灰色关联分析评价法在玉溪"三湖"水质评价中的应用

应用灰色关联分析评价法和叠加综合指数模型,分别对玉溪"三湖"丰水期、枯水期水质现状进行了评价.     

Mitigation of CO2 Emissions from the EU-15 Building Stock. Beyond the EU Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (9 pp)

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Goal Scope and Background. The European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings which came into force 16 December 2002 will be implemented in the legislation of Member States by 4 January 2006. In addition to the aim of improving the overall energy efficiency of new buildings, large existing buildings will become a target for improvement, as soon as they undergo significant renovation. The building sector is responsible for about 40% of Europe's total end energy consumption and hence this Directive is an important step for the European Union in order that it should reach the level of saving required by the Kyoto Agreement. In this the EU is committed to reduce CO2 emissions relative to the base year of 1990 by 8 per cent, by 2010. But what will be the impact of the new Directive, how large could be the impacts of extending the obligation for energy efficiency retrofitting towards smaller buildings? Can improvement of the insulation offset or reduce the growing energy consumption from the increasing installation of cooling installations? EURIMA, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association and EuroACE, the European Alliance of Companies for Energy Efficiency in Buildings, asked Ecofys to address these questions.

Methods

The effect of the EPB Directive on the emissions associated with the heating energy consumption of the total EU 15 building stock has been examined in a model calculation, using the Built Environment Analysis Model (BEAM), which was developed by Ecofys to investigate energy saving measures in the building stock. The great complexity of the EU-15 building stock had to be simplified by examining five standard buildings with eight insulation standards, which are assigned to building age and renovation status. Furthermore, three climatic regions (cold, moderate, warm) were distinguished for the calculation of the heating energy demand. This gave a basic 210 building types for which the heating energy demand and CO2 emissions from heating were calculated according to the principles of the European Norm EN 832.

Results and Discussion

The model calculations demonstrates that the main contributor to the total heating related CO2 emissions of 725 Mt/a from the EU building stock in 2002 is the residential sector (77%) while the remaining 23% originates from non-residential buildings. In the residential sector, single-family houses represent the largest group responsible for 60% of the total CO2 emissions equivalent to 435 Mt/a.

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- The technical potential: If all retrofit measures in the scope of the Directive were realised immediately for the complete residential and non-residential building stock the overall CO2 emission savings would add up to 82 Mt/a. An additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 69 Mt/a would be created if the scope of the Directive was extended to cover retrofit measures in multi-family dwellings (200-1000m2) and non-residential buildings smaller than 1000m2 used floor space. In addition including the large group of single-family dwellings would lead to a potential for additional CO2 emission reductions compared to the Directive of 316 Mt/a.

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- Temporal mobilization of the potential: Calculations based on the building stock as it develops over time with average retrofit rates demonstrated that regulations introduced following the EPB Directive result in a CO2 emissions decrease of 34 Mt/a by the year 2010 compared to the business as usual scenario. Extending the scope of the EPB Directive to all residential buildings (including single and multi-family dwellings), the CO2 emission savings potential over the 'business as usual' scenario could be doubled to 69 Mt/a in the year 2010. This creates an additional saving potential compared to the Directive of 36 Mt/a.

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- Cooling demand: The analysis demonstrated that in warm climatic zones the cooling demand can be reduced drastically by a combination of lowering the internal heat loads and by improved insulation. With the reduction of the heat loads to a moderate level the cooling demand, e.g. of a terraced house located in Madrid, can be reduced by an additional 85% if the insulation level is improved appropriately.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that the European Directive on Energy Performance of Buildings will have a significant impact on the CO2 emissions of the European building stock. The main saving potential lies in insulation of the existing building stock. Beyond this, CO2 emissions could, however, be greatly reduced if the scope of the Directive were to be extended to include retrofit of smaller buildings.

Recommendation and Perspective

The reductions should be seen in relation to the remaining gap of 190 Mt CO2 eq. per annum between the current emission levels of EU-15 and the target under the Kyoto-Protocol for the year 2010. The energy and industrial sector will probably contribute only a fraction of this reduction via the newly established EU emissions trading scheme and connected projects under the flexible mechanism. In addition, the traffic sector is likely to continue its growth path leading to a widening of the gap. Thus, there is likely to be considerable pressure on the EU building sector to contribute to the EU climate targets beyond what will be achieved by means of the current EPB Directive. Legislators on the EU and national level are therefore advised to take accelerated actions to tap the very significant emission reduction potentials available in the EU building stock.     

The governance of ecosystem services in river basins: An approach for structured data representation and analysis

River basins provide a wide range of ecosystem services important for human well-being. Ecosystem functions and their value to humans have been thoroughly studied. However, the role of governance characteristics for the sustainable management of ecosystem services has been largely ignored up to now. To close this gap, this article introduces the latest modifications to a database building on the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) that serve to study the relationship between water governance and management systems and their performance with regard to impacts on ecosystem services. This comprehensive approach facilitates structured data collection and representation in order to analyze single case studies or compare case studies regarding the governance and management of water resources and associated ecosystem services. It allows the user to investigate whether certain water governance characteristics, such as stakeholder involvement or vertical integration of governance levels, are associated with a change in the management of ecosystem services or a measurable change in their state. A simplified case from South Africa shows how the database modifications allow addressing links between governance and management processes on the one side and ecosystem services and the way they are handled on the other side. Applying the MTF database leads to evidence-based insights into best practices as well as failed management approaches and interventions. This in turn provides knowledge that can be transferred from science to practice supporting sustainable governance of ecosystem services.     

全国洪涝灾害警戒水域遥感数据库的研制

由于以往对发生的洪涝灾情没有形成统一的、客观的评价标准,而不同来源的各种数据往往大相径庭,使有关部门难以了解实际灾情。为此,提出了“警戒水域”的概念,利用TM和NOAA／AVHRR图像数据建立了我国七大江河地区洪涝灾害易发区的警戒水域遥感数据库,并用以指导洪涝灾情的监测与评估,为防洪救灾决策提供科学的、可靠的、时效性强的信息。该数据库的建立在我国的抗洪救灾中发挥了重要的作用。文章对其研究方法与其关键技术进行了介绍．     

Development of a Quality-Assessed Agrichemical Database For Monitoring Anthropogenic Impacts on Ground-Water Quality

The Quality–Assessed Agrichemical Contaminant Database for Nebraska Ground Water is a unique repository of nitrate and pesticide data collected by federal, state, and local agencies. Each contaminant concentration in the database has been evaluated based upon well–defined criteria that address completeness of the well–attribute data, analytical method and field and laboratory quality control practices and assigned to one of five quality levels. The quality assessment level always accompanies the contaminant concentration so that the end–user knows the quality assurance effort expended in the acquisition of the data, can select comparable data, and choose data whose quality assurance effort is commensurate with project objectives. The database can be viewed and queried on–line; downloaded in its entirety; or imported to a spreadsheet or a geographic information system. Setting criteria for data quality and assessing the level of quality have resulted in significant increases in the percentages of high quality (Levels 3–5) nitrate and pesticide data. These high quality data presently constitute 52% of the nitrate and 55% of the pesticide data.     

重庆市区地质灾害信息数据库设计

本文通过对重庆市地质灾害系统分析，得到重庆市地质灾害的基本规律，在此基础上，将重庆市各种地质灾害的信息输入计算机，基于地理信息系统（MAPGIS）建立重庆市地质灾害属性数据库，实现地质灾害空间信息管理，查询，更新以及稳定性分析，为城市地质灾害的防治和管理提供了可靠的平台。     

Access XP数据库的安全性研究

在信息化时代来临、Internet高速发展的今天,信息资源的经济和社会价值越来越明显,而数据库系统所管理、存储的数据已成为各个部门宝贵的信息资源,所以其安全保密性是目前所迫切需要解决的问题。笔者从数据库的安全性、保密性的角度,详细地阐述了MicrosoftAccessXP数据库的安全机制;探讨了实现MicrosoftAccessXP数据库不同保护级别的各种方法;还讨论了共享级安全性和用户级安全性问题。     

开发基于Web的地震目录数据库查询系统

通过对基于Browser Server体系的Web技术的分析与实践 ,开发了一种在分布式计算环境下 ,基于动态网页的数据库查询系统的方法 ,并介绍了在SGIIRIX 6 .5系统下对之的实现过程以及所采用的开发工具等。     

基于GIS技术的县市级防汛信息系统

防汛减灾是县市水利部门的重点工作。以临海市防汛决策指挥系统为实例，探讨了基于GIS技术，采用Client／Server模式的防汛信息系统的解决方案。根据防汛业务管理工作的实际要求，分析了系统的属性和空间数据库的存储结构和建库方法，实现了防汛信息系统的各主要模块及其功能。     

专业化、多样化与产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现研究

新一轮扶贫攻坚阶段,贫困地区实现可持续减贫的关键不在于现有经济增长模式下如何提高转移支付的精度和效率,而在于真正改变贫困地区的经济发展理念,从盯住经济总量增长转向用减贫目标统领经济发展。产业结构与贫困减缓的关系影响着贫困地区产业发展的政策制定,但既往研究对何种产业结构更有助于贫困减缓没有形成共识。本文基于产业专业化和多样化视角,分析了专业化、多样化影响贫困减缓的理论机制,并利用2004—2014年中国省级面板数据,对专业化、相关多样化、不相关多样化与FGT贫困指数的关系进行了门限回归和稳健性检验。检验结果确认了产业结构减贫效应的动态异质表现:专业化的减贫效应在产品生命周期的初始和发展阶段趋于增强,并且经济密度更小、距离技术前沿更远的地区,专业化的减贫效果更显著;多样化的减贫绩效低于专业化,且相关多样化的减贫效应高于不相关多样化。细分产业来看,第三产业相关多样化比其他多样化结构更具减贫效果。贫困地区在减贫的产业结构选择上,首要目标是改善专业化程度,其次是在多样化的既定前提下,谋求相关多样化,尤其是第三产业的相关多样化。专业化和相关多样化对不同贫困群体的影响也存在差别,既往产业结构更有利于贫困线附近群体的贫困减缓,而对深度贫困群体的溢出不足。因此,在塑造合宜减贫产业结构,改善低技能劳动力需求的同时,还应辅以改善深度贫困人口劳动力供给的政策,改善其自我发展能力和经济机会,从而增强从益贫产业结构中获益的能力。