双重预防机制在家具制造业的应用与实践

为了减少安全事故的发生,进一步加强和规范企业生产现场的安全管理,探索双重预防机制在企业安全管理中的应用,结合家具制造企业安全生产现状,运用风险分级管控与隐患排查的相关理论,详细论述了企业构建双重预防体系的要点及方法,并提出了双重预防体系的监督与考核机制。实践结果证明,双重预防机制是一个统一的有机结合体,只有将风险分级管控体系和隐患排查治理体系有机结合,才能将导致事故发生的根源性因素进行有效识别和管控,双重预防机制建设也是一个动态管理的过程,需要及时进行监督、考核和调整。     

建筑安全风险因素分级排序的风险矩阵法

为减少风险分级排序时产生的风险结,在引入施工安全事故频率的基础上,采用单元格细化和Borda序值法改进原有的风险矩阵法。改进后的方法使得风险等级数量增加,风险结数量减少。将该方法应用于脚手架工程的风险因素的分级与排序,风险等级分为6级,且实现了12个因素的明确排序。     

交联剂TAIC反应风险评估分析

利用全自动反应量热仪和绝热加速量热仪等相关实验仪器检测出TAIC(三烯丙基异氰尿酸酯)合成反应的反应热、比热容及热稳定性等数据,依据绝热温升、工艺温度、技术最高温度、最大反应速率到达时间及失控体系可能达到的最高温度这5个温度参数按照评估标准从分解热、严重度、可能性、矩阵、工艺危险度这5个方面分别进行评估。通过对热参数及实验过程进行分析提出降低工艺危险等级的工艺优化方法。根据最终评估结果对TAIC生产装置的安全性进行评价,提出相应的整改措施及建议。     

基于AHP-联系熵的应急预案实施过程风险评估

应急预案制定后的实施对于事故发生后预案的顺利运行至关重要,因此,有必要对应急预案实施过程的风险水平进行度量。以应急预案实施过程作为研究对象,基于风险理论与AHP-联系熵耦合方法开展风险评估。以应急预案实施过程风险水平为目标层,应急预案的宣传教育和培训、应急资源的定期检查落实、应急演习训练、应急预案的实用性检验、应急预案电子化、事故回顾等过程要素作为策略层,实施方法科学高效、调动工作者积极的态度、领导的重视和能力、设备的完整性作为方案层,形成应急预案实施过程风险评估三级模型;运用联系熵表征风险标准与应急预案实施过程风险水平这2个集对之间的关联性,在AHP结构模型和权重分配的基础上计算加权熵并得到目标层的总联系熵,对比标准熵区间得到应急预案实施过程的整体风险等级。结果表明,采用AHP-联系熵度量方法提高了评价结果的结构性和准确性,比传统直接加权的方法更符合实际情况。     

“T”型地铁换乘站多点火灾工况下综合火灾危险性研究

为探究大型地铁站多线路火灾场景中的综合危险性,采用火灾动力学软件FDS构建“T”型换乘站全尺寸模型,对不同火源位置、不同火源功率以及是否开启地铁排烟风机等12组工况进行数值模拟;采用性能化方法确定可用疏散时间,并通过综合火灾风险评估方法计算各工况总安全指数。结果表明:1号线站厅层和2号线站台层双点火灾为最不利火灾场景;1号线站台层和2号线站厅层双点火灾为相对安全火灾场景;火源功率的增大会增加地铁火灾危险性,但不同火源位置工况中的安全指数变化趋势相似;排烟模式开启前,1号线站厅层火灾会导致较大的火灾危险性;排烟模式开启后,地铁总安全指数显著上升且安全指数变化趋势改变,此时2号线站台层火灾会导致较大的火灾危险性。     

基于社会技术系统的复工企业疫情防控风险路径研究*

为对复工企业疫情防控中的风险致因因素进行分析,探寻复工企业疫情防控的风险路径,基于社会技术系统理论,建立宏观工效学模型,通过查阅并分析国家、地方政府、企业文件以及相关文献,从人员、技术、组织管理、内部环境及外部环境5个子系统出发,识别出16个复工企业疫情失控致因因素;运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建复工企业疫情防控关系网络,对各因素节点中心度进行计算,分析各节点在网络中的位置及影响程度;采用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行参数学习和推理学习,找出复工企业疫情失控的最大致因链。结果表明:复工企业疫情失控关系网络中,存在政府监督管理不力→防疫物资筹备不足→日常监管不到位,政府监督管理不力→ 防疫宣传、培训缺失→员工防疫知识欠缺,政府监督管理不力→防疫宣传、培训缺失→日常监管不到位3条最长风险路径。研究结果可帮助复工企业针对最长风险路径中的因素进行管理,从而有效地为复工企业防疫提供理论支持。     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识*

为“挖掘”输油泵机组风险根源,降低设备预知性维护难度,结合输油泵多准则风险评价,提出1种基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识方法,运用等级全息建模方法将输油泵系统分解为泵体结构、管理因素、环境因素、操作因素、技术因素、运行因素、设备安装7个子系统进行定性和定量分析。结果表明:相比危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）、事故树分析（FTA）等传统风险辨识方法,等级全息建模（HHM）对轴承等关键部件以及压力等运行参数的监测更为深入,能够有效辨识输油泵机组高风险情景,提升输油泵的风险辨识效率。     

Does longevity impact the severity of traffic crashes? A comparative study of young-older and old-older drivers

Introduction: This article analyzes the effect of driver’s age in crash severity with a particular focus on those over the age of 65. The greater frequency and longevity of older drivers around the world suggests the need to introduce a possible segmentation within this group at risk, thus eliminating the generic interval of 65 and over as applied today in road safety data and in the automobile insurance sector. Method: We investigate differences in the severity of traffic crashes among two subgroups of older drivers –young-older (65–75) and old-older (75+), and findings are compared with the age interval of drivers under 65. Here, we draw on data for 2016 provided by Spanish Traffic Authority. Parametric and semi-parametric regression models are applied. Results: We identified the factors related to the crash, vehicle, and driver that have a significant impact on the probability of the crash being slight, serious, or fatal for the different age groups. Conclusions: We found that crash severity and the expected costs of crashes significantly increase when the driver is over the age of 75. Practical Applications: Our results have obvious implications for regulators responsible for road safety policies – most specifically as they consider there should be specific driver licensing requirements and driving training for elderly – and for the automobile insurance industry, which to date has not examined the impact that the longevity of drivers is likely to have on their balance sheets.     

Morphological characteristics of flashing jet throughout superheated liquid release

Many release problems involve two-phase releases of hazardous materials of superheated liquids with high energy into the atmosphere. Such accidents are accompanied by violent phase transition and form catastrophic flashing jets. In this work, experimental and theoretical analyses were conducted to investigate dynamic characteristics of flashing jet morphology and their dependence on pressure-decay dynamics under different storage pressures, superheats, and nozzle diameters. Flashing jet morphology and angle throughout two-phase releases were captured by a high-speed camera, and the corresponding source pressure in the superheated liquid tank was measured simultaneously. Results show that three typical phases, expansion, stabilization, and decay, are characterized throughout two-phase release based on the evolution of flashing jet morphology. The jet initially expands gradually due to the enhancement of phase transition intensity, and then keeps stable when the intensity reaches its maximum, and terminally decays rapidly due to the depletion of superheated liquid. Phase transition intensity at the nozzle exit is mainly controlled by the pressure-decay dynamics. Bubbles nucleation inception sites gradually move upstream of the nozzle during the pressure decay process increasing the phase transition intensity. The increase of storage pressure, superheat and nozzle diameter promotes the mechanical and thermodynamic effects on the jet breakup. The significant increase of mechanical and thermodynamic effects effectively accelerates droplets evaporation and further affects flashing jet morphology.