加速寿命试验三参数威布尔分布的极小变异-极大似然估计

目的 在加速试验中,对寿命服从三参数威布尔分布的产品进行可靠性评估与寿命预测,解决形状参数小于1时传统方法难以计算的问题。方法 利用三参数威布尔分布与指数分布之间的转换关系,以变异系数误差最小为优化目标,在确定最优位置参数估计值的基础上,应用拟极大似然方法估计分布模型中的其余参数,建立极小变异–极大似然估计（MV-MLE）。根据加速寿命试验中失效机理不变的原则,在失效机理等同条件下,将该方法推广至多应力水平下的可靠寿命评估。结果 在单一应力与多应力水平下,通过仿真模拟验证了所提方法的有效性。与传统方法相比,在小样本条件下,所提方法可提高形状参数（机理等同性参数）估计精度40%以上。结论 所提方法对于三参数威布尔分布的参数估计和寿命评估具有较高精度,能够有效克服传统方法的不足,在加速寿命试验评估中具有良好的应用效果。     

STREAM HEALTH AFTER URBANIZATION1

ABSTRACT: Urban development has compromised the quality of physical elements offish habitat in low‐order spawning and rearing streams. In order to identify where priorities should lie in stream rehabilitation, field surveys of a number of streams were conducted near Vancouver, British Columbia. All of the streams were located in watersheds which were urbanized approximately 20 years earlier. The study watersheds ranged from 5 to 77 percent total impervious area (percent TIA). The urban streambeds were found to have less fine material and slightly higher values of intragravel dissolved oxygen than in rural streams. This improved gravel quality is attributed to the higher peak flows generated by impervious areas, and the reduced recruitment of fine material in the urban watersheds. Summer base flow was uniformly low when imperviousness was above 40 percent, evidenced by a decrease in velocity rather than water depth. Large woody debris (LWD) was scarce in all streams with > 20 percent TIA. A healthy buffer zone and abundant LWD were found to stabilize stream banks. The introduction of LWD is considered the most important strategy for stream rehabilitation. Stormwater detention ponds, in contrast, are concluded to have few hydrological benefits if constructed after a stream has reached its urban equilibrium.     

新型人工合成膨润土防渗卷材的研制及其渗透性能

将膨润土和胶粘剂加以混合 ,结合国外先进的粘结工艺 ,制成防渗卷材 .对膨润土类型、外封装用材料及胶粘剂的确定 ,卷材的成型工艺及卷材的渗透性能研究结果表明 ,钠基膨润土的渗透性能优于钙基膨润土 .在人工钠土中无论是加入聚丙烯酸酯类乳液还是 PM植物胶 ,在掺加的比例一定时 ,随着密度的增大 ,渗透系数下降 ;在相同密度下 ,随着掺加的比例增大 ,渗透系数下降 .人工钠土的渗透系数与水力坡度呈线性关系 .膨润土及其胶粘剂卷材与模拟浸出液间的化学配伍性较好 .膨润土卷材具有良好的自封闭性 ,在材料受损的情况下也能够通过自封闭作用达到较好的“焊接”效果 .     

非平衡吸附对核素迁移的影响及平衡速率参数的确定

放射性核素以水为载体在多孔介质中迁移时,吸附和解吸作用不容忽视吸附和解吸是一非平衡过程．非平衡状态下吸附和解吸达到平衡的快慢程度可以用平衡速率参数a来表征本文首次定量分析了非平衡吸附对核素迁移的影响,提出基于室内分配系数实验求取a值的方法,并将室内实验得出的a值同原位核素迁移试验拟合值进行比较;结果表明用此方法求出的a值可作为非平衡吸附核素迁移数学模型的主要参数依据。     

牛顿法计算Sarma法边坡安全系数

根据Sarm a法的基本假定即条块侧面与底面抗剪强度按同一比例调用,将斜条块侧面的推力分解为分别与摩擦力和凝聚力有关的2个分量,由条块力的平衡条件,推导出更为简洁的隐含安全系数的条块推力递推方程。为了加速收敛,采用牛顿法迭代法计算安全系数,并推导出计算中所需有关导数的解析表达式。同时,利用所得推力递推方程重新推导出了临界地震加速度系数Kc的显式表达式,该式与原始的Sarm a法等效,但形式上更为简明且便于应用。算例表明,本文的改进的Sarm a法算法收敛迅速,迭代3~5步即可达到工程所需精度,计算结果与经典算例Sarm a法解答及塑性力学理论解均非常接近。     

喀斯特高镉地质背景区水稻镉的富集、转运特征与机理

西南喀斯特地区土壤镉(Cd)具有"高地质背景、低污染风险"特征,但超过《土壤环境质量农用地土壤污染风险管控标准》风险管制值的区域是否仍具有低风险性,是迫切需要回答的问题.本文在罗甸县喀斯特峰丛谷地选择一个高Cd 土壤水稻种植区,开展土壤-水稻系统Cd含量特征和土壤Cd赋存形态等方面的研究,评价水稻各部位Cd的富集、转运...     

灾害救助评估理论方法研究与展望

灾害救助评估是一种辅助决策工具,收集和分析灾害及灾害救助信息,为灾害救助活动的决策、规划和控制提供有效的信息支持,其内涵主要包括4个方面:①评估灾害对社会产生的影响;②灾害应急抢险需求与方案优化;③救助资源可获得性;④促进和加速灾后恢复与区域发展的可行性。灾害救助过程包括规划、数据收集与调查、分析与解读、趋势预测、辅助决策、灾害监测等6个环节。灾害救助评估内容按照灾害救助阶段总体分为应急快速评估和灾后详细评估两大类。其中,应急快速评估主要侧重于灾情和应急救助需求,是灾害救助评估的传统研究领域,为应急抢险和受灾人口基本生活保障提供信息支持;灾后详细评估则主要用于全面分析灾害对社会、经济、生态环境系统造成的损失和影响,为灾后恢复与重建提供辅助决策支持。     

Optimization of carbon dioxide absorption in a continuous bubble column reactor using response surface methodology

Carbon dioxide absorption using amine based solvents is a well-known approach for carbon dioxide removal. Especially with the increasing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions, there is a need for an optimization approach capable of multifactor calibration and prediction of interactions. Since conventional methods based on empirical relations are not efficiently applicable, this study investigates use of Response Surface Methodology as a strong optimization tool. A bubble column reactor was used and the effect of solvent concentration (10.0, 20.0 and 30.0 vol%), flow rate (4.0, 5.0 and 6.0 L min⁻¹), diffuser pore size (0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 mm) and temperature (20.0, 25.0 and 30.0°C) on the absorption capacity and also overall mass transfer coefficient was evaluated. The optimization results for maintaining maximum capacity and overall mass transfer coefficient revealed that different optimization targets led to different tuned operational factors. Overall mass transfer coefficient decreased to 34.7 min⁻¹ when the maximum capacity was the desired target. High reaction rate along with the highest absorption capacity was set as desirable two factor target in this application. As a result, a third scenario was designed to maximize both mass transfer coefficient and absorption capacity simultaneously. The optimized condition was achieved when a gas flow rate of 5.9 L min⁻¹, MEA solution of 29.6 vol%, diffuser pore size of 0.5 mm and temperature of 20.6°C was adjusted. At this condition, mass transfer coefficient reached a maximum of 38.4 min⁻¹, with a forecasted achievable absorption capacity of 120.5 g CO₂ per kg MEA.     

膜基吸收恶臭气体H_2S的实验研究

选甲基二乙醇胺溶液为吸收剂,聚丙烯中空纤维膜作接触器,通过单因素实验研究膜基吸收恶臭气体H2S的影响因素。结果表明,吸收剂浓度对脱硫率影响明显,适当的吸收剂浓度是保证脱硫率的关键因素;进气速率增大可以提高传质系数、增强传质,但脱硫率降低;提高进气压力可以提高脱硫率,但不如吸收剂浓度影响大;吸收剂循环使用对脱硫率影响较大,应在满足出气要求的前提下,合理控制循环次数和循环比例。对含H2S347mg/m3的进气,实验得到的适宜的脱硫条件为:进气流速0.35m3/h、压力0.1MPa,吸收剂流量0.40m3/h、浓度3mol/L。在该条件下,单级膜组件脱硫率稳定在96%以上。     

地基遥感监测杭州地区气溶胶光学特性及大气环境变化

利用2006年4月—2007年4月杭州地区4个监测点 CE-318太阳分光光度计的实测数据, 精确反演了杭州地区实测日期气溶胶的光学特性,并分析了其时空分布特征.结果表明:随着大气气溶胶混浊度系数(β)的增加,波长指数(α)减小.大气气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)与β存在较好的线性相关(相关系数达0.90),且较为一致地反映了该地区春季大气污染严重,夏季相对清洁,晚秋初冬为过渡反弹期的季节变化特点;但在空间上二者又表现出不同的细节特征,主要是与气象参数和下垫面特征紧密相关.分析近地面ρ(PM₁₀)的实测数据可知, AOD与ρ(PM₁₀₎的日均值具有很好的相关性,相关系数为 0.74,明显高于二者小时均值的相关系数.