ON THE MISMATCH BETWEEN DATA AND MODELS OF HYDROLOGIC AND WATER RESOURCE SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Many difficulties exist in the matching of models with data. This paper identifies elements of this problem and discusses considerations involved in model evaluation. The well known multivariate linear regression model is used to illustrate the distinctions between accuracy and precision and between estimation and prediction (because the model is commonly misused.) No amount of additional data will improve the accuracy of a poor model. A high R², while indicative of a good matching between the observed data and model estimates, is a poor criterion for judging adequacy of the model to make good predictions of future events. Model evaluation also includes the problem of introducing secondary data and proxy variables into a model. Secondary data frequently enter, for example, the mass, energy and water budget equations because of difficulties in measuring the primary variables. Proxy variables arise because of a desire to collapse a vector of incomparable values, say, of water quality into a single number. Review of the above issues indicates that model evaluation is a multi-criterion problem, often imbedded in a larger framework where models are intended to meet multiple objectives. The mismatch of models and data has increasing legal and social consequences.     

Safety with access scaffolds: development of a prototype decision aid based on accident analysis

PROBLEM: Accidents involving temporary access systems, particularly temporary scaffolds, account for a large proportion of injuries in the construction industry worldwide. METHOD: This paper outlines the development of a prototype decision aid (SCAFPASS, an abbreviation for Scaffold Planning Aid for System Safety) to promote access scaffold safety. It was guided by an examination of the root-causes and management deficiencies apparent in: (a) paper-based files of 186 access-related incidents held by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in the UK; and (b) computer-based files of 2,910 incidents appearing in the HSE database between 1997 to 2000. RESULTS: The more frequent root-causes included the fitting of defective components, unauthorized modification of the structure, omission of barriers, and errors resulting in simple, readily detectable structural faults. Common managerial deficiencies included failure to control risk, unsafe methods and procedures, and inadequate training and supervision. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: SCAFPASS aims to avoid these root-causes by improving safety management from the outset and throughout all phases of a project.     

Solid waste management in urban areas: Development and application of a decision support system

A decision support system (DSS) developed to assist the planner in decisions concerning the overall management of solid waste at a municipal scale is described. The DSS allows to plan the optimal number of landfills and treatment plants, and to determine the optimal quantities and the characteristics of the refuse that has to be sent to treatment plants, to landfills and to recycling. The application of the DSS is based on the solution of a constrained non-linear optimization problem. Various classes of constraints have been introduced in the problem formulation, taking into account the regulations about the minimum requirements for recycling, incineration process requirements, sanitary landfill conservation, and mass balance. The cost function to be minimized includes recycling, transportation and maintenance costs. The DSS has been tested on the municipality of Genova, Italy, and the results obtained are presented.     

MODELING ACTUAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM FORESTED WATERSHEDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES1

ABSTRACT: About 50 to 80 percent of precipitation in the southeastern United States returns to the atmosphere by evapotranspiration. As evapotranspiration is a major component in the forest water balances, accurately quantifying it is critical to predicting the effects of forest management and global change on water, sediment, and nutrient yield from forested watersheds. However, direct measurement of forest evapotranspiration on a large basin or a regional scale is not possible. The objectives of this study were to develop an empirical model to estimate long‐term annual actual evapotranspiration (ART) for forested watersheds and to quantify spatial AET patterns across the southeast. A geographic information system (GIS) database including land cover, daily streamflow, and climate was developed using long term experimental and monitoring data from 39 forested watersheds across the region. Using the stepwise selection method implemented in a statistical modeling package, a long term annual AET model was constructed. The final multivariate linear model includes four independent variables—annual precipitation, watershed latitude, watershed elevation, and percentage of forest coverage. The model has an adjusted R² of 0.794 and is sufficient to predict long term annual ART for forested watersheds across the southeastern United States. The model developed by this study may be used to examine the spatial variability of water availability, estimate annual water loss from mesoscale watersheds, and project potential water yield change due to forest cover change.     

营销管理信息系统

本文从营销管理信息系统的构成、营销管理信息系统与企业营销过程的关系、营销管理信息系统的作用、内部记录系统、营销决策支持系统等几个方面对企业的营销管理信息系统进行了浅显的讨论。     

东北低温冷害防御决策支持系统的概念模型

将农业气象灾害的防灾减灾成果与智能化的计算机系统相结合,建立了东北地区低温冷害防御决策支持系统的概念模型,以提高灾害决策分析水平.概述了概念模型的基本结构,介绍了其数据库、知识库和模型库的组成,以及基于这三大库结构的查询分析功能和对低温冷害发生可能性的预测防御功能,最后对今后防灾减灾智能化的决策系统的发展进行了讨论.     

The Influence of Atmospheric N Deposition on Nitrous Oxide and Nitric Oxide Fluxes and Soil Ammonium and Nitrate Concentrations

The deposition of atmospheric N to soils provides sources of available N to the nitrifying and denitrifying microbial community and subsequently influences the rate of NO and N₂O emissions from soil. We have investigated the influence of three different sources of enhanced N deposition on NO and N₂O emissions 1) elevated NH₃ deposition to woodlands downwind of poultry and pig farms, 2) increased wet cloud and occult N deposition to upland forest and moorland and 3) enhanced N deposition to trees as NO ₃ ^– and NH ₄ ⁺ aerosol. Flux measurements of NO and N₂O were made using static chambers in the field or intact and repacked soil cores in the laboratory and determination of N₂O by gas chromatography and of NO by chemiluminescence analysis. Rates of N deposition to our study sites were derived from modelled estimates of N deposition, NH₃ concentrations measured by passive diffusion and inference from measurements of the ²¹⁰Pb inventory of soils under tree canopies compared with open grassland. NO and N₂O emissions and KCl-extractable soil NH ₄ ⁺ and NO ₃ ^– concentrations all increased with increasing N deposition rate. The extent of increase did not appear to be influenced by the chemical form of the N deposited. Systems dominated by dry-deposited NH₃ downwind of intensive livestock farms or wet-deposited NH ₄ ⁺ and NO ₃ ^– in the upland regions of Britain resulted in approximately the same linear response. Emissions of NO and N₂O from these soils increased with both N deposition and KCl extractable NH ₄ ⁺ , but the relationship between NH ₄ ⁺ and N deposition (ln NH ₄ ⁺ = 0.62 ln N_deposition + 0.21, r ² = 0.33, n = 43) was more robust than the relationship between N deposition and soil NO and N₂O fluxes.     

Development of a decision support system for Prioritization of multimedia dischargers

In 1990 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began sponsoring several pilot projects in its regional offices to examine the potential benefits of adopting a multimedia approach to facility management. This approach differs from traditional practices at EPA in that facilities (dischargers regulated under permits issued by the agency) are managed based upon their cumulative impacts to all media: air, water, and land. Currently, facilities are managed by separate programs at EPA that evaluate environmental impacts from a single-media perspective. One aspect of discharger management is the necessity to allocate limited financial resources in a way that will minimize risk to human health and the environment. A careful, risk-based prioritization of facilities is one means of providing insight to the most effective strategy of allocating monitoring, inspection, and enforcement resources. Prioritization from a multimedia perspective is particularly difficult, however, since it requires translation and integration of medium-specific facility performances, management objectives, and perceptions of risk into a cumulative rating. A computerized decision support system (DSS) designed to guide management through the prioritization process from a multimedia perspective was identified as a potentially valuable tool for use in the pilot projects. This article describes the development of such a prototype, outlines the features of the completed system, and discusses its potential for use at EPA.     

ERRORS IN ESTIMATED STREAMFLOW PARAMETERS AND STORAGES FOR UNGAUGED CATCHMENTS1

ABSTRACT: For a set of 81 catchments in southeast Victoria, Australia, predictive equations were developed by least squares regression of the mean and coefficient of variation of annual Streamflow against a variety of rainfall and physiographic parameters. The data were also divided into subsets according to catchment size, subregion, or record length of investigate if the relationships differed significantly between subsets. Only the catchment area and some rainfall statistical parameters were found to be significant. Streamflow parameters predicted by the regression equations were used to estimate storage requirements in ungauged catchments. The influence of errors in the Streamflow parameters on the storage error was examined.     

Ecological limitations and appropriation of ecosystem support by shrimp farming in Colombia

Shrimp farming in mangrove areas has grown dramatically in Asia and Latin America over the past decade. As a result, demand for resources required for farming, such as feed, seed, and clean water, has increased substantially. This study focuses on semiintensive shrimp culture as practiced on the Caribbean coast of Colombia. We estimated the spatial ecosystem support that is required to produce the food inputs, nursery areas, and clean water to the shrimp farms, as well as to process wastes. We also made an estimate of the natural and human-made resources necessary to run a typical semiintensive shrimp farm. The results show that a semiintensive shrimp farm needs a spatial ecosystem support—the ecological footprint—that is 35–190 times larger than the surface area of the farm. A typical such shrimp farm appropriates about 295 J of ecological work for each joule of edible shrimp protein produced. The corresponding figure for industrial energy is 40:1. More than 80% of the ecological primary production required to feed the shrimps is derived from external ecosystems. In 1990 an area of 874–2300 km² of mangrove was required to supply shrimp postlarvae to the farms in Colombia, corresponding to a total area equivalent to about 20–50% of the country’s total mangrove area. The results were compared with similar estimates for other food production systems, particularly aquacultural ones. The comparison indicates that shrimp farming ranks as one of the most resource-intensive food production systems, characterizing it as an ecologically unsustainable throughput system. Based on the results, we discuss local, national, and regional appropriation of ecological support by the semiintensive shrimp farms. Suggestions are made for how shrimp farming could be transformed into a food production system that is less environmentally degrading and less dependent on external support areas.