously identified environmental problems; and (F) conclusions and recommendations. The EER-Iran assessed the total health damage from air pollution in 2001 at about 56  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ seven billion); equivalent to 8.4% of nominal GDP. In the absence of the price reform and control policies, the EER-Iran estimated that the damage in Iran in the money of 2001, will grow to 155  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ nine billion) by 2019. This is equivalent to 10.9% of nominal GDP, i.e., a large percentage of a larger GDP. Of this total, 107  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ 8.4 billion) come from transport sector. The damage cost to the global environment from the flaring of natural gas, assessed on the basis of a carbon price of US $ 10/ton CO₂, is found to be approximately US $ 600 million per year. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Characterising the landscape of state environmental review policies and procedures in the United States: a national assessment

Following the intent of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, many states have adopted policies and procedures directing state agencies and local government units to evaluate the potential environmental impacts of development projects prior to their undertaking. In contrast to a rich literature on federal requirements, current understanding of state environmental review is narrowly focused and outdated. This paper seeks to provide information on the landscape of state environmental review policy frameworks. The paper identifies 37 states with formal environmental review requirements through a document review of state statutes, administrative rules and agency-prepared materials, and confirms this finding through a survey of state administrators. A two-tier classification is used to distinguish states based on the approach taken to address environmental review needs and the scope and depth of relevant policies and procedures implemented. This paper also provides a discussion of policy and programme attributes that may contribute to effective practice, and of the potential for adopting relevant legislation in states where environmental review is currently lacking.     

Methodology of industry scale analysis under the constraint of regional resource capacity using HSY algorithm

This paper develops a methodology of proper scale analysis for regional industry development, which can be used in industry planning with the consideration of regional resource capacities. In the face of different data sources and even data scarcity, alternative methods based on linear programming and quadratic programming algorithms for calculating the resource intensity factors are designed. Based on the empirical study of industrialization, initial scenarios of industry development were set. Using HSY algorithm, sensitive industries that may cause exceeding regional resource capacity can be identified, and the risk of exceeding can be predicted and expressed in probability. Furthermore, a proper scale range can be designed for these sensitive industries according to resource capacity. Taking the case of Dalian city in China, this paper estimated the regional urban development plan, various resources capacities were studied, and land resources were estimated to be the most critical resource for the city. The land resource depletion intensities of different industries are calculated by quadratic programming algorithm. Under the constraint of 427.56 km² available industrial land resources, the electronic and power industries have the most significant impact on total land use, if the scale of power industry exceeds 1.27 billion USD, the probability of land resource capacity breakthrough will be 50%.